Commodities Market Impact Weather

Midwest Weekend Freeze

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
Connect with Bryce:

OMAHA (DTN) -- Freeze conditions over the Midwest to start the weekend and continued rain prospects in southern Brazil and the Black Sea region are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

FREEZE FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to locally heavy rain in the southern and eastern Midwest Friday. A very cold pattern for the season is then indicated going into the middle of the weekend Saturday. Freeze potential is widespread in the region. The cold threatens to damage soft red winter wheat and will delay the emergence of planted corn and soybeans.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN CHANCE

In the Southern Plains, drought conditions in western areas have been stressful to winter wheat. The forecast brings in light to moderate rain, locally heavy, during the next week. This prospect includes the driest western areas and will be closely watched. Temperatures are indicated to trend much below normal, including the chance for frost. A hard freeze in winter wheat is not suggested at this time.

COLD PATTERN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A cold pattern is forming for the Northern Plains over the next five days, including a chance for subfreezing temperatures. This is followed by periods of moderate showers through the end of next week. Fieldwork and planting delays are in store, including the prospect of prevented planting.

BRIEF DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has moderate to heavy rain for the end of the week. Following the rain, mostly drier conditions will favor crop activity in the next week. The pattern is favorable for crop development; however, temperatures will fall well below normal this weekend into early next week and slow growth.

ADDITIONAL RUSSIA AND UKRAINE RAIN

Wheat areas in the Black Sea region of Russia and Ukraine have moderate rain forecast through the weekend. This is additional rain following recent rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters). The rain is favorable for winter wheat.

FAVORABLE EUROPE RAIN

Crop areas of Europe have improved soil moisture due to recent rainfall. Additional beneficial showers move through over the weekend into early next week.

INCREASED SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN CHANCE

Rain chances continue to increase in southern Brazil over the next week. Highest chances are in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, the second- and third-largest corn-producing states. Central areas have lighter rain ahead. The states of Goias and Minas Gerais remain dry and have reduced yield prospects. Soil moisture is favorable for corn in the top producing state of Mato Grosso.

LIGHT ARGENTINA RAIN

Argentina crop areas have light rain forecast through the next several days. The drier trend benefits corn and soybean harvest; however, recent dryness has been unfavorable for river transport of commodities.

USEFUL AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Australia winter wheat planting is more than half finished. Soil moisture has improved in the past two months, most notably in the eastern wheat areas. Additional moisture would be welcome in Western Australia.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
Connect with Bryce: