DTN Ag Weather Brief

By John Baranick
DTN Meterologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

For the upper-level pattern, the northern stream features a broad trough from northwest Canada through the Prairies and into eastern Canada and a weak ridge approaching Greenland. The southern stream features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the Eastern Pacific, a trough in the west, a ridge over the Rockies through the eastern U.S., and a trough off the east coast. The trough over the West will slide into the Rockies for Friday and pull northeast through the country through the weekend. The trough currently in the Gulf of Alaska will replace it in the west by the end of the weekend, moving into the Rockies on Monday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the eastern trough lifts out of the region while the central one parks itself in the east for the end of the week. A ridge fills in behind it over the west and central states but another ripple may bring a weak storm to the northern tier late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair to poor agreement, and have shown some run-to-run inconsistency. I prefer the European models, but note that there could be some variation in the forecast for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the west and above normal in the central and southeast. The cool anomalies will wash out as they move east, with temperatures near normal across most areas by the end of next week. Cool anomalies work back into the Northwest behind the ripple in the ridge. The ensemble forecasts I am using wash out the differences between the models, which are somewhat significant.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...1 AT CLAYTON LAKE ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 WEDNESDAY...NORFOLK VA 1.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A trough in the west will move through the country Friday through the weekend. Another trough moves through the states early next week, parking itself over the East Coast toward the end of the week. A broad ridge will develop behind the system for the majority of the week. A ripple in the pattern may bring a brief storm system to the west and central U.S. late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair to poor agreement, and have shown some run-to-run inconsistency. I prefer the European models, but note that there could be some variation in the forecast for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the west and above normal in the central and southeast. The cool anomalies will wash out as they move east, with temperatures near normal across most areas by the end of next week. Cool anomalies work back into the Northwest behind the ripple in the ridge. The ensemble forecasts I am using wash out the differences between the models, which are somewhat significant.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Southern areas will remain dry this week, stressing filling corn and soybeans. Showers may return to some areas over the weekend but go dry again next week. Central growing areas will see showers returning this weekend, but some stress to the newly planted crops are possible. Northern areas should continue to see periods of showers into next week, benefitting newly planted corn and cotton.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Scattered showers were timely earlier this week over central and southern areas and may continue over the northwest growing areas into this weekend. Overall, conditions have returned to favorable for late-filling corn and soybeans, though some areas that were missed by showers this week may suffer. Additional opportunities for scattered showers are expected over the weekend into next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/FIELDWORK): Some precipitation, including snow, occurs mainly just in South Dakota through Saturday. Lighter precipitation and some melting of the snowpack in North Dakota may allow for fieldwork to pick up a bit more next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Two storms move through over the next week. Drier sections in the southwest may pick up needed moisture with both systems. Winter wheat coming out of dormancy would benefit from any showers in this area.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): The storm track continues to be through the region for a storm slowly moving through the region through the weekend. Moderate precipitation is expected for many areas. Another system will move through in the middle of next week as well with moderate precipitation.

DELTA (SOYBEANS, COTTON, FIELDWORK): Moderate rain returns to the area Saturday. Another system with moderate rain moves through early next week.

While there will be some dry days, getting fields to dry out will be difficult and continue to delay fieldwork.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Overall, conditions are good for filling corn and developing sugarcane.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter. There is adequate soil moisture for crops as they break dormancy, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India and could cause damage to the winter crops if it is not contained quickly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Cold weather over the last few days may have caused some damage to a reduced winter hardiness crop over the central and eastern portions of the continent. Colder air moves into the west Sunday and into central and eastern portions early next week, becoming a concern for winter crops in those areas. Winter wheat has already started jointing according to reports and will be very vulnerable to cold temperatures. Lows are currently forecast in the minus 5 to minus 7 Celsius range, which should not overly damage the crop.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Some much-needed precipitation has occurred over the past few days. However, soil moisture continues to run well below normal and will be tough to overcome without continued soaking rain. Even so, the damage may be irreversible for wheat entering reproductive stages in Morocco specifically.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Vegetative winter wheat in the tillering to jointing stage is susceptible to cold temperatures. A cold outbreak largely missed this area earlier this week, but another may need to be watched for early next week. Low temperatures in the minus 5 to minus 7 Celsius range should not overly damage the crop.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Drier weather recently has allowed for the harvesting of the damaged summer crops. Scattered showers into next week may cause some minor delays in the harvest. Irrigation reserves and soil moisture are adequate for now though the drought continues. The upcoming winter wheat planting season starts around mid-April.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north, moderate rain in some areas. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered moderate showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday becoming scattered and moderate Friday through Saturday. Moderate snow north. Showers ending early Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Scattered moderate showers Thursday through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday, east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers possible Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Thursday night through Friday. Showers exiting Saturday, heaviest and with snow north. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, below normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Scattered showers possible Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers moderate showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Moderate to heavy showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered moderate to heavy showers Tuesday, ending Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday, mostly in Parana. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated moderate showers over Mato Grosso and Goias. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday, mostly in Mato Grosso and Goias. Scattered showers spreading south into Mato Grosso do Sul Friday and continuing through Monday. Moderate amounts possible. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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