DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central Canada. And a weak ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures in western Canada, variable central, mild in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over southwest Canada and the western U.S. A weak ridge over the central U.S. and south-central Canada. A weak trough over the eastern U.S. A strong trough over southeast Canada and a ridge in the southwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over northwest Mexico and the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement days 6-7, fair/good agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough between Siberia and Alaska. Some weak ridging to the north of Alaska, and over northwest and north-central Canada and a trough near the pole extending into Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending to the west coast of Canada and the northwest U.S. A weak ridge over the interior western U.S. and a trough over southeast Canada and the eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. The trough is expected to be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the central US during the 6-10 day period with much of the activity occurring during the next few days. There is the potential for a major snowstorm in the northern plains early in the period. Temperatures will be on the cool/cold side on the west side of the trough with the expectations for growing season ending cold in the northern Plains and the potential in the western Midwest.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next few days, below to much below normal mid period, near to below normal later in the period. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern Plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern Plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...102 AT PALM SPRINGS CA

LOW TUE...9 AT HARBISON MEADOW CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…DAYTONA BEACH FL 1.50 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement as it concerns the track of the powerful northern plains/south Canada storm system this Thursday through Saturday. The 72 hour forecast position, Friday evening, on what looks to be a blizzard is expected to be somewhere between extreme northeast North Dakota and extreme southwest Ontario Canada. There is two parts to this storm. The first is tonight and Thursday as moderate to locally heavy snow, ice and rain develops over the northern plains. The second part is Friday into Saturday when the upper level low cuts off from the flow and the storm stalls for a time and deepens. This is when blizzard conditions are more likely to occur. In either case snowfall will exceed a foot across much of North Dakota and in Manitoba, Canada. We may see 2 feet of snow depending on how slowly the system exits the area during the weekend. Behind this storm the plains and then the western Midwest turn sharply colder. The eastern Midwest will turn colder later in the period but probably not to the same degrees as areas further west.

Early in the 6-10 day period the rains will shift south into the Delta region and portions of the southeast US. There is even a slight chance that some rain may occur this coming Monday night over the Midwest before moving to the Delta. The mean trough shifts east of the Miss river during the 8-10 day period while also weakening a little. This implies below normal temperatures from the northeast plains to the Midwest but with some moderation from earlier very cold conditions. It is also likely to be drier. The deep snow cover that is expected over the northern plains region will keep that area much colder for a longer period of time, even when areas further to the south turn warmer.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Cloudiness and showers located off the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States are associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure that is beginning to produce gale-force winds. This system is forecast to move northward or northeastward and strengthen as a non-tropical low off the east coast of the United States during the next day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of the week when it drifts southward offshore of the United States. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring strong winds, coastal flooding, and rough surf to portions of the mid- Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts through late week.

A small area of low pressure is located about 270 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the low is likely producing winds to near gale force, the associated thunderstorm activity is limited. Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for additional development, this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression or storm today. By tonight, the system is forecast to merge with the low off the east coast of the United States.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Much colder weather will advance eastward into Manitoba today and Thursday. Ahead of this light precipitation, up to 0.25 inch, is expected in the east today. A secondary storm is expected to form in the northeast plains of the US before moving north into Canada. This is expected to become a powerful storm system featuring heavy snow, heavy rain and very strong winds. The Manitoba-Ontario area will be hardest hit in terms of heavy precipitation. Manitoba may be hardest hit in terms of heavy snow, likely a foot or more with a risk for blizzard conditions. A hard freeze follows this event. A growing season ending freeze across the region. Major impacts to travel, transport and harvests this period.

NORTHERN PLAINS: A high risk for a major snow and wind event Thursday-Friday-Saturday. This includes the risk for blizzard conditions and very heavy snowfall, a foot or more. This will impact travel, transport and harvest progress. It may also mean crop lodging in areas of heavy snow and strong winds. Livestock is also at risk from this system. Following the storm much colder temperatures will mean a growing season ending hard freeze. Any crops not yet mature will likely experience damage or quality problems.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Wet weather in the western Midwest is unfavorable for maturing crops leading to poor drying conditions ahead of the harvest. A significant risk for a season ending freeze in western areas at the end of the week would damage immature crops. Frost and a light freeze may also occur eastward to the Miss river. Eventually even some frost into Illinois. Some chance for snow from the northeast plains storm reaching to southeast South Dakota/southwest Minnesota. Showers in the eastern Midwest generally favors filling crops especially in Indiana and Ohio where conditions have been dry.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: A turn to much colder weather is expected during the next few days, rain in eastern areas and mixed precipitation northwest.

Germination and early development of recently planted winter wheat will slow with the colder temperatures. Some delay to planting progress in the north and east areas.

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): More rain is needed to initiate widespread soybean planting. Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring north and east areas during the past 24 hours. A few light showers southwest. Showers remain mostly in north and east areas today and Thursday but may settle back down into the central and southwest areas later this week.

Improving conditions for planting, especially north and east areas but possibly more widespread than that.

ARGENTINA (CORN): Rain is needed in some areas to ensure favorable germination and early growth of corn and to encourage more widespread planting. Driest in western growing areas. The central and east areas may see some rain at times during the next 5-7 days. Improving conditions for planting corn.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER GRAINS): A warming trend continues during the next 10 days over the region, favoring germination and establishment of winter grains. A drier trend as well during this period, especially south and east areas. More rain is still needed to support favorable pre winter development.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dryness remains of much concern for key winter rapeseed areas near the Yangtze river. However, major winter wheat areas of the North China Plain have received much needed moderate to heavy rain since late last week. This will improve conditions for planting and early growth of this crop.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/SORGHUM/COTTON): There appears to be some chance for improving rainfall from northern NSW to southern Queensland during the next week to ten days. It is too late to help the drought impacted winter wheat crop in the area but it may help to improve soil moisture for sorghum and irrigation supplies for cotton, at least somewhat. West Australia wheat areas may also see some shower activity at times. The balance of the wheat areas remain drier during this period.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: Light to locally moderate showers develop in the west and move into central areas today or during tonight. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers east and south and some rain northwest during Thursday and Thursday night. Light rain or drizzle may linger in the east, a little light precipitation northwest, during Friday. Windy Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal east and below normal west Thursday, below to well below normal Friday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry or with only a few snow showers through northern areas Saturday. Dry Sunday and most of Monday. Slight chance for rain in southern Iowa/northern Missouri Monday night. Temperatures average well below normal Sunday and Monday, below to well below normal Tuesday. Hard freeze conditions, 28F or colder, appear likely through central and northeast Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. A freeze, 28-32F, is expected elsewhere in east Nebraska/west Iowa. A frost and light freeze, 30-35F, elsewhere in the region.

East:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers develop through western and northern Illinois and Wisconsin during Thursday or Thursday night. Light to locally moderate showers favoring northwest and east areas during Friday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry and breezy during Saturday and Sunday. Dry early Monday.

Showers or light rain may develop during Monday night. Temperatures average below normal during this period. Low temperatures dip into the 30s in Wisconsin, north and central Illinois and northern Michigan during this period.

Chance for some frost with light freeze conditions also possible in northern Wisconsin.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below or well below normal west, below to near normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal through southeast areas and in the Delta.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Light to locally moderate snow developed in Montana yesterday or during the night. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal, although Montana turned colder during the daytime hours.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Light to locally moderate snow or rain changing to snow through eastern Montana, the west and into the central Dakotas today or during tonight.

Moderate to heavy snow and wind through central areas and rain or snow east during Thursday and Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy snow from central and east North Dakota to northwest Minnesota during Friday and Friday night.

Snowfall between the Thursday and Friday time period is likely to exceed 12 inches in central and northeast North Dakota and in Manitoba Canada, possibly in west and northwest South Dakota and western North Dakota as well. Snowfall 6-12 inches to the east in Minnesota. Strong winds and heavy snow is likely to cause blizzard conditions in North Dakota and Manitoba, Canada. Temperatures average well below normal west and above normal east today, below to well below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday. Hard Freeze conditions west and central areas, freeze in the east. Lows colder than 28F through central and west areas, 28-32F through the east.

Days 4-6: Windy with lingering snow central and east North Dakota and north Minnesota during Saturday. Dry or with only a few snow showers Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures average well below normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average well below for most of the period, near to below normal towards the end of the period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered showers during the night in southwest and central areas. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Showers through eastern areas today and in northern areas tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms east-central and southeast areas Thursday, possibly heavy. Light precipitation northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska during Thursday. Mostly dry and windy during Friday. Temperatures average above normal today, below normal west and northeast and above normal southeast tomorrow, well below normal Friday. Hard freeze conditions, lows 28F or colder, are likely in Colorado, west and north-central Kansas, west and central Nebraska and the Texas Panhandle by Friday morning. Frost and light freeze conditions, 30-35F, elsewhere in Kansas and frost in Oklahoma. These areas either Friday or Saturday mornings.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a little light rain through southeast areas Sunday or Monday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Saturday and Sunday, below normal north and near to above normal south Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal north-central and northeast Texas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio