DTN Ag Weather Brief

By John Baranick
DTN Meterologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge between Greenland and Iceland. This is producing mild temperatures in western Canada, cold central, very cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending into the northwest U.S. A weak trough in the eastern pacific and a braod trough over the U.S. and northwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located in the northwest Caribbean and south of Bermuda.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in fair-poor agreement. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over Alaska. A trough over western Canada. A weak ridge over north-central Canada. A trough over eastern Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a weak ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough in the eastern pacific. A weak ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and some ridging in the northwest atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central U.S. under the trough aloft with the exception of the northern Plains. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...92 AT ZAPATA AND FALFURRIAS TX LOW MON ... 24 BELOW ZERO AT SEA GULL LAKE MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY ... Springfield IL 0.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European ensembles are in fair agreement with the overall pattern next week. Models have been waffling a bit over the last couple of days and that could happen as we near a strong midweek storm, causing differences in the forecast. An ensemble of all models is being used.

A weak trough will move through the center of the country early next week with a storm system that should spread mostly rain over the Eastern Plains and points eastward. A much stronger trough digs into the center of the country toward the middle of next week. This should produce a strong storm over the Plains and points eastward. Heavy snow over the Northern and Central Plains into the northern Midwest with moderate rain and thunderstorms elsewhere. Some strong to severe storms will be possible across the southern tier of the country with the storm.

Temperatures late this weekend will be above normal to the north and below normal to the south, changing to a warm east and cool west pattern by the middle of next week. Below normal temperatures are expected to envelop the majority of the country by the end of the month.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Periods of showers and thunderstorms occurred over portions of southern Brazil that were in need of moisture, but the showers were pretty isolated about the area. More persistent showers are expected Tuesday.

Showers and storms migrate a little further north for Wednesday through the end of the week. If areas get missed Tuesday, or receive too little, there is little prospect for additional rainfall over the south for the following week.

Further to the north, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the major growing areas, providing plenty of moisture for newly planted cotton and safrinha (second crop) corn, and being scattered enough to work around to continue harvest of soybeans. Areas off to the northeast continue to be left out of the rainfall and damage is expected.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday will provide good moisture for full season corn and soybeans. The few areas that were missed will suffer as there is little sign of organized precipitation chances for the next week. Temperatures will be cooler than normal though, reducing the overall stress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Some showers have developed in the High Plains, but missed most of the areas that were in need of additional moisture. This area will have better chances for moisture Wednesday into Thursday. Further to the south over Texas will be the focus for shower activity through Thursday night, which will improve soil moisture for many of the drier areas. Additional showers will develop with the two systems next week and could help to increase soil moisture. The second system midweek will be a stronger system with some heavy snow potential to the north and below normal temperatures.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Showers exit Tuesday, with welcome drier weather through the weekend. The two storms next week will likely add to the excess soil moisture problems for the region.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures below normal will rise back above normal toward the end of the week. Temperatures look to fall back below normal behind the stronger system next week that could also contain some very heavy snowfall potential for a large portion of the region.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers and thunderstorms should return to the major growing areas Tuesday and continue over the next week with good prospects for crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India and could cause massive damage to the winter crops if it is not contained quickly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Periods of rainfall and above normal temperatures continue for much of the continent, though the south and southeast growing areas could use more precipitation. Above normal temperatures mostly favors these crops but leaves them less winter hardy than usual. The pattern continues to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures and a lack of showers over the last three weeks have stressed developing to reproductive wheat for most of the region. With little prospect for showers in the next 10 days, damage to the crop is looking more likely.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures continue through the end of the month. Soil moisture is still below normal in many areas of Ukraine.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Periods of showers will continue across eastern Australia through the end of the month. Irrigation supplies have and should continue to increase due to recent and forecast rains, but it has come mostly too late for much of the summer crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Light to moderate snow over the north, rain over the south. Temperatures mostly above normal.

East: Light to moderate snow over the north, rain over the south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Mostly dry or a few light snow showers central and south on Wednesday. Dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday, mostly above normal Saturday.

East: Snow north and rain south exiting Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday, below normal Friday, mostly above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Rain developing over the south Sunday and Monday, some moderate rainfall possible. Strong system developing Tuesday and Wednesday with heavy snow north and moderate rain south. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, mostly below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers over the north, mostly dry south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Snow possible for northern and western areas Tuesday-Thursday, with rain over Texas through Thursday night. Mostly dry Friday. Rain showers developing Saturday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast on Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Rain increasing Sunday. Heavy precipitation of rain turning to snow developing over the north Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms possible over eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Mostly dry Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, mostly above normal Monday, above normal east and below normal west Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Showers continuing in Parana Wednesday through Friday, mostly dry RGDS. Isolated showers lingering in Parana on Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to slightly above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Widely isolated light to locally heavy showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday becoming more scattered and intense Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.