DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska. A ridge over northwest and north-central Canada. A trough over northeast Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is producing mild/warm temperatures over western Canada, mild/cool central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough off the northwest coast of the U.S. A flat ridge in the eastern pacific. A weak ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough over the south-central U.S. A weak ridge over the north-central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough between Siberia and Alaska. A weak ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough extending from the Rockies to the Midwest and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central U.S. under the trough aloft supplied with gulf moisture from the ridge in the east. Temperatures will be variable but generally trending cooler under the trough.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...78 AT BIG PINE KEY FL

LOW TUE...25 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…PORTLAND OR 0.55 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair agreement today. The progression of upper level and surface features is similar between the models. The US model is deeper with the upper level trough as it dips southward into the Midwest during the middle of the period and remains deeper with the polar trough (Vortex) over central Canada through the end of the period. This leads to a much colder outlook using the US model over the Canadian Prairies region which in turn spills down into the northeast plains/northwest Midwest region for the 6-10 day period. The ensemble run from the US model is only a little less cold in these areas than the operational run. The European model features above normal temperatures for the 6-10 day period in the area using both the operational and ensemble run means. I favor today's European model.

The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a ridge over the eastern Pacific very near the west coast of the US but mostly staying south of the Gulf of Alaska.

We note a trough extending from Hudson Bay Canada south-southwest to the southern plains of the US and southwest flow through the eastern US with the ridge center over the Caribbean. The US model shows the polar vortex on the mean map over northern Hudson Bay with well below normal heights extending to the western Midwest. The European model splits the polar vortex between centers over eastern Hudson Bay and the North Pole. The European does have below normal heights through the plains and western Midwest but not to the extent that the US model features.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Favorable weather for filling soybeans in the major growing areas of Brazil. The early harvest is increasing in central Brazil. Some beneficial rain in northeast Brazil last week where dry weather has impacted planted acreage which will lower expected production. A return to drier weather is expected mid to late week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Generally favorable weather for pollinating and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans in the major growing areas of central Argentina at this time. A trend towards less then needed rainfall and warmer than normal temperatures during the medium and longer term forecast periods will need to be watched.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Improving soil moisture and no major cold weather events will favor overwintering wheat through the southern plains. Snow, possibly 4-8 inches, in the feedlots of southwest Kansas last night and today but not very cold. Increased stress to livestock for a time. In general a more favorable weather pattern follows this snow but we will need to keep an eye on Canada as there is some risk for colder temperatures returning to the area in the extended range..see the above discussion.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Saturated soils across the Midwest are expected to lead to fieldwork and planting delays in the spring unless a drier weather pattern develops. A southern storm track suggests that the Midwest region will continue favorably drier during the next 7 days, at least.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant storms this week. Warmer temperatures continue for at least the next 7 days. Beyond that period some risk for colder weather to redevelop.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Conditions mostly favor developing maize and sugarcane at this time, after recent rains and a variable temperature pattern.

Some risk for a drier and somewhat warmer trend during the next 10 days, especially through north and central areas.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will mostly favor overwintering crops. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops near the Yangtze river valley and mostly adequate soil moisture and irrigation through the North China Plain this spring. Also of note, increasing rain south of the Yangtze river should improve conditions for planting crops during the coming months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing to early reproductive wheat and rapeseed will have benefited from significant rains that have occurred during January. The region was drier last week but may see some light to locally moderate showers and cooler conditions this week, especially through northwest areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing crops in southwest Europe will mostly benefit from the recent increase in rain, except possibly in areas of local flooding. Development of crops will slow somewhat as it has been colder during the past week. The crops will benefit from a turn to warmer temperatures again this week.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Increasing shower activity in Morocco and western Algeria during this past week. This will help improve conditions for developing winter wheat at this time, following early dry weather.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia during January. Improved conditions for developing crops but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Following the extremes of the growing season, I am not sure whether this will matter much as it concerns the yield forecasts for these crops but it should at least stabilized crop yield forecasts.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal, due mostly to above normal early morning lows.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation today through Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little very light precipitation Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring eastern areas, Friday and Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average above normal Friday and Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during the first couple days of this period, somewhat more variable after that. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mainly dry yesterday. Snow, some freezing rain and rain developed during the night. Heaviest precipitation west and south-central Kansas, southeast Colorado, northwest Oklahoma, the northern Texas Panhandle and also northeast Texas. Heaviest snowfall through early this morning is expected to be 2-4 inches in southwest Kansas. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Snow, freezing rain and rain from west and south Kansas southward into north Texas today into tonight. Precipitation totals 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, heaviest over central and east Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

The heaviest snow, 2-5 inches additional, is likely to be in southwest to south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma today. Mainly dry tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal southwest and near to above normal elsewhere in the region today, below normal west-central and southwest areas and near normal otherwise tomorrow, below to near normal central and south and near to above normal north Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during the first couple of days of the outlook period, somewhat more variable after that. Precipitation near to below normal west and northeast areas, near to above normal southeast.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to above normal. High temperatures 80s and low 90s F.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier today. Episodes of scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers tomorrow and Thursday. The activity may favor northwest RGDS to southern Parana. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers in Parana Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring western and northern Parana during Sunday. Temperatures average mostly near to slightly above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers in eastern Mato Grosso and in Goias during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier otherwise. Temperatures above normal west-central and southwest areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier today and Wednesday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and south and near to below normal northeast today, near to above normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Scattered to widely scattered afternoon or night time showers and thundershowers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry during the daytime hours of today. Light showers with locally heavier favoring southern and western areas tonight through early Wednesday. A few light showers favoring north and east areas later Wednesday.

Mainly dry Thursday. Temperatures average near normal today, below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday. Temperatures average near normal Friday, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Isolated showers were indicated in western areas during the night. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Light showers with locally heavier today into tonight. Drier again during Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average near normal today, below normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. A few light showers with locally heavier Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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