DTN Ag Weather Brief

By John Baranick
DTN Meterologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska A ridge over western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is producing mild temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A migratory trough over the northern Rockies. A trough over the south-central U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located off the southwest coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair-poor agreement days 9-10. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A ridge over eastern Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. This will be an active pattern for the south-central U.S. as disturbances moves out of a trough in the southwest U.S. tracking along the boundary zone between the cool air to the west and warm air to the east. Disturbances may be moving fast enough to limit precipitation in the southern plains and the storm track is expected to be far enough to the south to limit precipitation in the northwest Midwest and northern Plains. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...86 AT FALCON LAKE AND CASTOLON TX LOW SUN...26 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SAN JUAN partial 0.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A volatile pattern this week continues into next week. A trough over the west and ridge to the east will flip by late this week, only to flip again early next week. This brings a few storms through the U.S. over the next 10 days.

The U.S. and European ensembles are in fair agreement with this pattern flip-flopping so I will use a blend of them for the forecast.

Temperatures will follow suit as the pattern changes, with warm west and cool east late this week flipping by early next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers will return to the south this week, benefitting any filling crops. Further to the north, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the major growing areas, providing plenty of moisture for newly planted cotton and safrinha (second crop) corn. Showers may be persistent enough to cause some harvest delays to soybeans. Areas off to the northeast continue to be left out of the rainfall and crop damage is expected.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Very little additional rainfall is expected this week, but temperatures will be below normal. Overall, conditions are favorable for filling corn and soybeans but showers would be helpful for some of the later developed crop.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A storm brings moderate snow Monday-Tuesday and a brief shot of below normal temperatures Tuesday-Wednesday before rising toward and above normal again. The cold does not look severe enough to overly stress livestock for most areas. The warmer temperatures later this week may help to relieve some soil moisture and melt some snowpack.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Widespread rain Sunday into Monday has improved soil moisture for western areas, but caused some flooding in eastern areas. Another system brings light to moderate snow into Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday. Colder temperatures follow behind this system but will not last long. Another system could bring rainfall and some snow early next week.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): A system continues to spread moderate to heavy rain over southern areas through Monday and into Tuesday.

Some moderate to heavy snow will develop from northeast Missouri through Michigan Tuesday through Wednesday. These two storms will continue the long-term trend for saturated soils. Another system could bring heavy rainfall and some snow early next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS, COTTON, FIELDWORK): Moderate rainfall ends later Monday. A few dry days are expected later this week but another storm could bring heavy rainfall early next week. Very wet conditions look to continue for at least the near term.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Cooler and drier weather is expected this week after a weekend with plenty of rainfall. Showers look to return by this weekend. Overall good conditions for filling corn and developing sugarcane.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India and could cause massive damage to the winter crops if it is not contained quickly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Periods of rainfall and above normal temperatures has been the pattern of the winter for most of the continent, though the south and southeast growing areas could use more precipitation. The pattern seems to be changing slightly, bringing more periods of showers to the south while cooling off many areas, though only toward normal instead of above normal. Favorable weather continues for most of the continent while it may improve somewhat for the south.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures and a lack of showers over the last month has stressed developing to reproductive wheat for most of the region. Warm and dry conditions continue this week, though there is a chance at some shower activity next week. This may come too little and too late.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures continue for the next 10 days. Soil moisture is still below normal in many areas of Ukraine but there does appear to be several chances for meaningful precipitation in these areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Periods of showers will continue across eastern Australia over the next 10 days, which will continue to improve irrigation supplies, but much of the crop yields have been set. The increase in irrigation and soil moisture will be beneficial for the upcoming winter wheat planting season in the next 6 weeks or so.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Moderate to heavy rain in Missouri. Temperatures above normal.

East: Rain developing in the far southwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Moderate rain over the south Monday with snow over northern Missouri into eastern Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday, perhaps moderate. Mostly dry Thursday.

Some light snow Thursday into Friday across the south. Light snow over the north Friday night. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Rain spreading southwest to northeast through Monday. Snow developing over northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin, northern Indiana, through Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday, likely moderate to heavy. Mostly dry or some lake-effect snow Thursday. Some light snow across the Ohio River Valley Friday.

Temperatures above normal Monday-Wednesday, below normal west and above normal east Thursday, below normal Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: A band of light snow setting up from Minnesota to Indiana Saturday, mostly dry Sunday. Moderate to heavy rain over most areas Monday and Tuesday, some snow in the northwest. Rain continues over eastern areas on Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday, near normal west and below normal east Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Widespread rain, some snow in the west. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Rain pushes mostly off to the east on Monday. Light snow Tuesday, may be moderate in a band through Nebraska and Kansas, ending early Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Light to moderate rain south, light to moderate snow north Monday-Tuesday. Some lingering showers into Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Chance for isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday, in Parana on Wednesday. Moderate to heavy amounts possible. Mostly dry Thursday.

Mostly dry or a few isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated moderate to locally heavy showers Monday and Tuesday.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to slightly above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Low chance for isolated showers Monday into Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Low chance for isolated showers Monday, mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.