DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...91 AT FALCON LAKE TX

LOW MON...22 BELOW ZERO AT LANGDON ND

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…PROVIDENCE RI 1.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the upper level wind flow pattern and surface features during the outlook period but there is still a significant difference in terms of temperatures. I favor a blend between the models today. The US model features much colder weather over the Canadian Prairies and the northeast plains to the northwest Midwest than does the European model in these locations. The European model features significantly below normal temperatures through the Ohio river valley and the lower Miss river valley while the US model shows mostly normal temperatures these locations. This is likely due to a slower moving southern branch trough and more rain for these areas on today's European model. The US model features above normal rainfall from the lower Miss and Ohio rivers eastward and north to southern New England. The European model also shows the above normal rainfall category west of the lower Miss river into the southeast plains as well. The below normal precipitation category on the US model stretches from the northeast Midwest through the southeast plains. The European model only shows below normal precipitation over the central and northeast Midwest.

The main features on the mean maps at 8-10 days will be a moderate to somewhat strong trough near or just off the west coast of Canada and the northwest US, a somewhat strong polar vortex over and just west of Hudson Bay in Canada and a general west to east flow over the US with a hint of a weak trough over the middle and lower Miss river valley... especially on the European model. The polar vortex directs the coldest weather southward over northwest and central Canada. However, the strong trough off the west coast tends to flatten out the flow across the US which might allow for moderating temperatures in most US areas during this time frame. The pattern is mostly drier, except near and east of the lower Miss river trough and probably over the Pacific Northwest and west Canada due to the strong trough near these locations.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,LIVESTOCK): Extreme cold conditions lasting a few days and a secondary surge during this coming weekend. Increased stress to livestock, especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. However, no significant added precipitation during the next 7 days. Limited harvest activity.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Dryness is of increased concern through southwest and central growing areas. There is some chance for light precipitation in a portion of this area Sunday but aside from that drier weather continues. Somewhat better moisture for the south-central and southeast areas. No significant cold weather threats for either winter wheat or livestock in feed lots of the southwest and central plains at this time.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Drier weather during the past 6-7 days should have allowed for some harvesting to occur. Unsettled weather this week especially in the southeast to east-central Midwest will disrupt the remaining harvest. Cold temperatures moving into the area do not appear to be cold enough in the east and south Midwest to harm the soft red winter wheat crop at this time.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Favorable moisture conditions for developing soybeans throughout the major growing areas although persistent rainfall in central Brazil may increase soybean rust issues. Above normal temperatures and limited rainfall in northeast Brazil (Bahia) continues to impact soybean planting and development.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): High temperatures, readings 90s and 100s F, yesterday and again today will increase stress to earlier planted crops and reduce soil moisture in some already too dry areas. This heat wave should break by Thursday but the cold front is not expected to bring any significant rainfall with it. A secondary cold front this weekend stands a better chance to cause thunderstorms but it appears that this rain will mostly miss the driest areas of La Pampa and Buenos Aires, in favor of portions of Cordoba and Santa Fe... eventually southern Brazil as well.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Improving conditions for planting and development of maize and sugarcane due to increasing rain activity and cooler temperatures during this past week, including the weekend. Some delay to planting due to the wet conditions.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Dryness remains of much concern in key summer crop growing areas at this time. Drought impact to sorghum, cotton and sugarcane can be expected. Although sorghum and cotton are normally more drought resistant than other crops and cotton is mostly irrigated.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: A little light precipitation east, drier west, during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal north and west and above normal southeast for the afternoon highs.

East: Light to moderate precipitation, mostly rain, through eastern areas during yesterday or last night. Scattered light precipitation through the west during this time. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers favoring northern and eastern areas today through Thursday. Temperatures average well below normal today, well below normal north and near to below normal south tomorrow, below normal north and above normal south Thursday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Friday. Light snow, favoring eastern areas, Friday night through early Saturday. Drier later Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures average above normal Friday, below or well below normal again during the weekend.

East: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation today through Thursday. Temperatures average below to well below normal today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Light to locally moderate precipitation southeast to east-central areas Friday and a little light precipitation western areas Friday night. Light snow or snow showers and squalls during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday. Precipitation near to above normal southeast and east-central areas, near to below normal northeast and west locations.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate rain through southwest, central and northeast Texas during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures averaged above normal early yesterday, below normal north and central areas and above normal south later in the day.

Forecast: Rain through eastern Texas today, dry elsewhere in the region today.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures average below normal south and east and near normal northwest today, below normal southeast and near to above normal elsewhere in the region tomorrow, mostly above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Saturday.

Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during Sunday, favoring central and southeastern areas. Temperatures average above normal Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, below normal north and east and near normal southwest Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to below normal west and northeast areas, near to above normal southeast.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Light to moderate showers north, fair south, during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures below normal north, above normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and near to above normal south today, above normal south and near normal north tomorrow and Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Friday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north during Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall may become locally heavy. Temperatures average near normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy during the past 24 hours. Temperatures variable, a few hot but mostly cooler yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers today through Thursday. Rainfall may be locally heavy. Temperatures average near to below normal west and south, near to above normal northeast.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, above normal north, during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal. The high temperatures yesterday were mostly between 93 and 100F, hottest southwest growing areas.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers tomorrow. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average well above normal again today, above to well above normal tomorrow, near to below normal south and above normal north Thursday. Highs likely average 95 to 102F today, 93 to 99F tomorrow.

Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday into Sunday will mainly occur in northeast Cordoba, north Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures average near to slightly below normal during this period.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry and very hot yesterday. High temperatures averaging 97 to 102F with some hotter in northern La Pampa. Santa Rosa, La Pampa reported a high of 106F yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring eastern areas, during Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average well above normal again today, above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday. The high temperatures again range from the middle 90s to the low 100s F, not as hot tomorrow.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, near normal during the weekend.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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