DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features a moderate trough over the western U.S., a stronger ridge over the central and eastern U.S. and an upper level low in the western Atlantic. We also note a weak trough over western Canada, some minor ridging just west of Canada's west coast and a short wave trough entering the western Gulf of Alaska. This is a warm period for areas east of the Rockies, except near the east coast where it is currently cooler. It is a cool pattern in the western U.S. and wet through the northern plains, the eastern Canadian prairies and the northwestern Midwest.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, except that late in the period the U.S. model features a stronger surface high dropping south into the Canadian Prairies region. This would suggest colder temperatures for this area and also for the west and central portion of the northern plains region. The mean maps from the ensemble runs are in better agreement. This points towards below normal temperatures during the 6-10 day period through the west and central Canadian Prairies, the western portion of the northern plains and the Pacific Northwest. At this time of the year this likely means frost and freeze conditions in Alberta and west and north Saskatchewan late in the period and a chance for frost in central Montana.

The mean maps at 8-10 days from the U.S. and European models feature strong upper level ridging east of the Miss river and over the southeast plains, a deepening trough in the western U.S. and a building ridge through the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska. We also note a somewhat weaker trough either northwest or northeast of Hudson Bay in Canada. The combination of ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a deep trough in the western U.S. likely means below or well below normal temperatures west of the Rockies in the U.S. and in western Canada. Some of this cold spills over the Rockies into the northern plains and the central Canadian Prairies region. The strong ridge over the eastern US should limit the potential for this cold to move in the direction of the Midwest, at least for now. The longer the ridge remains in the Gulf of Alaska, the colder it will become in Canada. If this occurs then it becomes a easier for this cold to move south into the U.S. The combination of the ridge east and trough west in the U.S. also will continue a moisture flow northward through the plains and western and central Midwest areas. This means a wet pattern for the northeast plains, the west and central Midwest regions.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...107 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...20 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…HOUSTON TX 9.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, except that late in the period the US model features a stronger surface high dropping south into the Canadian Prairies region. This would suggest colder temperatures for this area and also for the west and central portion of the northern plains region. The mean maps from the ensemble runs are in better agreement. This points towards below normal temperatures during the 6-10 day period through the west and central Canadian Prairies, the western portion of the northern plains and the Pacific Northwest. At this time of the year this likely means frost and freeze conditions in Alberta and west and north Saskatchewan late in the period and a chance for frost in central Montana.

The mean maps at 8-10 days from the US and European models feature strong upper level ridging east of the Miss river and over the southeast plains, a deepening trough in the western US and a building ridge through the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska. We also note a somewhat weaker trough either northwest or northeast of Hudson Bay in Canada. The combination of ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a deep trough in the western US likely means below or well below normal temperatures west of the Rockies in the US and in western Canada. Some of this cold spills over the Rockies into the northern plains and the central Canadian Prairies region. The strong ridge over the eastern US should limit the potential for this cold to move in the direction of the Midwest, at least for now. The longer the ridge remains in the Gulf of Alaska, the colder it will become in Canada. If this occurs then it becomes a easier for this cold to move south into the US.

The combination of the ridge east and trough west in the US also will continue a moisture flow northward through the plains and western and central Midwest areas. This means a wet pattern for the northeast plains, the west and central Midwest regions.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Post-Tropical cyclone Humberto was located 525 miles south-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland at 11 pm AST last night with top winds still averaging 100 mph. This system turns east into the north Atlancit during the next 24-36 hours.

Hurricane Jerry, with 105 mph winds, was located near 18.4n/58.7w at 5 am AST or 290 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The system is moving towards the west-northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to skirt the northeast Caribbean islands today and tonight and then turn northward in the general direction of Bermuda early next week.

Tropical storm Lorena, with 70 mph winds, was located near 22.3n/108.5w at 3 am MDT Friday or about 100 miles east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja, Mexico. The system is moving towards the west-northwest near 9 mph. It is expected to cross the southern tip of Baja and then turn north to the west of Baja and weaken. The moisture associated with this system may eventually get drawn into an upper level trough in the western US and bring heavy rains to Arizona and New Mexico early next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Temperatures averaging above to near normal during the next 5 days will favor late development of canola. Rain in eastern areas during the next couple of days is unfavorable for early maturing crops and harvesting. Colder weather after that is to likely mean frost and freeze conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This may be a growing season ending event for almost any part of Alberta and possibly in west and north Saskatchewan as well.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): The weather is currently dry and very hot over Mato Grosso.

High temperatures 100-104F again yesterday. The dry, hot weather is expected to continue another 4-5 days. After that time frame showers are expected to develop along with more seasonal temperatures. This may encourage farmers to increase planting activities. The US and European models are somewhat different in the handling of this rain chance. The US model suggests seasonal temperatures and showers still averaging below normal during the 6-10 day period. The European model features below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. I would probably want to lean more in the direction of the US model.

There is not a lot of moisture through the Amazon basin to support the above normal rains on the European model at this time.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Above to near normal temperatures favors corn and soybean development which is running well behind normal in most areas. No damaging cold weather is expected for at least the next 10 days, although late in the period there is a chance for frost in central Montana. Rain may favor filling crops, however wet weather is unfavorable for maturing crops and harvests. Longer range outlooks are becoming more uncertain as it looks to turn colder over the Canadian Prairies which means at least some risk of colder in the northern plains beyond day ten.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Well above to near normal temperatures will favor corn and soybean development which continues to run well behind normal in most areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor filling crops, except in areas of local flooding in the western Midwest region.

Flooding may also be a concern through southwest and central areas this weekend. No significant cold in the Midwest region for at least the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: More rain would benefit winter wheat planting in some western areas. Wheat planting has begun in Colorado and Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorm activity during this weekend and early next week will maintain and improve soil moisture through southern, eastern and some central areas.

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED): Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Dryness is also of some concern in southeast Europe due to a recent stretch of below normal rainfall. West and central Europe is likely to receive needed rainfall within the next 10 days, improving prospects for winter crops.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER GRAINS): Late summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. There is some chance that rain chances will improve later in the 6-10 day period.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dryness and drought is of increasing concern for winter wheat and rapeseed areas from the south and east-central areas of the NCP into the Yangtze river valley. These areas are likely to continue drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. The area from northern Henan and western Shandong north and west has received generous rainfall recently and is in much better shape for planting wheat, weather permitting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): The east-central Australia area likely remains drier than normal for another 5 days. There is a chance for showers in the area during the 6-10 day period. This is too late to help a drought impacted crop in the area. The wheat in West Australia is likely in good shape at this time, however cold temperatures might impact flowering wheat during the next day or two. Variable conditions for wheat in southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Some wheat in these areas would be in good condition, some poor.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Rain and showers, 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, favoring eastern and southwest areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

East: Rain and showers, 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, through southwest and central Wisconsin yesterday. Rain, 0.10-0.60 inch and locally heavier, through northern Illinois. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: A few light showers with isolated heavier today. Scattered thundershowers may develop in northwest areas tonight. Episodes of rain, showers and thunderstorms, through eastern and southern Iowa and Missouri during Saturday and Sunday. Very heavy rains through northern and central Missouri as moisture associated with former TD Imelda merges with a cold front in the area. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Days 4-7: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate showers Tuesday night into Wednesday will favoring southern and eastern areas. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period. Daytime highs mostly in the 70s Monday and Tuesday, 60s and 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Night time lows mostly in the 50s, except possibly upper 40s late in this period.

East:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring Illinois, today or tonight. Moderate to heavy showers, thunderstorms and rain develops in west and north areas Saturday and spread to the east and south during Sunday.

Rainfall potential appears to be 1.00-3.00 inches and locally heavier through Illinois, 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring western and northern areas during Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal northwest, above normal south and east, during this period. Rainfall near to above normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Light to moderate rain in northeast Montana during the night. A few light showers in northern North Dakota. Drier elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures yesterday 70s and low 80s, except in central Montana where readings were in the 60s.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Episodes of showers, thunderstorms and rain today and Saturday.

Drier Sunday. Rainfall potential appears to be 0.75-2.00 inches and locally heavier over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, 0.30-1.50 inch elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average near normal in central Montana and well above normal elsewhere in the region today, near normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Daytime highs 60s and 70s. Night lows may dip into the low 40s in Montana and western North Dakota Sunday.

Days 4-7: Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, below normal west and near normal east Thursday. Daytime highs in the 70s early in this period, falling to the low 60s late in the period. Night time lows middle to upper 40s and low 50s early in this period, low 40s late in the period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal west and near normal east during this period. Rainfall near to above normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Showers and isolated thundershowers occurred in the Texas Panhandle during the past 24 hours. Isolated activity in western most Kansas and in north-central Texas during the night. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average well above normal yesterday.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers today or tonight will tend to favor the Texas Panhandle, west and south Oklahoma and north-central Texas. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers during the weekend period through east and portions of central Kansas, central and east Oklahoma. Scattered to widely scattered showers elsewhere in the east and southwest, drier northwest, during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, near normal north and west-central areas and above normal elsewhere in the region Sunday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry or with only a few showers in southern areas during Monday. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers south and east-central areas Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall may be somewhat enhanced as a deepening trough picks up moisture associated with tropical systems near Baja and carries it into the New Mexico/west Texas/Oklahoma area. Drier north and west-central locations during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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