DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...82 AT HARLINGEN, MCALLEN, FALCON LAKE AND SAN MANUEL-LINN TX LOW THU...7 BELOW ZERO AT BERLIN NH AND ISLAND POND VT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY ... LITTLE ROCK AR 1.09 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement for only the first day or two of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I favor today's European model.

A moderate upper level trough and weak surface low will move from the northern plains over the western Midwest during the first day or two of the outlook period. A secondary trough drops southward into the western Midwest just behind the first trough by the middle of the period. This leads to a southward push of the trough from the Midwest into the Delta and an intensifying surface storm near the east coast. The main impact from these events will be through the east coast states where moderate or heavy rain and some snow would occur. This could impact the far east part of the Midwest but it could just as easily stay east of there. The ensemble mean from the European model is not as intense with the eastern trough and surface storm so the anomalies on the precipitation side are not as great through the east coast.

The near to above normal rain chances also extend west across the southern Delta to the Texas area. Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal during this period, possibly well above normal through the northern plains and the upper Midwest.

The US model does not see the secondary trough that the European model sees and as a result does not feature the push south on the Midwest trough or the intensifying east coast storm. This model is much drier through the east coast states.

The key features on the mean maps covering the 8 to 10 day period will be a deep trough over Alaska and a mean trough across far north Canada and over Greenland. This is a warm pattern for Canada and the northern US as strong west to east flow off the Pacific into southwestern Canada undercuts any high latitude colder weather. We also note a continued push on the Pacific ridge across the southwestern US into the central and southern Rockies on these maps.

The European model continues to show the southeast trough while the US model has more of a northeast and broad trough. Temperatures are likely to average mostly above normal through the lower 48 with either model. The ridging pushing inland off the Pacific might suggest drier weather for the central plains region, while the southern branch trough activity means Texas and near the Gulf of Mexico would continue to be somewhat more active.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): A mostly favorable weather pattern for developing soybeans and full season corn in southern Brazil at this time. No major concerns for any early harvest activity in Parana or MGDS. Recent drier, hotter weather in Mato Grosso may have increased stress to late developing soybeans while favoring harvest activities. This hot weather pattern has ended for now as showers redeveloped in the area. This rain may slow harvest progress but it would provide more favorable soil moisture for cotton and safrinha corn planted following the soybean harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): A somewhat drier period with warm to hot temperatures in the central agri belt. However, conditions mostly favor developing crops. The rains that occurred in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires this week were moderate to locally heavy. This is likely to provide for more favorable growing conditions in these previously dry areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Improving soil moisture and no major cold weather events will favor overwintering wheat through the southern plains. No major concerns for livestock in the feed lots of the southwest. Precipitation chances in the feed lots are limited during the next week to 10 days and significant cold weather is unlikely to occur during this time frame.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Saturated soils across the Midwest are expected to lead to fieldwork and planting delays in the spring unless a drier weather pattern develops. Cold in the soft red winter wheat areas during this past weekend and early this week but not cold enough to be overly concerning. A warmer pattern for at least the next two weeks will favor soft red winter wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant storms this week. The recent cold pattern has ended for now.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A variable temperature pattern and episodes of scattered thunderstorms will provide for favorable growing conditions for both maize and sugarcane at this time.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will favor overwintering crops. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops near the Yangtze river valley and mostly adequate soil moisture and irrigation through the North China Plain this spring. Also of note, increasing rain south of the Yangtze river should improve conditions for planting crops during the coming months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing to early reproductive wheat and rapeseed will have benefited from significant rains that have occurred this month. The region looks somewhat drier this week but may see more showers early next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing crops in southwest Europe will mostly benefit from the recent increase in rain, except possibly in areas of local flooding. Development of crops will slow somewhat as it has turned colder this week.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Increasing shower activity in Morocco and western Algeria during this week. This will help improve conditions for developing winter wheat at this time, following early dry weather.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia at the end of last week.

Improved conditions for developing crops but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Following the extremes of the growing season, I am not sure whether this will matter much as it concerns the yield forecasts for these crops but it should at least stabilized crop yield forecasts. Rainfall in key growing areas for sorghum and cotton averaged 0.50-2.00 inches and locally heavier last week. Sugarcane areas saw similar to slightly less activity during this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Light precipitation favoring southern and eastern areas yesterday or last night. Light to locally snowfall favoring southern and eastern Iowa during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal, mainly due to well above normal morning lows.

East: Light to moderate precipitation yesterday or last night. Heaviest south and east areas. Snow mainly in the west-central and northwest areas, a mix of snow then rain in the northeast and rain elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast:

West: Light to locally moderate snow linger in the eastern areas today. Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal west and south and above normal northeast tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

East: Light to moderate rain east and light mixed precipitation west today. Rain may mix with snow before tapering off through eastern areas tonight. Light precipitation favoring north-central and east areas tomorrow. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal today, above normal north and east and near to above normal southwest during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for a little light precipitation during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal north and near to above normal south during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal during this period. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal southeast.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Scattered light precipitation through north-central, northeast and east-central areas yesterday. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers developing through southeast areas tomorrow or tomorrow night. Mainly dry Sunday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today and Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Light to locally moderate precipitation from southwest Kansas through Oklahoma and north Texas Monday into Tuesday. A little additional light precipitation favoring southern areas during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in this period, above to well above normal later. Precipitation near to below normal north and central areas, near to above normal south.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle through northern most areas yesterday. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today and Saturday, near to above normal south and near normal north Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers Tuesday. Light to locally moderate showers Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average mostly above normal south and mostly near normal north during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some locally heavier favoring northern and eastern areas during the past 24 hours. A few light showers and isolated heavier in the southwest during this time. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers today through Sunday will mainly occur in north and east Mato Grosso and central and north Goias. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average below normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Scattered showers and thundershowers will tend to favor north and east areas into Monday but may be more in the west and south locations again by Wednesday.

Temperatures average near normal during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal. High temperatures 88 to 91F.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers today through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal during this period. High temperatures upper 80s to middle 90s F.

Mostly dry Monday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers during Tuesday into Wednesday. The activity may favor north and east areas.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, somewhat cooler Wednesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a brief very light shower or two during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal. High temperatures yesterday 88-98F, hottest southwest Buenos Aires and La Pampa.

Forecast: Light showers favoring central and east areas today or tonight.

Mainly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Scattered light showers Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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