DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features a strong moving over the Pacific Northwest area of the U.S. Ahead of this trough heights continue to build northward through the Midwest and into Canada around Manitoba and Ontario. Above normal heights are shown from eastern Saskatchewan to into Quebec, south to the middle Miss river valley and north to well north of Hudson Bay. A trough with below normal heights is centered just east of the Canadian Maritimes. A small trough, associated with hurricane Humberto is in the southwestern Atlantic around Bermuda.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although there are some differences at times. I favor a blend between the models today. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a mean trough position in the western U.S., mostly the southwest U.S. early in the period and possibly in the northwest U.S. late in the period. The southern branch features a mean ridge over the south-central U.S. extending through the lower Miss river valley and possibly into the southeast U.S. There is a mean trough near the east coast or in the western Atlantic. The U.S. model is somewhat stronger with this trough and closer to or over the east coast. This is a warm pattern for the most of the U.S. east of the Rockies, cooler to the west. The rainfall pattern is mostly associated with an older frontal boundary producing showers from the east-central plains through the southwest Midwest early in the period. Later in the period rains may return to the northern plains and Canadian Prairies regions, associated with the northwest U.S. trough.

The northern branch of the jet stream features a basic west to east flow over the northern U.S. and southern Canada with troughs suggests in east and in west Canada. The U.S. model is stronger with the eastern trough while the European is stronger with the western through. A strong eastern Canada trough suggests some chance for cooler conditions through the northeast U.S. and the eastern Great Lakes region. A stronger western Canada trough suggests wetter conditions for the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies late in the period and less cool weather in the east Canada/northeast U.S. areas. Neither model is very cool in Canada on the morning lows but the unsettled nature of the pattern suggests cool daytime highs at times for the Canadian Prairies region. Also with normals continuing to drop and nights continuing to lengthen it becomes easier for lows to dip into the 30s even under this pattern during the longer range.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...103 AT BLYTHE CA

LOW TUE...22 AT AUSTIN NV

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BATON ROUGE LA 0.99 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although there are some differences at times. I favor a blend between the models today.

The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a mean trough position in the western US, mostly the southwest US early in the period and possibly in the northwest US late in the period. The southern branch features a mean ridge over the south-central US extending through the lower Miss river valley and possibly into the southeast US. There is a mean trough near the east coast or in the western Atlantic. The US model is somewhat stronger with this trough and closer to or over the east coast. This is a warm pattern for the most of the US east of the Rockies, cooler to the west. The rainfall pattern is mostly associated with an older frontal boundary producing showers from the east-central plains through the southwest Midwest early in the period. Later in the period rains may return to the northern plains and Canadian Prairies regions, associated with the northwest US trough.

The northern branch of the jet stream features a basic west to east flow over the northern US and southern Canada with troughs suggests in east and in west Canada. The US model is stronger with the eastern trough while the European is stronger with the western through. A strong eastern Canada trough suggests some chance for cooler conditions through the northeast US and the eastern Great Lakes region. A stronger western Canada trough suggests wetter conditions for the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies late in the period and less cool weather in the east Canada/northeast US areas. Neither model is very cool in Canada on the morning lows but the unsettled nature of the pattern suggests cool daytime highs at times for the Canadian Prairies region. Also with normals continuing to drop and nights continuing to lengthen it becomes easier for lows to dip into the 30s even under this pattern during the longer range.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Tropical depression Imelda, with 30 mph winds, was located near 30.0n/95.6w at 4 am CDT Wednesday or inland about 40 miles north-northwest of Houston. This was a storm as it made landfall. It is expected to weaken further as it moves northward through east Texas today. Heavy rains are the main concern leading to severe flooding in east Texas and possible western most Louisiana.

Hurricane Humberto, with 115 mph winds, was located near 31.7n/69.6w at 5 am AST Wednesday or about 285 miles west of Bermuda. This system is moving towards the east-northeast at 16 mph. Humberto will pass northwest and north of Bermuda today and tonight. It should turn a little more to the north and then back to the east-northeast again Thursday through Saturday...passing southeast of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland before moving into the central Atlantic.

Tropical storm Jerry, with 45 mph winds, was located near 14.1n/47.7w at 5 AM AST Wednesday or about 960 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic. It is moving towards the west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to be a hurricane as it passes just northeast of the Caribbean islands Friday and Saturday.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Above to much above normal temperatures will favor corn and soybean development which continues to run well behind normal in most areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor filling crops. There are no signs of significant cold for at least the next 10 days.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Above to much above normal temperatures favors corn and soybean development which is running well behind normal in most areas. There is no sign of damaging cold for at least the next 10 days, although it may trend closer to normal after the next few days. Rain favors filling crops. Episodes of wet weather will continue to slow the harvest of spring wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: More rain would benefit winter wheat planting in some western areas. Wheat planting has begun in Colorado and Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorm activity later in the 5 day period and early in the 6-10 day period will maintain more favorable conditions for wheat in eastern locations and possibly in some southern locations as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Temperatures averaging above to near normal during the next 7 to 10 days will favor late development of canola.

Somewhat colder weather may develop beyond 10 days but this is uncertain. Wet weather, especially eastern areas, during the next 5 days will be unfavorable for early maturing grains and will slow harvest progress somewhat.

WEST EUROPE: Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Dryness is also of some concern in southeast Europe due to a recent stretch of below normal rainfall.

The west Europe area may see somewhat more shower activity during the next week to 10 days but I am not sure there will be enough to offset the current dryness concerns. The east Europe region will be drier in the short range, wetter again in the long range... especially northeast Europe.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER/WINTER GRAINS): Late summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. The region is likely to see below normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Temperatures much cooler this week may be warmer again next week.

Conditions for planting winter grains appears better in south and east Ukraine and South Russia. This area also turns much cooler or colder during the coming days.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for late reproductive to filling crops at this time. Drier, warmer weather will be needed to improve conditions for maturing crops during the coming weeks. The region should be drier during the next 10 days with a variable temperature pattern.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness and drought is of increasing concern for winter wheat and rapeseed areas from the south and east-central areas of the NCP into the Yangtze river valley. These areas are likely to continue drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. The area from northern Henan and western Shandong north and west has received generous rainfall during this past week and is in much better shape for planting wheat, weather permitting.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): The Monsoon appears to be weakening over northwest areas of India at this time, as is normal for this date. August and early September rainfall has likely improved prospects for many summer crops in India and also improved irrigation and soil moisture for planting winter wheat and rapeseed later this year. Rain is still possible into north-central and west-central India at this time.

AUSTRALIA: The east-central Australia area likely remains drier than normal for another 5 days. There is a chance that rainfall may improve in the area during the 6-10 day period. If verified it would be too late to improve a drought impacted winter wheat crop but could improve conditions for planting and early development of Sorghum and Cotton. The wheat in West Australia is likely in good shape at this time. This region may be trending drier with time. Variable conditions for wheat in southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Some wheat in these areas would be in good condition, some poor.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after September 15, if conditions allow. The weather is currently dry and extremely hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures 105F or higher have been reported. There does not appear to be a break in this pattern within the next 7 days, possibly longer. It is unlikely that farmer would plant under there conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry yesterday. Light to moderate showers developed through northwest areas during the night. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday. High temperatures averaging 87 to 92F yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. High temperatures mostly 75 to 85F north and central areas, 86 to 92F south.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: Dry or with only a few light showers today. Thunderstorms tonight and early Thursday will favor northeast, central and southwest locations. Light showers with locally heavier during Thursday. Thunderstorms may redevelop through northwest areas late Friday or during Friday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period. High temperatures mostly in the low 80s north, upper to middle 80s central and south.

Days 4-6: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring east and south Iowa and Missouri during Saturday and Sunday. Mainly dry during Monday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period but cooler than it is currently. Highs by Monday will be mostly the low to upper 70s.

East:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry during this period, except in west and north Wisconsin showers and thundershowers are expected tonight. Also a few light showers might develop in north and west Illinois as well. Temperatures average above to well above normal. High temperatures mostly low 80s north, upper 80s to very low 90s south.

Days 4-6: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring north and west-central areas during Saturday, eastern and southern areas Sunday. Showers may linger in the south and east early Monday, dry later Monday. Rainfall may become heavy during this period through much of Illinois, west and north Indiana and southern Michigan. Temperatures average above normal during this period but with a cooling trend. High temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s Saturday, middle 70s to middle 80s Sunday, low 70s to low 80s Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above west, above to near normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to above normal west and northeast, near to below normal southeast.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier through eastern Montana, western North Dakota, eastern Southeast Dakota, west-central and northeast Minnesota yesterday or overnight. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. High temperatures yesterday were 60s and 70s in Montana, 80s and very low 90s elsewhere in the region.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: A few light showers with isolated heavier favoring north-central and southeast areas today or during tonight. Mainly dry during the daytime hours of Thursday. A few more scattered thundershowers at night. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms during Friday, favoring central and eastern areas. Temperatures average above to near normal in the west, above to well above normal east, during this period. High temperatures mostly in the 70s today, 60s west and 70s and low 80s by Friday.

Days 4-6: Light showers may linger in north-central and east areas Saturday.

Mainly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday. High temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures dip into the low to upper 40s.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal, although there is a slight risk for somewhat heavier rainfall very late in this period.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. High temperatures mostly low to middle 90s, except northeast Colorado had highs in the upper 80s.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Days 4-6: Scattered showers and thundershowers are possible through central Kansas and likely through eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma either Saturday or during Sunday. Scattered thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas during Monday. The west-central, northwest and north-central areas may see only a few light showers during this period. Temperatures average above normal during this period but not as hot as it is currently.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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