Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Saturated Midwest soils leading to fieldwork delays in the Midwest, and variable rain conditions in South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

WET MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a rainy and wet week in the Midwest. The weekend features widespread moderate-to-heavy rain. Another system will move through in the middle of next week with moderate precipitation, most likely over southern areas. A third system may bring moderate showers to western areas in the latter half of next week. The rain will add to saturated soil conditions and lead to flood threats along with delaying spring fieldwork.

SCATTERED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, a storm system Monday and Tuesday is forecast to bring moderate rainfall to eastern sectors. Drier sections in the southwest will have lighter amounts. Winter wheat coming out of dormancy would benefit from any showers in this area. Temperatures will briefly fall well below normal Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures should not get cold enough to cause damage except for any areas in the northwest that have broken dormancy.

COLDER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have a colder forecast, with temperatures indicated to fall well below normal later this week. In addition, rain and snow are indicated. This combination will hinder fieldwork and will be stressful for livestock.

DELTA STORMS

The Delta had moderate-to-heavy rain and severe storm activity during the past weekend. Additional rain is indicated during the first half of this week. Saturated soils and delayed fieldwork will continue. Another rain system is forecast to move through the region at the end of the week.

MIXED BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, southern areas saw very little rainfall this weekend, with most areas remaining dry, stressing filling corn and soybeans. More moderate showers are expected midweek. Showers were mostly isolated over central and northern areas, benefitting newly planted corn and cotton where they occurred. Soil moisture has been dropping for some areas and could start to stress developing corn and cotton if showers do not return as expected later this week into the weekend.

FAVORABLE ARGENTINA PATTERN

In Argentina, scattered showers continue through the middle of the week. Prospects are favorable for filling corn and soybeans. Drier and cooler weather is expected late this week into next week. Mature areas will likely benefit while the second-cropped soybeans still filling will need to be monitored for damage should the dry conditions continue through the early half of April.

COLD WATCH IN EUROPE

Western and southern Europe wheat areas continue with a colder forecast during this week. Low temperatures are forecast in the range of minus to minus 7 Celsius (23 to 19 degrees Fahrenheit). This colder trend may cause some shock to winter wheat, which is several weeks ahead of normal in its post-dormancy development.

CHILLY BLACK SEA FORECAST

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine will have low temperatures in the range of minus 5 to minus 7 C (23 to 19 F) during the next five days. No significant damage to wheat is expected, even with the crop about a month earlier than average in post-dormancy development.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Australia crop areas continue to see periods of rain showers. The moisture is favorable ahead of wheat planting later in April.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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