Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Attention to rain chances in southern Brazil, and a wet pattern for the season in the Midwest forecast, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

WET MIDWEST WINTER PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the central and eastern Midwest to have moderate to heavy precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, during the next five to seven days. This wetter trend will keep fieldwork chances very minimal in the winter season. In addition, high soil moisture levels will lead to some concern about delayed fieldwork for the 2020 crop year.

BENEFICIAL SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, rain and snow during the weekend between the Christmas and New Year holidays brought favorable moisture to winter wheat areas. National Drought Monitor assessments show a full category of drought easing in the southwestern Plains. There is no significant cold-weather threat indicated through the next 10 days.

MILDER NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

In the Northern Plains, snow cover remains deep and widespread through eastern areas due to the recent snowstorm. Western areas have no significant snow cover. Warmer weather allows some improvement in conditions for livestock during the next five days. After that, episodes of cold weather may occur, especially through eastern areas.

POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL SHOWERS

Across Brazil, crop conditions are mostly favorable from Parana to Mato Grosso and Goias. Northeastern areas have some improvement due to recent and forecasted showers and lower temperatures. The state of Rio Grande do Sul in the south continues to trend drier, but with no major heat through the next seven days. The are hints that rainfall will pick up again in Rio Grande do Sul late in the 10-day period, but this is a little uncertain.

SCATTERED ARGENTINA SHOWERS

In Argentina's major crop areas, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops in Cordoba, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. While there might still be local dryness, most of this area has benefited from recent rains and cooler weather. La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires have also seen some improvement due to recent showers and less heat, but more rain is needed to further ease concerns. The showers Sunday into Monday may bring some additional benefit showers to the area.

STILL WARM IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, a warm trend remains in the forecast for Russia and Ukraine during the next week. The temperature trend will be closely watched due to winter wheat areas lacking snow cover.

MIXED SOUTH AFRICA TREND

In South Africa, western and southern crop areas continue with favorable soil moisture. Northern and northeastern crop areas are drier and hotter.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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