Commodities Market Impact Weather

Ongoing Central US Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Consistent rain indicated for the central United States and limited precipitation for Europe crop areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

PERSISTENT MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a rainy pattern across the Midwest. Heavy rainfall moving through the eastern Midwest the last few days has caused very wet field conditions and led to flooding. Rain is still noted near the Ohio River. Many areas have seen flooding from the system and planting has been delayed. Otherwise, rain has been beneficial to emerging crops. Additional moderate-to-heavy rain is likely during the end of this week and through the entire final week of May.

RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS

Rain is indicated to cross the Southern Plains through the weekend, including drier western sectors. A slow-moving trough will bring periods of rainfall to the entire region through Sunday, including those drier sections, benefiting developing to reproductive wheat. Wetter weather will continue in the southeastern Plains next week.

CONTINUED NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Northern Plains crop areas have multiple rounds of rain indicated through Sunday. This will be beneficial to emerging crops but will lead to additional planting delays and prevented planting questions.

VARIABLE DELTA TREND

The Delta has a mixed forecast over the next 10 days. The five-day period has a dry trend. Showers and thunderstorms offer above normal rain in the six-to-10-day period.

SCATTERED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Southeastern U.S. crop areas have widely scattered showers in the five-day forecast. Dryness easing will be minimal.

WET AND COOL FOR PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, planting has been delayed by wet and cool conditions. Showers are on the increase over the next couple of days, focusing on drier sections of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Cold weather may return late next week and will need to be monitored for frost and snow potential on emerging crops.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA REGION RAIN

Across Russia and Ukraine, scattered rainfall is in store through the next week. Indicated coverage is more extensive in southern Russia. Crop conditions have improved; however, the wheat crop is expected to be lower than a year ago due to dryness in late winter and early spring. USDA notes that 60-day rainfall remains well-below half of normal from southern Ukraine into southern portions of Russia's Southern District (Krasnodar Krai) despite recent showers.

LIMITED EUROPE RAIN PROSPECT

Western Europe crop areas including France and Germany are turning dry. The next week to 10 days continues to offer only light rainfall with below normal totals. The drier trend is unfavorable for wheat.

DRYNESS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Across Brazil, central crop areas (Mato Grosso, Goias) have very little rain in the forecast through the end of the week. This bears watching for possible adverse impact on the safrinha corn crop. Southern Brazil crop areas have heavy rain forecast in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with some flood potential.

CENTRAL ARGENTINA RAIN CHANCE

Argentina central crop areas have moderate rain in the forecast through late week. The rain would be favorable for wheat.

BENEFICIAL AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Australia wheat areas continue with adequate moisture for wheat seeding and early crop development. Western Australia areas could use some additional precipitation.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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