DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada extending into western Greenland. A some ridging over eastern Greenland and Iceland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures over southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough off the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over southern Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada extending up towards the pole. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over eastern Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge along the west coast of the U.S. extending into the interior western U.S. A trough over the interior eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. This pattern will feature limited precipitation in the central U.S. due to the location of the trough in the eastern U.S. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern Plains will see above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SAN DIEGO CA 1.00 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6-10 day period, except that the US model is much colder in the northern plains and northwest Midwest regions following the passage of an upper level trough during the period. Neither model features significant precipitation through the central and southern plains, the Delta or the Midwest regions during the period. The activity is mainly through the east coast states and in the western US to the Rockies. The ensemble means for the models shows the eastern US precipitation pattern further west than the operational runs.

This allows for some increased chances of heavier precipitation in the Delta, through the southeast and east areas of the Midwest region. This has been taken into account in my forecasts below as it concerns precipitation chances in the south and east Midwest during the 6-10 day period. The US model ensemble mean continues to show the much colder north-central US region when compared with the ensemble mean of the European model. However, the anomaly on the operational run is colder than the anomaly on the ensemble mean in the region.

The area of concern is the Dakotas region, Minnesota and northern Iowa where it might be much colder for a time during the 6-10 day period if today's US model runs are more correct, much colder if the operational run is more correct.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,LIVESTOCK): Moderate to heavy snow during the weekend period has a major impact on the harvest. Some corn will be left in the fields until spring. Any remaining soybeans may be lost. Very strong winds and blizzard conditions is likely to have impacted livestock in the Dakotas, especially in South Dakota and southern North Dakota. Improving conditions during this week as the region remains drier and not as cold.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Some beneficial rainfall for winter wheat during the past week. Although in southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado it remains too dry. No significant cold weather impacts are expected this week.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Wet conditions due to recent rain, some heavy rain, delays the remaining harvest. Some corn may be left in the fields until spring. Any soybeans remaining in the fields may be lost. Some improvement is possible during the next 7 days or so as it looks drier, especially west and north areas.

BRAZIL (Soybeans/full season corn): Favorable conditions for developing soybeans throughout the major growing areas with beneficial rains last week.

Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall continues to impact soybean planting and development in the minor northeast areas (Bahia).

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN): Mostly favorable conditions for planting and early development of corn and soybeans in the major growing areas. However, a drying trend during the next 10 days will need to be watched as some locations have not received much rainfall recently.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Drier, hotter weather since late last week will continue early this week. This favors planting of crops after prior shower activity. It will also deplete some soil moisture during the period. The forecasts suggests increasing shower activity and cooler temperatures will return to the region during the middle to late part of this week. If verified this will help to maintain favorable conditions for maize and sugarcane.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Showers have been in key growing areas for sorghum and cotton during the past week while the sugarcane areas remained drier. The rainfall may favor development of the sorghum and cotton crops but it is not enough to ease drought conditions or to improve irrigation supplies.

Rainfall during the next 10 days likely averages below normal.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Precipitation totals averaging 0.25-0.50 inch and locally heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Moderate to heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms during the weekend period. Rainfall averaging 0.50-2.00 inches with some heavier through southern areas. Precipitation totals 0.25-1.00 inch northeast and 0.25-0.50 inch northwest during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, near to above normal for the afternoon highs, Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today, near normal tomorrow, near to slightly above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday, above normal again Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation in southern areas Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal west and below normal east Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during the first couple of days of the period, somewhat colder again after that. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Heavy snow, 7-15 inches and locally heavier, west, central and northeast South Dakota, south-central and southeast North Dakota during the weekend period. Light to moderate snow in southwest and northeast North Dakota during this time. Little further north and west. The hills in western South Dakota saw much heavier snow during the period and also extremely strong wind gusts. Blizzard conditions were reported in west and some of central South Dakota for a time Saturday. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows and below normal for the afternoon highs during the weekend.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal west and north, below normal south and east, today. Temperatures above normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, especially through eastern areas where it may be cold for a time.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Moderate to locally heavy showers through southeast areas during the weekend period. Light to locally moderate showers elsewhere in the east.

Scattered light precipitation central and west. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, above normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

A little light precipitation, favoring southern areas, during Thursday.

Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal south and east and near normal northwest Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal. Precipitation near to below normal during this period.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Heavy thunderstorms in western most areas of RGDS during the weekend period, low coverage. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier otherwise during the period. Temperatures variable Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers during Tuesday. Light to locally moderate showers Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Showers may linger in Parana during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers with a few heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today through Wednesday. The heaviest activity may tend to favoring southern and eastern areas. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to above normal north, during the period.

Scattered to widely scattered showers favoring northern and eastern areas Thursday through Saturday. The activity may become heavier and a little more widespread in the area later in the period. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near normal north, during this period.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, north Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered light to locally moderate showers very early in the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier today or tonight, heaviest western areas. A few sprinkles or light showers with isolated heavier south and west areas Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry during Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, somewhat more variable Friday and Saturday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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