Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heavy Brazil Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rain delaying Brazil soybean harvest, and the prospect of a new winter storm in the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MIDWEST SNOW AND ICE

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for milder conditions in the Midwest following a harsh cold wave with snow and ice during the past weekend. Saturated soils across the region are expected to lead to fieldwork and planting delays in the spring unless a drier weather pattern develops. Soft red winter wheat areas are not expected to sustain damage from the recent cold wave.

SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM POTENTIAL

In the Southern Plains, improving soil moisture and no major cold weather events will favor overwintering wheat. There are no major concerns for livestock in the feedlots of the southwest. However, forecast models point to an active weather pattern over the next week in the region, including the potential for a major winter storm in the major livestock areas.

QUIETER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, a quieter weather pattern is indicated during the balance of this week. Temperatures will show notable moderation following the severe cold of the past week.

HEAVY CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, heavy rain is forecast for northern and central crop areas through the next week. The heavy rain will disrupt soybean harvest, already behind in progress compared with a year ago and with the average pace. In turn, the delay in soybean harvest will hinder planting of the safrinha corn crop, which now makes up 70% of the total Brazil corn crop.

LIGHT ARGENTINA RAIN FORECAST

Argentina has mainly light rain in the forecast over the next week, with greatest coverage in the northern half of the major crop areas. Drier conditions in southern crop areas will be stressful to crops. Soybean acreage in southern Argentina has already reportedly been lowered due to dry conditions for double-crop soybean planting.

MILD IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are no cold-air threats to winter grains in Ukraine and Russia through the next week. Temperature trends are being watched due to a lack of snow cover in the region.

FAVORABLE SOUTH AFRICA TREND

In South Africa, crop weather conditions remain generally beneficial. Production estimates are higher than a year ago. Additional rain occurred during the past weekend.

LIMITED AUSTRALIA RAIN BENEFIT

Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia at the end of last week. The rain brought improved conditions for developing crops, but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Yield benefit is likely minimal.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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