DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over western Alaska, some weak ridging over eastern Alaska and western Canada, a trough over north-central and northeast Canada, and some weak ridging over Greenland. This is producing mild/cool temperatures over southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the eastern Pacific, a trough over the southwest U.S., a trough over the central U.S., a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S., and a trough in the northwest Atlantic.

The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the Bahamas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair-poor agreement days 9-10. We are leaning towards the European model.

During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska, some weak ridging over western and central Canada, and a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This will produce mild temperatures in western Canada, variable central, cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the eastern Pacific, a weak trough off the west coast of the U.S., a ridge over the southwest U.S., and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. extending into the western Atlantic. The position of the trough should be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the Plains and northwest Midwest. We could continue to see an active precipitation pattern over the south-central and eastern U.S., including the southern and eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be variable milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest.

Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The Northern Plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Southern Plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...86 AT NAPLES, IMMOKALEE, PANTHER WEST AND MILES CITY FL LOW SUN...28 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…NASHVILLE TN 2.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the precipitation forecast during the 6-10 day period.

Rainfall averaging near or below normal through the central and southern plains and Midwest regions, below normal through the Delta and in the southeast. The US model is warmer through the northern Rockies and the central and southern plains regions than the European model while the European model is warmer than the US model over the northeast US. Temperatures in general much cooler than they have been recently but only to near to below normal in the coolest areas, so not very cold for the date. The mean maps at 8-10 days features the polar vortex between the Arctic circle and Hudson Bay. The European model shows a mean trough over the eastern US that does not appear to be connected to the polar trough. This is likely the reason for its cooler bias in the Midwest and plains. A weak ridge is shown over the southern Rockies. The US model features less trough in the eastern US with an axis more towards the northeast US and southeast Canada. The weak, flat, ridge is depicted over the central plains area. Likely the reason for its warmer bias in the central/south plains area.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The upper level ridge is located over southern Brazil this morning but it is expected to shift westward during this week. This should allow the cold front currently located in central Argentina to move through the southern Brazil crop belt. This means cooler temperatures but I am not sure this cold front passage would include more than just light to locally moderate showers. Rainfall during the next 10 days is expected to average below normal through southern Brazil as far north as MGDS and Sao Paulo while areas further north would see improving rainfall and coverage. Possibly as far northeast as west Bahia.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): RGDS crop areas have likely trended drier recently due to high heat and little rainfall. While cooler temperatures are coming I am not sure the area will see enough rainfall to off set the recent heat wave losses. In general below normal rainfall levels are expected to continue. Mainly favorable growing conditions for soybean areas of Parana, MGDS, Mato Grosso and Goias at this time. Still too dry in west Bahia but this area might see some increase in shower activity within the next 10 days.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Key growing areas in Cordoba and Santa Fe will benefit from significant shower and thundershower activity that occurred at the end of last week and during the weekend. This included the previously dry areas of southern Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires. Dryness remains of significant concern over La Pampa, west and southwest Buenos Aires.

These locations have had some shower activity with light showers and less hot weather expected this week but more rain is still needed.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,LIVESTOCK): A weekend snow storm and some areas of blizzard conditions increases the risk to livestock. Transportation and any late season fieldwork came to a standstill. Little additional field work is likely until the spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Moderate to locally heavy precipitation with above normal temperatures will help improve soil moisture in key wheat areas. Snow through central Nebraska during the weekend but the major feedlots in the west saw mostly rain. No major concerns for livestock at this time.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Moderate to heavy precipitation during the weekend period. Snow through the northeast plains and northwest areas of the Midwest. This likely means an end to any late harvest activities and fieldwork.

Transportation and transport was likely impacted but should improve during this week. No major concerns through the Soft Red Winter Wheat areas.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent and forecasted rainfall through western and southern maize and southern sugarcane areas will favor development and encourage further plantings at this time. Drier and somewhat hotter weather continues through northeast maize and northern sugarcane areas. This is more stressful for earlier planted crops in these locations.

KEY WORLD CROP AREAS FOR WINTER WHEAT and/or RAPESEED:

INDIA: Seasonally drier at this time, following prior rains. The forecast suggests improved rainfall may return to the region during this week and early next week. Favorable conditions for developing crops.

CHINA: Long range outlooks continues to call for above normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the 6 to 10 day period. This is likely a favorable weather pattern in key winter wheat and rapeseed areas.

EUROPE: West Europe is likely to continue drier than normal during the next 10 days. A favorable trend after recent above normal rains. The temperatures are currently warm but should turn somewhat cooler with time.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA: Recent rainfall and above normal temperatures will help improve soil moisture in winter grains areas. No protective snow cover at this time. This crop would be vulnerable if it were to turn much colder. The temperatures pattern appears more variable in nature during the next 7 days but nothing that looks very cold. Precipitation should average near to below normal during the 7 day period.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Snow, ice and rain averaging 0.50-1.50 inches of precipitation with some locally heavier during the weekend period. Strong winds. The heaviest precipitation favored southern and east-central areas. Heavy snow, 8-18 inches, along with blizzard conditions from central Nebraska through south and east South Dakota, east North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Temperatures averaged above normal.

East: Rain, showers and thundershowers, 1.00-2.00 inches and locally heavier, during the weekend period. Strong wind gusts. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Strong winds today with snow possible northeast areas and snow or rain showers elsewhere in the region. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near normal west and above normal east today, near to slightly above normal tomorrow, above normal Wednesday.

Light precipitation favoring south and east areas Thursday or Thursday night. Light precipitation may linger in the east during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Strong winds with snow or rain changing to snow northwest and mixed precipitation northeast today. Windy but drier elsewhere in the region today.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal tomorrow, above normal Wednesday.

Light to moderate precipitation with some heavier Thursday into Friday. Rain or showers and thundershowers south and east with some mixed precipitation northwest. Drier during Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Thursday and Friday, above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, near to below normal later in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms occurred through much of the region during the weekend period. Heavy snow and strong winds occurred in the central Nebraska area. Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday and early Sunday, below normal later Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Chance for a little light precipitation in the west and showers in southeast areas during Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Temperatures average below normal west and near normal east today, near normal tomorrow, above normal Wednesday.

Chance for a little light precipitation, favoring central and east areas, during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal west, mostly above normal east, during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, variable middle to late in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers during the weekend period. Hot temperatures. Highs in RGDS were 98 to 104F Saturday, 96 to 102F Sunday. Highs in Parana were 90 to 96F during the weekend.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers today. Scattered light showers with locally heavier tomorrow into Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry through RGDS and southern Parana Thursday through Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier through northern Parana during this period. Temperatures average near to slightly below normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers were reported in the region during the weekend period. Heaviest appears to have been in north and east Mato Grosso and MGDS. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers through southern and eastern areas today through Wednesday. Chance for scattered showers through northwest areas during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers Thursday through Saturday. The activity may favor Mato Grosso and Goias during this time.

Temperatures average near normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred during the weekend period, favoring west and south Cordoba, south Santa Fe and north Buenos Aires. Temperatures averaged above normal, well above normal northern areas Saturday. Highs 79 to 100F Saturday, 82 to 93F Sunday.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers linger in the region today. Drier tomorrow. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal north and below normal south today, near to below normal tomorrow, below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers, favoring north and east areas, during the weekend period. Only light showers through the southwest during this time. Temperatures 82 to 95F Saturday, 79 to 95F Sunday. Hottest southwest and west areas.

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier today. Drier tomorrow. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Scattered light showers during Saturday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal west and below to near normal east Friday and Saturday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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