DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska and a series of weak ridges and troughs extending across Canada and Greenland. This is producing warm temperatures in western Canada, cool central, cold in the far east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the northeast Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair-poor agreement days 8-10. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough between Siberia and Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over eastern Canada and the polar vortex over Greenland. This will produce mild temperatures in western Canada, variable central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough along the west coast of the U.S. A weak ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. It appears that the trough may be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the plains and western Midwest during the 6-10 day period. Temperatures will be turning cooler under the trough aloft. However no extreme cold is expected.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...80 AT THERMAL CA AND FLORIDA CITY FL LOW THU...20 BELOW ZERO AT BIG BLACK RIVER ME AND NINEMILE BRIDGE ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…MIAMI BEACH FL 1.08 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first couple of days of the outlook period, fair agreement after that. I favor the European model today but I am using a little more of the ensemble mean from the model rather than the operational run. The main difference occurs late in the period when the operation run shows much colder weather over the northeast plains and Midwest regions while the ensemble run only suggests near to below normal temperatures over the western Midwest and continued above normal temperatures in the east at the end of the period.

The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period feature above normal heights and upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific pushing northeast into the Gulf of Alaska. The US model is stronger and somewhat further north with this ridge.

The European model shows a mean trough from east of Hudson Bay in Canada to the lower Miss river valley in the US. The polar trough centers are located well to the north on this map. This suggests somewhat colder weather but not very cold.

It also pushes the rain chance to the east, especially over the southeast and east-central US areas. The US model features a strong polar trough centered from just north of Hudson Bay to Greenland on the mean 8-10 day map. The southern portion of the trough is west of where it is shown on the European model stretching from the northeast plains to the southwestern US. This suggest much colder weather over the central Canada region but also a tendency for the coldwest weather to occur in the western US and northern plains region of the US rather than further east. This idea of a westward bias to the cold weather also shows up on the European model when you look at the ensemble runs that extend beyond the 10 day period. I would tend to favor this idea.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Favorable weather for reproductive to filling soybeans and full season corn in the major growing areas of southern Brazil. An increase in shower activity over center-west Brazil may mean delays to harvesting soybeans and planting cotton and safrinha corn but it will also improve soil moisture for planting these crops. It is not clear whether this increased rain threat will occur with high cover of heavy rains but it should at least helps ease dryness concerns in the short run.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): A brief surge of hot temperatures, lasting 2-4 days, begins in the southern growing belt today and Saturday and extends to the central agri belt Sunday through Tuesday. High temperatures may reach well into the 90s F, especially in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires but possibly more widespread than that. Increasing stress to reproductive to filling corn and soybeans and diminishing soil moisture for planting second crop soybeans in the south. After this period cooler temperatures are likely and also some rain. However, it is not certain this rain would occur with high coverage or be more than just light to locally moderate. My bias would be that more rain and better coverage is more likely in Cordoba and Santa Fe and less likely in La Pampa and Buenos Aires next week but this could change a little either way.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Improving soil moisture and no major cold weather events will favor overwintering wheat through the southern plains during the next 7-10 days. We will eventually need to keep an eye on the temperatures with the cold western US bias indicated in the above discussions. Improving conditions in the feed lots during the short and medium range forecasts with little precipitation and a variable temperature pattern.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): A drying trend over the Midwest region is expected to continue during the next 10 days, although there is some concern that southeast areas and also the Delta may see more rain during this period. The heaviest rains shift into the southeast US. Drier weather is needed to help improve conditions for planting this spring.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant storms during the next 5-7 days, possibly longer. Warmer temperatures continue for at least the next 3-4 days. A more variable temperature pattern after that with some periods of cold weather expected, possibly very cold at times.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Conditions mostly favor developing to reproductive maize and sugarcane at this time, after recent rains and a variable temperature pattern. The crop belt may be somewhat hotter, somewhat drier, during the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period looks to feature increasing shower activity and cooler temperatures again. No significant concerns for crops at this time.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will mostly favor overwintering crops. Northeast China is expected to turn much colder for a time but it appears this cold weather stays north of the winter wheat belt. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops near the Yangtze river and mostly adequate soil moisture and irrigation through the North China Plain this spring. Also of note, increasing rain south of the Yangtze river should improve conditions for planting crops during the spring months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing to early reproductive wheat and rapeseed will have benefited from significant rains that occurred during January. Light to moderate showers also occurred in Pakistan and northwest India early this week as well. This favors winter wheat in key growing areas in and around Punjab Pakistan and Punjab India.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter grain and oilseed areas of Europe are expected to see above to well above normal temperatures during the next 5-7 days before cooling somewhat. This likely means limited, if any, protective snow cover and a crop less hardy than it would be under normal weather. The crop remains vulnerable in the event of a sudden turn to cold weather. Dryness has recently been indicated as a concern again in Germany and Poland. These areas have picked up some needed rains this week with more rain or snow likely during the next 5 days.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat has likely benefited from a recent increase in rain and more seasonal temperatures. However, it appears likely that the region will be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia during January. Improved conditions for developing crops but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Following the extremes of the growing season, I am not sure whether this will matter much as it concerns the yield forecasts for these crops but it should at least stabilized crop yield forecasts.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry yesterday. A little very light precipitation during the night.

Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mainly dry yesterday. Light rain south and a little light snow or snow showers west during the night. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: A little light snow or snow showers favoring eastern areas today. Mainly dry tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today, above to well above normal during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday. Light precipitation, favoring southern and eastern areas, during Tuesday. Mainly dry again during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

East: Light precipitation southeast and a little light snow or snow showers northwest today. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

Mainly dry or with only a little light precipitation favoring southeast areas during Monday or Monday night. Light to moderate rain south and east and mixed precipitation north and west during Tuesday. Light rain or mixed rain and snow near the Ohio river during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal, warmest south and east areas.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west and above normal east during this period. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation east and southwest areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal north and west-central areas, near to below normal south and east-central locations.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal north and near to below normal south today, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Light snow west-central and north and light rain east during Monday night or during Tuesday. Light rain and possibly some mixed precipitation through southern areas Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal east and southwest and near normal northwest Monday, below normal west and near to above normal east Tuesday, below or well below normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period with some fairly cold and some warmer days. Precipitation near to below normal.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northern and eastern Parana during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry in RGDS and southwest Parana today through Sunday. A few light showers with locally heavier may occur in north and east Parana each day of this period. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Monday through Wednesday. Showers, if any, would tend to favor north and east areas Monday and Tuesday but may occur anywhere in the region during Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to above normal, warmest likely in RGDS.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred in Mato Grosso Do Sul, southern and southwestern Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours. Light showers elsewhere in west and south Mato Grosso during this time.

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near normal. Highs mainly from 88-93F yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today and Saturday. A few light showers with locally heavier during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to below normal south and near to above normal north and east during the weekend.

Scattered to widely scattered light and moderate showers with some locally heavier Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near normal during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average below to near normal today, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday. High temperatures upper 80s to low 90s Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some locally heavier during Tuesday. Dry or with only lingering light showers Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday. High temperatures low to middle 90s F Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal west and southwest areas, below normal elsewhere in the region. High temperatures ranging from 79 to 92F.

Forecast: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers during the weekend period. Temperatures above normal today, above to well above normal during the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach the low to middle 90s today and Saturday, upper 90s are also possible during Saturday. The north and east areas continue hot during Sunday while southwest areas are not as hot.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier favoring western and southwestern areas Monday, north and east locations Tuesday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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