DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

For the upper-level pattern, the northern stream features a trough over northwest Canada into the Prairies, a weak ridge over southeast Canada, and a trough over approaching Greenland. The southern stream features a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska, a trough over the Pacific northwest and off the coast of California, a ridge over the Plains, and a trough over the east coast. The weak trough over the east slides offshore by Thursday, being replaced by the ridge.

The larger trough over the West will slide into the Rockies for Friday and pull northeast through the country through the weekend. A trough currently west of Alaska will replace that trough in the west by the end of the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the eastern trough lifts out of the region. A secondary trough moves through the country early next week, parking itself in the east for the end of the week. A ridge fills in behind it over the west and central states.

The U.S. and European models are in fair to poor agreement, and have shown some run-to-run inconsistency. I prefer the European models, but note that there could be some variation in the forecast for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will have a cool west and warm east look. The cool anomalies will wash out as they move east, with temperatures near normal across most areas by the end of next week. The ensemble forecasts I am using wash out the differences between the models, which are somewhat significant.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...104 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...17 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 PM TUESDAY...BOSTON MA 1.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A trough in the west will move through the country Friday through the weekend. Another weak trough moves through the states early next week, with a broad ridge developing behind it for the start of April.

The U.S. and European models are in fair to poor agreement, and have shown some run-to-run inconsistency. I prefer the European models, but note that there could be some variation in the forecast for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will have a cool west and warm east look. The cool anomalies will wash out as they move east, with temperatures near normal across most areas by the end of next week. The ensemble forecasts I am using wash out the differences between the models, which are somewhat significant.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Southern areas will remain dry this week, stressing filling corn and soybeans. Showers may return over the weekend. Central growing areas will see showers returning this weekend, but some stress to the newly planted crops are possible. Northern areas should continue to see periods of showers this week, benefitting newly planted corn and cotton.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Scattered showers are expected this week. Some moderate amounts are expected over central growing areas, which will help late-filling corn and soybeans, but other areas may find some more stress to these crops this week. Additional opportunities for scattered showers are expected over the weekend into next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/FIELDWORK): Some snow shows up in the forecast for Wednesday-Friday, but should be light overall. Lighter precipitation, especially in North Dakota, may allow for fieldwork to pick up a bit more next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): The storm track continues to be through the region. Drier sections in the southwest may pick up needed moisture with a system moving through early next week. Winter wheat coming out of dormancy would benefit from the showers.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): The storm track continues to be through the region this week. Moderate precipitation is expected with a couple of storms moving through. Another system may move through southern areas in the middle of next week as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS, COTTON, FIELDWORK): After a couple of dry days, a storm will move through Friday night through Saturday with moderate rain potential.

Another system moves through in the middle of next week. The dry time between storms could be enough to at least allow fields to drain out, if not allow for fieldwork to be done.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Overall, conditions are good for filling corn and developing sugarcane.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crop areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north. There have been reports of crops breaking dormancy early but look to be in good shape.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India and could cause damage to the winter crops if it is not contained quickly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): A cold outbreak this week could be a concern for a reduced winter hardiness crop over the central and eastern portions of the continent. Colder air moves into the west for this weekend into next week, becoming a concern for winter crops in those areas.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Some much-needed precipitation has occurred over the past few days. However, soil moisture is running incredibly below normal and will be tough to overcome without continued soaking rain. Damage may be irreversible for wheat entering reproductive stages.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture has increased over the region over the last week, benefitting crops breaking dormancy a month ahead of normal. A cold outbreak continues over the next couple of days and could be a concern for a reduced winter hardiness crop, especially over western areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Drier weather recently has allowed for the harvesting of the damaged summer crops. Showers look to increase later this week. Irrigation reserves and soil moisture are adequate for now though the drought continues. The upcoming winter wheat planting season starts around mid-April.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers, moderate south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered moderate showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers north Wednesday with some snow. Isolated showers Thursday becoming scattered and moderate Friday through Saturday. Moderate snow north. Showers ending early Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Scattered showers north Wednesday into Thursday with some snow. Scattered moderate showers Thursday night through Saturday, ending Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers mostly south Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers Thursday night through Friday. Showers exiting Saturday, heaviest and with snow north. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, below normal west and near normal east Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Moderate showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered moderate to heavy showers Monday-Tuesday, ending Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday, mostly in Parana. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated moderate showers over Mato Grosso and Goias. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday, mostly in Mato Grosso and Goias.

Scattered showers spreading south into Mato Grosso do Sul Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered moderate showers Wednesday. Isolated showers west Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)