DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska, a weak ridge over western Canada, a trough over north-central and northeast Canada, and a ridge over Iceland extending into eastern Greenland. This is producing mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, mild/cool central, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the eastern Pacific extending into the western U.S., and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. Subtropical high pressure is located in the central Atlantic and off the California coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day period. We are leaning towards the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska, a trough over Canada, and a ridge over southern Greenland. This will produce cold temperatures over much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, a trough over the interior western U.S. extending into western portions or the central U.S., and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the south-central and eastern U.S. along the boundary zone between the cold air to the west and the warm air to the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems; cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest.

Precipitation will be near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The Northern Plains will see variable temperatures and precipitation near to below normal. The Southern Plains will see variable temperatures and precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures and precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...98 AT PALA CA

LOW SUN...11 BELOW ZERO AT ISLAND POND VT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM SUNDAY...CHARLESTON SC 0.53 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in only fair agreement during the six- to 10-day period, especially when comparing the operational runs of the models. The U.S. model is warmer between the Rockies and the central Midwest areas when compared with the European model, especially over the western Plains and Rockies mountain area. The models both feature significantly above normal rainfall chances between the southern Midwest and the Delta through the southeast U.S. The U.S. model is further west and a little north with the center of this anomaly. The European model has a secondary above normal precipitation area centered over the west-central Plains and the central Rockies region.

The ensemble runs of the models are in somewhat better agreement overall and are preferred Monday, although the European model is still somewhat colder over the Rockies and western Plains while the U.S. model is somewhat colder over the lower Mississippi and Ohio river valleys and in the eastern U.S. The precipitation anomalies are closer together but the European model is somewhat wetter from the lower Mississippi and Ohio river valleys through the southeast U.S. The models are both showing near to above normal temperatures in Canada so the temperature anomalies are more driven by the southern branch trough and the rainfall chances than by any major cold outbreaks coming down from the north. The above normal precipitation featured on the operational run of the European model over the west-central Plains region is probably a little less likely based on the lesser values on the ensemble run, but we cannot totally ignore this possibility.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

LIVESTOCK: No significant concerns during the next seven days, with mostly light precipitation amounts and somewhat higher temperatures.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Moderate precipitation, mostly rain, will slow harvesting activities over the western Midwest early this week while later in the week the south and east Midwest will see wetter weather and increasing field work delays.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Only episodes of scattered light precipitation during the next seven days will allow for continued progress for the much delayed soybean and corn harvests. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period but nothing that looks very cold.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Higher temperatures with diminishing risk to winter wheat during the next 10 days, although still cool to cold at times later in this period. Some chance for beneficial rainfall favoring southern and eastern areas during the next five days or so. Still relatively dry through west-central and northwest areas.

BRAZIL (Soybeans/full season corn): Mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures this week in Parana and the southern Mato Grosso will deplete moisture for developing soybeans. This situation bears watching. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms this week in the northern and eastern Mato Grosso and Goias will benefit developing soybeans. Mostly dry weather this week will favor soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul under adequate soil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN): Increasing shower activity during the next seven days will improve conditions for planting and developing corn and early soybean planting, especially later this week and this weekend when temperatures will also become cooler. It is hot in some areas through Wednesday.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent and expected rainfall and a variable temperature pattern will improve conditions for planting and early development of these crops. Temperatures have turned somewhat hotter during the weekend but the temperature pattern this week will be more variable in nature.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): East-central and northeast Australia continues under drought conditions. The region may see some scattered showers at times during the next 10 days but not enough to ease drought concerns. Impacts will be to sorghum, cotton and sugarcane at this time of the year. The wheat crop was impacted already but is now either mature or in the final stages of the harvest in the area. Wheat is mature or in harvest elsewhere in Australia. Extreme heat has developed in the wheat areas of Western Australia this weekend but at this time of the year, this is not likely to do much additional damage to the wheat crop.

ITALY (WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rains continue to move through north and central Italy. This area has been under extreme flood risk recently and this added rain will further complicate the situation. In addition to the risk to lives and property, there is also some impact likely to the winter grains in the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Light precipitation, mostly 0.20 inch or less, favoring eastern and northern areas during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above normal.

East: Light precipitation, 0.25 inch or less, favoring western and northeast areas mainly late in the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Light precipitation favoring northern and eastern areas Monday or during tonight. Mostly dry during Tuesday. Light to moderate rain and some snow during Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures average near normal east and above normal west Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Light precipitation may linger in the east early Thursday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation favoring southern and east-central areas Friday or Friday night. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. A little light precipitation tonight. Dry again during Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Light to moderate rain or showers, favoring western areas, Wednesday night. Temperatures average near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Light to locally moderate rain or showers favoring northern and southeast areas Thursday or Thursday night. Light to moderate rain later Friday or Friday night into Saturday, heaviest south and east areas. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat not too far either side of normal. Precipitation near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring western and southern areas, during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast: A little light precipitation, favoring central and southeast areas, Monday or during tonight. Mostly dry Tuesday. Light precipitation favoring northwest areas Tuesday night, southeast locations during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, near to below normal late in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Light showers west, light to moderate east, during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday.

Light to moderate showers or rain favoring southern and eastern areas Thursday into Friday. Dry Saturday. Temperatures average above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal. Precipitation near to below normal north and southwest, near to above normal southeast.

Brazil Soybeans

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday above normal Sunday. The high temperatures Sunday averaged 85 to 93F, warmest in southwest Parana.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Warmest in RGDS during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Thursday, above to near normal Friday and Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring north and east Mato Grosso and Goias during the weekend period, especially late in the weekend. Rainfall moderate to locally heavy. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. Highs upper 80s to middle 90s F.

Forecast: Daily chances for a few afternoon or evening thundershowers in north and east Mato Grosso and Goias Monday through Wednesday. Little elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near normal north and east, above normal southwest.

Daily chance for afternoon or evening thundershowers Thursday through Saturday. These might also favor north and east areas but at least a few showers should occur in the southwest areas as well. Temperatures average near normal north and east, above normal southwest.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans

Cordoba, Santa Fe, north Buenos Aires

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers developed over northern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe and southern Cordoba during the weekend period. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. High temperatures Sunday averaged 84 to 91F, except it was somewhat hotter in north and west Cordoba province.

Forecast: Showers or thundershowers may linger in southern Cordoba and southern Santa Fe Monday, drier elsewhere in the region Monday. Mostly dry during Tuesday and early Wednesday. Showers and thundershowers redevelop through northern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe and southern Cordoba later Wednesday or during Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, well above normal Wednesday. Highs 80s and 90s Monday, low 90s Tuesday, middle to upper 90s Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring northern and eastern areas Thursday. Drier Friday. Heavier rain or showers and thunderstorms during Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday and Friday, turning cooler during the weekend.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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