Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial Argentina rain, some chance for showers for southern Brazil next week, arctic cold and blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest, and a flood risk from the far Southern Plains to the Delta, southeastern Midwest and Southeast are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

COLD AND STORMY IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for an active pattern to continue to bring several systems to the Midwest during the next 10 days with snow north and west and rain south and east. Saturated soils remain a concern. Arctic cold weather is expected to move into parts of the Midwest, reaching well below normal by Friday.

COLDER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, temperatures will be below normal for most areas through Friday, but not overly so. Colder areas to the north may see more signs of livestock stress Thursday, but this is short-lived. Moderate precipitation from several storms over the next 10 days helps to boost soil moisture for eastern areas. Now that precipitation is leaving, there will be limited precipitation for the moisture-starved southwest Plains during the next week.

ARCTIC COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

For the Northern Plains, there will be a blast of very low temperatures mid to late week, but it will return closer to normal by the weekend. A blizzard is possible as winds increase over the Dakotas Wednesday that usher in the cold air. High temperatures not breaking into the single digits above zero Fahrenheit in some areas on Wednesday and Thursday may lead to short-term stress on livestock. No major winter storms are expected, though. Temperatures remain below normal but not overly so through the middle of next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN NEXT WEEK

Brazil will see limited chances for additional precipitation over southern areas until Friday. There is some hope for more persistent showers in this area next week to ease some dryness. Continued periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the growing areas, though northeastern areas (Bahia) continue to fall behind in needed rainfall. Crop damage and reduced production is expected in these areas. Otherwise, little delay is expected in the harvest of soybeans and planting progress for cotton and safrinha (second-crop) corn as showers are spotty enough to work around.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA RAIN

A few more shots at moderate precipitation are forecast for Argentina during the next 10 days, beneficial for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

WARMER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Russia and Ukraine will have warmer conditions return this week and continue for the next seven to 10 days. Otherwise, the snow that fell last week is likely to boost soil moisture in the area.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA TREND

South Africa will turn a bit drier over the next few days, but recent rains continue favorable conditions for developing to reproductive maize and sugarcane. There are no significant concerns for crops.

NORTHWEST AFRICA NEEDS MORE RAIN

Winter wheat on northwest Africa has likely benefited from an increase in rain and more seasonal temperatures during the middle of January, but it was too brief. Long-term deficits continue over the area, stressing winter wheat.

RAIN FOR EUROPE

There has been plenty of rain and a return to above-normal temperatures for much of Europe. Higher temperatures mostly favors winter wheat and rapeseed crops but leaves them less winter hardy than usual this time of year. The pattern continues to favor above-normal temperatures and no major cold snaps for at least the next two weeks.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

In Australia, heavy rain is turning more showery and locally heavy, mostly toward the coast, but continues through the week. Tropical Cyclone Uesi looks to stay offshore as it passes by on Thursday and Friday. If it stays the right distance from shore, this will give a temporary dry period to the inundated soils near the cost. If it gets too close, the system could bring additional heavy rain.

DRIER PATTERN FOR INDIA

Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops in India. The weather pattern is drier during the next 10 days, but crops look to be in good shape.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS CHINA MOISTURE

Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crop areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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