DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and some weak ridging over Greenland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures over most of Canada except the far west. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A flat ridge along the west coast of the U.S. A brad trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge centered over the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair-poor agreement. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska and northwest Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will produce mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, variable central, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A broad ridge extending from the interior western U.S. into the interior eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. This will be a dry pattern for much of the central U.S. due to the ridging. It will be a mild pattern over western areas, more variable in the east.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal west, variable east days 6-10. Precipitation below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east during the next 5 days, below normal all areas days 6-10. The northern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next few days, variable thereafter. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...84 AT NAPLES, MARCO ISLAND AND KEY WEST FL

LOW THU...14 BELOW ZERO AT 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCOBEY MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM THURSDAY…W PALM BEACH FL 1.82 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in fair-to-poor agreement during the outlook period. The U.S. model remains much cooler than the European model as it concerns the north-central and western Midwest regions but not nearly as cold looking as the model has been the last several days. The European model features above normal temperatures for the 6-to 10-day period over the Northern Plains and western Midwest and near to above normal over the central Plains region. This is preferred. The models are both cold over the northeast U.S. but the U.S. model is also colder over the eastern Midwest and the mid-Atlantic region as well.

The U.S. model features above normal precipitation over the Delta, the southeast Midwest and the east-central to southeast U.S. region Friday. This is due to the model seeing an upper level low developing within the southern branch of the jet stream in these locations. The European model is much further south with this feature and only shows above normal rainfall through the eastern Gulf coast areas. This is a little harder call. I would be surprised if this rain comes in further north than the European model suggests but I would be surprised if it was as far west as the Delta and as far north as the southeast Midwest.

The mean map at 8 to 10 days from Friday's European model shows and ridge over the central U.S. and a polar vortex split between centers over Alaska and in the north Atlantic. No significant southern branch jet stream. This suggests a warm, dry, period for key growing areas of the plains, the Midwest and the Delta. The U.S. model mean map features a somewhat weaker ridge over the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region. This is undercut by a somewhat strong southern branch jet stream across the southern U.S. The polar vortex is still mostly northwest of the Hudson Bay but there are centers in Alaska and the north Atlantic as well. This suggests warmer weather favoring the Northern Plains and the northern Midwest but somewhat cooler conditions to the south due to the activity associated with the southern branch jet stream...if real.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN, SOYBEANS, LIVESTOCK): Episodes of cold and very cold conditions lasting another 3 to 5 days maintains higher stress on livestock, coldest in eastern areas longer than in the west. After that warmer weather. No significant precipitation next 10 days. This may allow for some late-season harvesting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Snow and rain with up to 0.25 inch melted over the central areas this weekend. A minor concern for livestock. Some improvement in soil moisture when this melts early next week. Dryness remains a concern in winter wheat areas despite this moisture.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Precipitation this weekend and early next week through southern and eastern areas, including some risk for snow in northern Missouri through central Illinois, northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and southern Michigan. Delays to late harvest activities this period. Improving conditions for fieldwork elsewhere in the region and likely through all areas later next week and next weekend.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers through the southern growing areas, RGDS to Parana, Sunday into Tuesday. This should maintain favorable conditions for planting and developing crops, although it may slow planting progress in some areas. The west-central Brazil soybean area is under a near daily chance for showers that may be somewhat heavier early next week. This is not that unusual for this time of the year. However, it does increase the risk for soybean rust issues.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): An increased chance for moderate or heavy thunderstorm activity for portions of Cordoba and much of Santa Fe during the weekend period. Improving conditions for planting and development. I am not certain this would include key growing areas of southwest Cordoba or extreme south areas of Santa Fe. The drier areas of Buenos Aires and La Pampa are likely to continue drier but not very hot during the next five days. Hot weather may redevelop this areas around the middle to late part of next week. Increased stress to crops in these areas during the next 10 days.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Maize areas have received heavy rainfall during the past seven days. This means adequate to surplus soil moisture for early planted crops but it also means planting delays. Sugarcane areas have not been as wet. This rain was beneficial to the sugarcane crop during this period. The region looks to be somewhat drier during the next seven days. This will help improve conditions for planting following the recent heavy rains.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Dryness remains of much concern in key summer crop growing areas at this time. Drought impact to sorghum, cotton and sugarcane can be expected. Sorghum and cotton are normally more drought resistant than other crops and cotton is mostly irrigated. However, the extreme nature of this weather pattern is still likely to impact these crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Light snow through eastern Minnesota, dry elsewhere in the region, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal north and above normal south Thursday.

East: Snow central Wisconsin northward into the northern Great Lakes area Thursday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Thursday.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Light snow from southern Iowa southward into Missouri during Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures averaged below normal north and above normal south Friday, below to well below normal during the weekend.

Light snow may linger in the southeast areas early Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

East: Chance for light snow or rain later Friday or during tonight in southeast to east-central areas. Dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry Saturday and early Sunday. Light to moderate snow and rain will develop through southern and some central areas later Sunday or during Sunday night. Temperatures average above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Sunday.

Light to moderate snow and rain favoring south and east areas during Monday. Snow is most likely from central Illinois northeast to southern Michigan. Mainly dry during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal southeast and below normal northwest Monday, below normal west and near normal east Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west and near to above normal east. Precipitation near to mostly below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal Thursday.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Snow or rain changing to snow with up to 0.25 inch melted during Sunday or Sunday night will mainly occur in eastern Colorado and Kansas. Temperatures average above normal Friday, near normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal north and central areas and above normal south Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal north and below normal south Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, above normal later in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: A few light showers with locally heavier during the past 24 hours. Temperatures middle to upper 80s F Thursday, just about normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers in RGDS during Saturday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly from RGDS through southern Parana. Temperatures average near normal Friday, near to slightly above normal during the weekend.

Light to moderate showers south, moderate to heavy showers north, during Monday into Tuesday. Drier Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered thundershowers Thursday or last night in MGDS, southern Goias and northwestern Mato Grosso. Only a few light showers elsewhere in Mato Grosso during this time. Temperatures near to above normal west, below normal east. Highs 90 to 97 F Mato Grosso and MGDS, low 80s F southern Goias.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Friday. Somewhat drier during the weekend, although a few areas may still experience afternoon or evening showers. Temperatures average mostly near normal Friday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south during the weekend.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers covering most of the region Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to above normal north, during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal. High temperatures mostly 76 to 83 F.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers during the weekend period will mainly occur in northern and eastern Cordoba, through much of Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in Cordoba and in northern Buenos Aires. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, warmer south and continued cool north Tuesday, above normal south and central areas Wednesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal. High temperatures 60s and 70s.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a brief light shower or two Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few very light showers Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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