DTN Ag Weather Brief

By John Baranick
DTN Meterologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

For the upper-level pattern, the northern stream features a trough in Alaska through northwest Canada, a cutoff ridge over northern Canada, and a trough over eastern Canada. The southern stream has a ridge in the eastern Pacific, a cutoff trough over the West, and a trough working across the Midwest through the Northeast. The northern stream trough over the Prairies will lift northeast over the weekend, being replaced in the east by a brief ridge. The northern stream trough in Alaska and northwest Canada will dive down into the northern U.S. by Sunday where it will combine with the southern stream cutoff low in the Plains to produce a strong storm system.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the trough pattern will hold over most of the country through the week and a ridge over the Eastern Pacific will try to move into the west toward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement, but I will use the European ensembles, which have generally been more consistent.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal for most of the country, with above normal temperatures in the East. Temperatures will continue to be well below normal from the Rockies to the Midwest through the period, while temperatures in the East will fall below normal and temperatures in the west will moderate closer to normal or even a little above normal by next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...7 AT ESTCOURT STATION ME AND PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM WEDNESDAY...SAN JUAN PR 1.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A trough will continue to move across the Great Lakes and Northeast through Friday while a cutoff low will meander around the West until Saturday, eventually moving across the country this weekend with a potent system. The result will be a general ridge over the Eastern Pacific and trough over much of the U.S. for next week. The ridge may start to move into the West toward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement, but I will use the European ensembles, which have generally been more consistent.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal for most of the country, with above normal temperatures in the East. Temperatures will continue to be well below normal from the Rockies to the Midwest through the period, while temperatures in the East will fall below normal and temperatures in the west will moderate closer to normal or even a little above normal by next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Southern areas have received very little precipitation over the last couple of months, which has damaged corn and soybeans. Central areas have also seen more passing showers than soaking ones which has raised concerns over soil moisture for developing corn and cotton. Northern areas continue to see periods of showers which favor the developing corn and cotton in these areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Drier and cooler weather is expected over the next couple of days. Mature areas will likely benefit while the second-cropped soybeans still filling will need to be monitored for damage should the dry conditions continue through the early half of April. The next front moves through with showers late weekend into early next week with beneficial showers to any soybeans.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/FIELDWORK): Temperatures will fall back below normal for the next week or two, stressing livestock, especially new calves and lambs, and putting a hold on fieldwork. Low temperatures this weekend through the middle of next week may dip into the single digits above zero.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Developing winter wheat would benefit from any showers in the southwest section of the region, but none are forecast until this weekend. Temperatures will fall below normal this weekend and continue for several days at the least. Temperatures become well below normal for several days and could be damaging to developing winter wheat. Low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s are forecast for portions of Nebraska and Kansas next week.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): More widespread moderate to heavy rain moves through over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures turn well below normal for at least the following several days. This would put a stop to any planting activities.

DELTA (SOYBEANS, COTTON, FIELDWORK): With showers being more isolated over the last couple of days, some fieldwork, including planting, may have been done.

Moderate to heavy precipitation returns this weekend followed by a few days of temperatures well below normal. The combination will put a halt on fieldwork for several days.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Overall, conditions continue to be good for filling corn and developing sugarcane.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): There is adequate soil moisture for developing winter crops as they break dormancy, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last two months have been beneficial for developing to reproductive winter wheat and rapeseed. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India.

Extensive damage has been reported for the early cotton and winter wheat crops in Pakistan. If this situation cannot be controlled before the main planting season in May, the cotton crop will surely suffer.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/FIELDWORK): Low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 7 Celsius occurred last week for many areas, including the southeast. Wheat in the tillering to jointing stage was vulnerable, but widespread damage is not expected as temperatures were likely just warm enough. Otherwise, conditions appear rather favorable for developing winter wheat and rapeseed. Several dry days this week will allow saturated soils to drain for fieldwork and planting.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Rains have returned to the region over the last two weeks, but were too late for a damaged crop in Morocco. Further east in Algeria and Tunisia, less damage was reported to a crop a bit further behind developmentally, and the showers were very welcome to the crop going into reproduction.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/FIELDWORK): Low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 7 Celsius occurred last week, but widespread damage is not expected to have happened as temperatures were just warm enough. While soil moisture has been adequate in Ukraine, it has not been so in Russia, where precipitation for the month of March was only 25% of normal. Several dry days are expected this week which will not be helpful to developing winter crops, but allow for fieldwork to be done.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Outside of some nuisance showers, drier weather this week will benefit the harvest of a damaged summer crop. While the drought continues, soil moisture and irrigation reserves were boosted by prior rains as we head to winter wheat planting, which starts in mid-April.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated snow north Thursday. Scattered showers developing Friday night-Saturday. Moderate to heavy precipitation Sunday with snow to the north.

Showers ending early Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below to well below normal Monday.

East: Isolated snow far north Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers west Saturday.

Moderate rain Sunday-Monday with snow in Wisconsin. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal west and above normal east Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated snow north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday.

Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Friday, below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night-Saturday.

Scattered showers Sunday, snow north. Snow showers possible Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday, well below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Showers possible, including snow, Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday-Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry the rest of Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered moderate showers Saturday night-Sunday. A few light showers possible Monday night. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Light showers possible Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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