Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A sharp cold wave during the Mothers Day weekend in the central U.S. and continued shower prospects for the Black Sea region are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST CHILLS FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate rainfall to spread across the southern Midwest late this week. Following this rain, cold air is in store through the weekend. Temperatures may fall below freezing for several nights into early next week. This will need to be monitored for frost on recently emerged crops and developing wheat. The forecast could bring fieldwork and planting delays. Some crop loss and forced replanting is possible.

COOLER SOUTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Southern Plains, mainly dry conditions are in store through the end of the week. A notably cool pattern is indicated during the upcoming weekend and will bear watching for possible impact on reproductive winter wheat. Moderate rain is featured early next week, with coverage including the drier western sector.

COLD PATTERN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, moderate rain chances are in store Thursday, followed by a cold pattern Friday through the Mothers Day weekend. Temperatures may go below freezing and will need to be monitored. Fieldwork delays are likely. The cold event will be followed by periods of showers through the end of next week.

SHORT-TERM DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has moderate showers Thursday night through Friday. Otherwise, fair planting conditions will exist for the next week to 10 days. Developing crops should find generally favorable weather for development, though temperatures will fall well below normal this weekend into early next week and slow growth.

RAIN FORMS IN BLACK SEA REGION

Across the Black Sea region, periods of moderate scattered showers continue through Friday in Ukraine and through the weekend in Russia, easing recent dryness. One to two inches and locally more in Russia this week could reverse much of the dryness concerns in the region.

FAVORABLE TREND IN EUROPE

Crop areas of Europe have seen recent rains ease dryness. Additional beneficial showers move through over the weekend into early next week, though temperatures will go below normal for a few days. Developing-to-reproductive wheat and rapeseed to the south continue to see favorable conditions.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAINFALL

Brazil will have scattered showers moving south to north this week. Some areas will have dryness easing; however, rainfall weakens as the rainmaking front lifts northward. Southern areas still harvesting will find some delays. Central areas will likely not receive enough rainfall to undo the recent dryness. Northern areas that have had better soil moisture conditions will likely see the least amount of rainfall. Dryness could start becoming a concern for developing corn and cotton.

DRIER ARGENTINA FORECAST

Argentina crop areas will be dry through the next several days. The drier trend benefits harvest; however, recent dryness has been unfavorable for river transport of commodities. A cold pattern during the next two days could cause some localized frost to any new winter wheat in the south.

IMPROVED AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Australia winter wheat planting activities will continue to increase over the course of the next week. Soil moisture is adequate and was boosted by a system bringing moderate to heavy rain in the east last week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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