Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Brazil Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Ongoing calls for heavy rain delaying Brazil soybean harvest, and growing attention to international wheat crop weather issues, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST MIXED PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a new round of mixed wintry precipitation to keep Midwest soils saturated. This very-wet condition leads to concern over the prospect of fieldwork and planting delays in the spring unless a drier weather pattern develops. Soft red winter wheat areas had some colder conditions over the past five days, but the trend was not cold enough to be overly concerning.

SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM CHANCE

In the Southern Plains, an active weather pattern depicted on the Wednesday forecast guidance will need to be watched. It appears to be somewhat less likely that the upper level low will cut off west of the feedlots early next week, but it will still bear watching.

MILDER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, a milder pattern is indicated during the balance of this week. Temperatures will show notable moderation following the severe cold of the past week.

MORE RAIN FOR BRAZIL

Across Brazil, heavy rain continues to be forecast for northern and central crop areas through the next week. The heavy rain will disrupt soybean harvest, already behind in progress compared with a year ago and with the average pace. In turn, the delay in soybean harvest will hinder planting of the safrinha corn crop, which now makes up 70% of the total Brazil corn crop.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Southern Argentina crop areas had a round of showers and thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This was welcome precipitation due to recent dry conditions. Soybean acreage in southern Argentina has already reportedly been lowered due to dry conditions for double-crop soybean planting. Scattered showers are indicated in the forecast for northern and central crop areas.

VERY WARM IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are no cold-air threats to winter grains in Ukraine and Russia through the next week. However, temperatures are well above normal, with readings from 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. This warm trend has melted snow cover, leading to wheat being vulnerable to any cold wave that might move through the region.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA CONDITIONS

In South Africa, crop weather conditions remain favorable. Production estimates are higher than a year ago. Additional rain occurred during the past weekend, with more showers in store later this week.

LIMITED AUSTRALIA RAIN BENEFIT

Australia's primary wheat areas have little to no additional rain forecast after a round of rain during the past week. Wheat production is notably lower than a year ago due to historic drought.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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