Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Rain to slow Midwest harvest, and a variable rain forecast for Brazil soybean areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for western Midwest crop areas to have potentially heavy rains later this week. The upcoming rain, along with moderate-to-heavy rain during the past weekend, will keep a high risk of flooding in place. Eastern Midwest areas will have lighter rain and better conditions for crop ripening and harvest. The entire region is expected to remain frost-free for at least another 10 days.

CHILLY AND WET IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, wet conditions due to weekend rain, along with hail and high winds during the weekend, are unfavorable for mature crops and harvesting. Colder conditions are in store during this coming weekend in Montana, with a light freeze possible. There is also a chance for some frost to develop into central North Dakota crop areas, including corn and soybean areas.

MIXED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, central and eastern areas will have periods of thunderstorms with favorable moisture for winter wheat planting. Western areas will remain dry.

FREEZE FOR WESTERN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, a season-ending freeze is expected to occur through most of Alberta, west-central and north Saskatchewan by this coming weekend. Late-filling crops, especially canola, would be at risk of damage or quality reductions. Meanwhile, rain in southeastern areas will disrupt harvest.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN CHANCE

Brazil's central crop areas have a variable rain forecast in the next week. Mato Grosso has only isolated showers and very warm to hot conditions, unfavorable for widespread soybean planting. Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana have heavier showers and better conditions for soybean planting.

WESTERN EUROPE RAIN

In Europe, a round of welcome rain developed in western and central regions during the past weekend. This moisture will improve prospects for winter crops.

STILL DRY IN WESTERN UKRAINE

In the Black Sea region, western and northern Ukraine have continued dryness. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. There is still some chance that rain will form later in the 10-day period.

MIXED AUSTRALIA RAIN

Across Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland remain drier than normal during the next 10 days. Drought has significantly affected this portion of the winter wheat crop. Recent frost and light freeze conditions may have affected any flowering winter wheat in southern Western Australia since late last week. Weekend rainfall will favor developing wheat in southern South Australia, Victoria and parts of southern New South Wales.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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