Commodities Market Impact Weather

Chilly but Drier for Harvest

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A cool to colder trend with mixed precipitation in the United States, and mostly favorable rainfall in South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

COLDER BUT DRIER PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a pattern of below to much below normal temperatures across the Midwest during the next week. Precipitation is varied, with lighter amounts west and moderate to locally heavier east. This pattern will offer some harvest progress.

DIFFICULT NORTHERN PLAINS HARVEST

The Northern Plains has a cold pattern with periods of precipitation in store during the next week. The general trend is to keep harvest progress slow in this late season.

RAIN TO CROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas have a round of showers and thunderstorms indicated for the region during the next few days. Precipitation amounts vary, with lighter totals west and moderate to heavy east. Moisture will be favorable for winter wheat. Some light snow is also possible in western areas during the next seven days, which would offer some insulation against lower temperatures.

MIXED PRAIRIES MOISTURE

In the Canadian Prairies, southern areas will have light precipitation with limited harvest delays in this late season. Some northern areas will see heavier amounts of moisture.

CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, rain and lower temperatures this week have been favorable for soybean soil moisture. Planting has now caught up to average for progress. Additional showers are indicated during the next week.

SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, moderate to locally heavy rain remains in the forecast over the next week. This will benefit soil moisture for corn planting. Western areas will have lighter amounts.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA CONDITIONS

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine have a wide variance in soil moisture for winter grains. In Ukraine, drought is a major concern in northern and western sectors. In these sectors, rainfall in the past two months has totaled less than 50% of normal, locally under 25% of normal. In southern Russia, meanwhile, precipitation has totaled between 90 to 125% of normal. Winter wheat typically goes dormant during the latter half of November across southern portions of Ukraine and Russia, earlier in the month in the more northerly growing areas.

MOSTLY LIGHT AUSTRALIA RAIN

Mostly light rain is forecast for Australia wheat areas in the next week. Drought has already drastically reduced the nation's wheat crop prospects. Production is estimated at more than 30% below the five-year average.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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