Commodities Market Impact Weather

Slow Midwest Fieldwork

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Prospects for wet Midwest conditions to slow fieldwork, and a mainly dry pattern over Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

WET MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy precipitation in the western Midwest through the end of the week. Eastern areas have lighter precipitation. The entire region has additional episodes of rain during the next week to 10 days. Fieldwork will be delayed.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION

In the Southern Plains, western areas continue to need moisture for winter wheat in post-dormancy development. However, very little precipitation is forecast. Temperatures will briefly fall well below normal through Saturday. Temperatures should not get cold enough to cause damage.

SNOW AND COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains temperatures will continue well below normal through Saturday. This very cold pattern, along with moderate ice and snow over eastern sections, will be stressful to livestock and will bring a new delay to fieldwork and delayed corn harvest. Temperatures rise closer to normal briefly next week before going back to below normal, possibly much below normal values.

LIMITED DELTA FIELDWORK

Recent moderate-to-heavy rain in the Delta has kept soils moist, though some drying will be possible through Friday. The window of opportunity to get into the fields will be short as precipitation returns over the weekend and continues into next week.

MINIMAL RAIN FOR BRAZIL

In Brazil's crop areas, scattered light showers are expected Thursday and Friday. Total precipitation will be below normal. Central crop areas may incur stress to safrinha corn because of limited crop moisture. Southern areas have already incurred crop loss due to dryness.

SCATTERED ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina will have drier and cooler conditions through next week. Mature areas will likely benefit while the second-cropped soybeans still filling will need to be monitored for damage should the dry conditions continue through the remainder of the first half of April.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA MOISTURE

In the Black Sea region, soil moisture is variable. Moisture has been adequate in Ukraine, but not in Russia. Russia precipitation in March was 75% below normal. Vegetative winter wheat in the tillering to jointing stage is susceptible to cold. Low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 7 Celsius (23 to 19 Fahrenheit) occurred earlier this week. While crops will be vulnerable, widespread damage is not expected.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Showers with light-to-moderate rain continue in store for eastern Australia, notably in New South Wales. Soil moisture will improve ahead of wheat planting beginning in mid-April.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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