DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features upper level ridging with above normal heights extending north-northwest from the western U.S,, through west Canada, Alaska and into eastern Siberia. We see an upper level trough extending from the Arctic circle south-southeast through Hudson Bay to the eastern U.S. with well below normal heights indicated in southeast Canada and the eastern Great Lakes region. A strong push of early season Arctic air is moving southward on the back side of this trough into the Midwest region today. To the west of the western North America ridge we see a strong trough centered over the northeast Pacific south of the Aleutians. We also note the subtropical ridge over Mexico, the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, south Florida and the northwest Caribbean.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, next Wednesday through Friday. The models are in fair agreement late in the period. I favor a compromise between the models for the end of the period. The main differences late in the period would be how much warming for the northern and western plains region and what to do with a storm that is expected to form over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move to just off the Carolinas coast by next Friday. The European model is somewhat warmer over the northern and western plains late in the period when compared with the U.S. model, although the U.S. model also features moderating temperatures...just not as much as the European model does. The European model hangs onto the east coast storm for much of the end of the period with impacts from the eastern Carolinas to New England. The U.S. model is weaker and somewhat further out to sea with this storm. In both cases I would compromise between the models.

The early part of the period features a weak to moderate short wave trough moving from the northeast plains across the Great Lakes region next Wednesday and Thursday. There is no significant moisture associated with this trough. Temperatures will warm ahead of the trough and cool behind it. However, the coldest weather is likely to be during the period Sunday through Tuesday as what appears to be the last in the series of Arctic type high pressure systems moves out of the Canadian Prairies into the north plains and Midwest regions.

The mean maps at 8-10 days out now both show the strong high latitude ridge leaving the Alaska area for points west, into Siberia. The ridge is replaced by a strong trough centered either over southwest Alaska or a little west of Alaska, depending on the model. This forces the southern ridge eastward into western North America and likely causes the jet stream over the plains to weaken and lift towards the north. The trough lingers over the eastern Midwest on the US model but is further east and split in nature on the European model.

The European models surface storm off the east coast shows up on the mean 8-10 day maps as a trough over the the southeast US coast and below normal heights in the southeast US. In either case a much less severe looking period with the blocking ridge over Alaska leaving and the strong polar tough over Hudson bay weakening and lifting towards the northeast. There is not much precipitation indicated for the plains, Midwest or Delta regions during the outlook period.

Rain chances appear highest over the southeast, through the Carolinas and in the northeast US but a lot depends on the track and speed of movement of the low that moves from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and to just off the Carolinas coast next Friday.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...95 AT 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF FALCON HEIGHTS (RAWS) TX LOW THU...12 BELOW ZERO AT 19 MILES SOUTH OF RUDYARD MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TULSA OK 2.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, next Wednesday through Friday. The models are in fair agreement late in the period. I favor a compromise between the models for the end of the period. The main differences late in the period would be how much warming for the northern and western plains region and what to do with a storm that is expected to form over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move to just off the Carolinas coast by next Friday. The European model is somewhat warmer over the northern and western plains late in the period when compared with the US model, although the US model also features moderating temperatures...just not as much as the European model does. The European model hangs onto the east coast storm for much of the end of the period with impacts from the eastern Carolinas to New England. The US model is weaker and somewhat further out to sea with this storm. In both cases I would compromise between the models.

The early part of the period features a weak to moderate short wave trough moving from the northeast plains across the Great Lakes region next Wednesday and Thursday. There is no significant moisture associated with this trough.

Temperatures will warm ahead of the trough and cool behind it. However, the coldest weather is likely to be during the period Sunday through Tuesday as what appears to be the last in the series of Arctic type high pressure systems moves out of the Canadian Prairies into the north plains and Midwest regions.

The mean maps at 8-10 days out now both show the strong high latitude ridge leaving the Alaska area for points west, into Siberia. The ridge is replaced by a strong trough centered either over southwest Alaska or a little west of Alaska, depending on the model. This forces the southern ridge eastward into western North America and likely causes the jet stream over the plains to weaken and lift towards the north. The trough lingers over the eastern Midwest on the US model but is further east and split in nature on the European model.

The European models surface storm off the east coast shows up on the mean 8-10 day maps as a trough over the the southeast US coast and below normal heights in the southeast US. In either case a much less severe looking period with the blocking ridge over Alaska leaving and the strong polar tough over Hudson bay weakening and lifting towards the northeast. There is not much precipitation indicated for the plains, Midwest or Delta regions during the outlook period.

Rain chances appear highest over the southeast, through the Carolinas and in the northeast US but a lot depends on the track and speed of movement of the low that moves from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and to just off the Carolinas coast next Friday.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): A secondary surge of cold, Arctic Air, is expected over the Midwest region early next week. Dry weather or with only light precipitation should allow for late season harvesting during the next 10 days.

Moderating temperatures late in the period.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Only episodes of scattered light or very light precipitation during the next 7 days will allow for continued progress for the much delayed soybean and corn harvests. Very cold conditions during the next 5 days, followed by moderating temperatures.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Beneficial rains occurred this week favoring developing wheat in Oklahoma and north Texas with a variable temperature pattern allowing for this development at times. Colder, drier weather from southern Kansas northward. Slower development of wheat. Warmer temperatures late in the 10 day period.

BRAZIL (Soybeans/full season corn): Improving conditions due to increasing shower activity in Parana, MGDS and Mato Grosso but especially in Parana and MGDS. Adequate to surplus soil moisture in RGDS with or rain likely occurring next week. Drier, warm to hot conditions for northeast Brazil soybean areas...including western Bahia and western Minas Gerais. Goias may see showers but in general showers look to average below normal while temperatures average above normal for this time of the year.

ARGENTINA (CORN): Drier, warmer weather will favor planting and early development of corn in the region during the next 7 days. Local dryness is of some concern in western growing areas. The chance for significant rainfall for next Wednesday has diminished on the recent forecast maps. We may need to keep an eye on this region as not much rain is being forecasted through the 10 day period.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Increasing shower activity and a variable temperature pattern will improve conditions for planting and early development of these crops. However, some west and north areas could use more rain and less warm weather.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/SORGHUM/COTTON): Rainfall that occurred last week in Western Australia and during the weekend in Victoria and New South Wales may favor any late filling winter wheat but would be unfavorable for maturing wheat and wheat harvests. Showers diminished as they moved into northern NSW and southeast Queensland. As a result key growing areas for sorghum and cotton saw only a few light showers. Drought is likely impacting early development of these summer crops and severely limiting irrigation for cotton.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

East: Light to locally moderate precipitation near the Ohio river, drier elsewhere in the region, yesterday. Temperatures averaged well below normal north and central areas, somewhat more variable through the south.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Sunday. Chance for snow showers and brief snow squalls during Sunday night. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Sunday. Snow showers, possibly squalls, may develop Sunday night ... favoring north and west locations. Temperatures average well below normal today, below normal tomorrow, near to below normal Sunday.

Light precipitation, favoring southern and eastern areas, during Monday.

Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Monday, well below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average well below normal early in this period, near to below normal late in the period. Precipitation near to mostly below normal.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry during today. Chance for light precipitation, up to 0.25 inch melted, during the weekend period. This should favor the northeast areas early in the weekend and the south and west later. Especially likely in Montana and the western Dakotas. Temperatures average above normal west and near to below normal east today, above normal west and south and near to below normal northeast tomorrow, below or well below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for a little light precipitation Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below to well below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near normal west and below normal east during Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal west and below to normal east Friday through Sunday. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Light rain or showers through east and south Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below or well below normal, except it was somewhat warmer in northeast Texas.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Sunday. Chance for light precipitation north and showers southeast during Sunday night.

Temperatures average below normal east and southwest and near normal northwest today, above normal north and west-central areas and near normal otherwise tomorrow, near normal normal and above normal south Sunday.

Dry or with only light precipitation in central to northeast Texas during Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Monday and Tuesday, below normal south and east and near normal northwest during Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal south and east and near normal northwest early in this period, mostly near normal late in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: A few light showers with locally heavier from northwest RGDS to Parana during the past 24 hours. The high temperatures yesterday were mostly in the 70s to a few in the low 80s F.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas today. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers in Parana, dry or with only a few light showers in northern RGDS, during the weekend. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal during the weekend.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop during Wednesday or Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. This activity looks to be moderate to locally heavy.

Temperatures average near to above normal south and mostly near normal north during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in Mato Grosso, MGDS and southwestern Goias during the past 24 hours.

This activity may have been locally heavy but with variable coverage. Drier north and east Goias, west Minas Gerais and west Bahia during this time.

Temperatures upper 80s to low 90s in MGDS, low to middle 90s elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today through Sunday. The activity may be heaviest in MGDS during this period but showers are possible almost anywhere in this region. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near normal northwest, above normal northeast.

Scattered to widely scattered light and locally moderate showers Monday and Tuesday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers during Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal south, near normal northwest, above normal northeast. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall mainly from eastern Mato Grosso across Goias and especially in western Minas Gerais and western Bahia.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, north Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures yesterday were mostly 84 to 91F, coolest over northern Buenos Aires.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers tomorrow.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal north and west and near to below normal southeast during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered light and locally moderate showers Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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