Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Southern Brazil rain chances in the next five to seven days and heavy to very heavy rains leading to possible flood concerns in the United States are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

HEAVY RAIN, SNOW IN MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for heavy to very heavy rains likely to cover much of the Midwest from Missouri and Illinois to Michigan and Ohio and southward into the Delta at the next 24 to 48 hours. This is likely to mean flooding, possibly severe flooding in some locations, and impacts to winter wheat and to transport. Significant snow or ice is expected over the west-central and north-central Midwest with this system. It will be heaviest from southeast Iowa through south and east Wisconsin to west and north Michigan. This would have an impact on travel and transport as well.

PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

For the Southern Plains, there appears to be an increased risk for snow or freezing rain in the feedlots of southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle Friday, along with increasing wind. This will increase stress to livestock for a time. Snow or ice may also occur in wheat areas of central and northeast Kansas, rain or thunderstorms elsewhere in the east wheat belt. It still appears that the Arctic type cold weather expected over the Northern Plains will remain mostly north of the hard red winter wheat area but it will still be watched.

COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, no significant precipitation is expected during the next seven days, although some light snow may occur at times. The region will see episodes of low temperatures, possibly very cold at times. Increasing stress to livestock can be expected during periods of very cold weather.

POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN

In Brazil, a more favorable weather pattern continues for key soybean and corn areas of Parana and soybean areas of Mato Grosso and Goias. It appears likely that sooner or later within the five-to-10-day period Rio Grande do Sul will receive much-needed moderate or heavy rains and more seasonal temperatures. It could occur as early as this weekend or it might hold off until the early or middle part of next week.

ARGENTINA RAIN CHANCES

Episodes of scattered showers and no major hot spells will favor key growing areas in Cordoba and Santa Fe in Argentina during this period. This should also include northern Buenos Aires later this weekend or early next week. There are improving conditions for developing crops. Some question remain as to how much rain might fall in La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires during the next five to seven days. South-central and southeast Buenos Aires is likely to see beneficial rains with a strong cold front passage early next week.

NO COLD THREATS IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region of Ukraine and west Russia, there are no significant cold weather threats during the next seven to 10 days.

PRECIPITATION FOR CHINA

Moderate to heavy precipitation has occurred in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas during the weekend and early this week. This means adequate to surplus soil moisture and in some cases increasing snow cover. In either case, this is favorable for overwintering crops.

DRY EUROPEAN TREND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS

West-central and south Europe is likely to continue drier than normal during the next five days. After that, some increase in rain is likely, especially through west-central and southwest Europe. There is no significant cold weather threats in Europe. This is mostly favorable conditions for winter crops.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Increasing coverage of scattered showers and thundershowers and less hot weather will help improve conditions for maize and sugarcane in South Africa.

BENEFICIAL SHOWERS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for winter wheat in Pakistan and northwest India have received beneficial showers since the weekend. This included Punjab in Pakistan, and Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the Bihar region in India. Not much of these showers reached into the key growing area for winter rapeseed, however.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

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