DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features a strong trough sliding southward along the west coast of Canada towards the Pacific Northwest area of the U.S. Ahead of this trough heights continue to build northward through the Midwest and into Canada around Manitoba and Ontario. Above normal heights are shown from western Saskatchewan to eastern Ontario, south to the middle Miss river valley and north to well north of Hudson Bay. A trough with below normal heights is over the Canadian Maritimes. A small trough, associated with hurricane Humberto is in the southwestern Atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the southern branch of the jet stream, fair agreement for the northern branch. I favor a blend between the models today. The southern branch of the jet stream features a trough in the southwestern U.S. most of the outlook period, showing signs of lifting northward into the central or northern Rockies mountain area later in the period. This feature is a little further to the east and north on the U.S. model. The European model shows a new northern branch trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest at the end of the period that serves to pick up the southern branch trough at day ten. The U.S. model keeps these features separate. The models both feature upper level ridging through the south-central U.S. area during the 8-10 day period.

Also, as was the case yesterday, the models are both suggesting that the southern branch trough may pick up a low off the eastern Pacific that could be tropical in nature. There are currently two disturbances south of Mexico that the models may be picking up on, no actual depressions yet. This has implications for Baja, the southern California area and the desert southwest but is too uncertain at this time to include in actual forecasts.

The U.S. model features a strong northern branch jet stream with a ridge over southwest Canada and a trough in the east. This implies warm or very warm temperatures relative to normal over the southwest Canada area to the northern plains late in the outlook period, cooler through the southeast Canada areas, the northeast U.S. and possibly the eastern Great Lakes region. The European model features more of a west to east flow across southern Canada with weak troughs suggested in west and southeast Canada and no significant ridging indicated. This is likely due to the new trough, mentioned above, that moves into west Canada late in the period that serves to flatten the western ridge. Neither model is very cool in southern Canada but the European model would be somewhat cooler than the U.S. model due to more west to east flow and less ridging in the west.

The highest chances for above normal rainfall are in the southeast plains, through the southwest and central Midwest due to the old frontal boundary in that area early in the outlook period. The southwestern U.S. also shows a significant risk of above normal rainfall due to the southern branch trough and potential tropical moisture moving in. The Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies and the northern plains regions are more uncertain. The U.S. model is wetter over the central Rockies and the northern plains as it brings the southwest moisture much further north than does the European model. The European model is somewhat wetter through the Pacific Northwest associated mainly with the new trough moving in off the Pacific at the end of the period.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...110 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...30 AT GATES PARK MT AND HOBACK WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…MEDFORD OR 0.50 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the southern branch of the jet stream, fair agreement for the northern branch. I favor a blend between the models today.

The southern branch of the jet stream features a trough in the southwestern US most of the outlook period, showing signs of lifting northward into the central or northern Rockies mountain area later in the period. This feature is a little further to the east and north on the US model. The European model shows a new northern branch trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest at the end of the period that serves to pick up the southern branch trough at day ten. The US model keeps these features separate. The models both feature upper level ridging through the south-central US area during the 8-10 day period.

Also, as was the case yesterday, the models are both suggesting that the southern branch trough may pick up a low off the eastern Pacific that could be tropical in nature. There are currently two disturbances south of Mexico that the models may be picking up on, no actual depressions yet. This has implications for Baja, the southern California area and the desert southwest but is too uncertain at this time to include in actual forecasts.

The US model features a strong northern branch jet stream with a ridge over southwest Canada and a trough in the east. This implies warm or very warm temperatures relative to normal over the southwest Canada area to the northern plains late in the outlook period, cooler through the southeast Canada areas, the northeast US and possibly the eastern Great Lakes region. The European model features more of a west to east flow across southern Canada with weak troughs suggested in west and southeast Canada and no significant ridging indicated. This is likely due to the new trough, mentioned above, that moves into west Canada late in the period that serves to flatten the western ridge.

Neither model is very cool in southern Canada but the European model would be somewhat cooler than the US model due to more west to east flow and less ridging in the west.

The highest chances for above normal rainfall are in the southeast plains, through the southwest and central Midwest due to the old frontal boundary in that area early in the outlook period. The southwestern US also shows a significant risk of above normal rainfall due to the southern branch trough and potential tropical moisture moving in. The Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies and the northern plains regions are more uncertain. The US model is wetter over the central Rockies and the northern plains as it brings the southwest moisture much further north than does the European model. The European model is somewhat wetter through the Pacific Northwest associated mainly with the new trough moving in off the Pacific at the end of the period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Humberto, with 90 mph winds, was located about 570 miles west of Bermuda early this morning moving east-northeast at 8 mph. This system is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. The system may become a major hurricane Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It appears the the hurricane will pass north of Bermuda and well southeast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland into the north Atlantic after that.

A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring rain to southeast and east Texas during the next few days but the chance for the development of a significant tropical storm remains low.

A disturbance around 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles shows a high chance of become a tropical depression within the next 2-3 days. The track on any development is towards the area just northeast of the Caribbean islands.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Above to much above normal temperatures will favor corn and soybean development which continues to run well behind normal in most areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor filling crops. There are no signs of significant cold for at least the next 10 days.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Above to much above normal temperatures favors corn and soybean development which is running well behind normal in most areas. There is no sign of damaging cold for at least the next 10 days. Rain favors filling crops. Episodes of wet weather will continue to slow the harvest of spring wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: More rain would benefit winter wheat planting in some western areas. Wheat planting has begun in Colorado and Nebraska. Rainfall later in the 5 day period and early in the 6-10 day period will maintain more favorable conditions for wheat in eastern locations.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Cool, wet weather last week was unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvests, especially through south-central and east areas. Warmer during weekend and much of this week, for a time very warm. Drier during the weekend and early this week but it may become wet again late in the week over southeast and south-central areas. No significant freeze events are expected during the next 10 days, however low temperatures in northwest areas may dip into the 30s during the next few days before warming again later in the week.

WEST EUROPE: Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Dryness is also of some concern in southeast Europe due to a recent stretch of below normal rainfall.

The forecast shows below normal rainfall chances through west and central Europe during the next 5 days. There appears to be some chance for better rainfall in the region during the 6-10 day period. The southeast may be drier during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER/WINTER GRAINS): Late summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. The region is likely to see below normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Temperatures much cooler this week may be warmer again next week.

Conditions for planting winter grains appears better in south and east Ukraine and South Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for late reproductive to filling crops at this time. Drier, warmer weather will be needed to improve conditions for maturing crops during the coming weeks. The region should be drier during the next 10 days with a variable temperature pattern.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness and drought is of increasing concern for winter wheat and rapeseed areas from the south and east-central areas of the NCP into the Yangtze river valley. These areas are likely to continue drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. The area from northern Henan and western Shandong north and west has received generous rainfall during this past week and is in much better shape for planting wheat, weather permitting.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): The Monsoon appears to be weakening over northwest areas of India at this time, as is normal for this date. August and early September rainfall has likely improved prospects for many summer crops in India and also improved irrigation and soil moisture for planting winter wheat and rapeseed later this year. Rain is still possible into north-central and west-central India at this time.

AUSTRALIA: The east-central Australia area likely remains drier than normal for another 5 days. There is a chance that rainfall may improve in the area during the 6-10 day period. If verified it would still be too late to improve a drought impacted winter wheat crop but could improve conditions for planting and early development of Sorghum and Cotton. The wheat in West Australia is likely in good shape at this time. This region may be trending drier with time.

Variable conditions for wheat in southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Some wheat in these areas would be in good condition, some poor.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after September 15, if conditions allow. The weather is currently dry and extremely hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures 105F or higher have been reported. There does not appear to be a break in this pattern within the next 7 days, possibly longer. It is unlikely that farmer would plant under there conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Dry or with only light showers in northwest areas during the night.

Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday. High temperatures 80s to low 90s F yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal. Highs 79-83F north, 80s to near 90 central, 91 to 98F south.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: Light to moderate showers favoring north and northwest areas today or during tonight. Scattered thundershowers favoring western and northern Iowa during Wednesday or Wednesday night. A few light showers during Thursday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period. High temperatures middle to upper 80s today, low to upper 80s tomorrow and Thursday.

Days 4-6: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring western and northern areas during Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday.

Showers may linger in the east and south areas Sunday. Rainfall moderate to locally heavy during this period. Temperatures average above to well above normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period.

East:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry during this period. Temperatures average above normal west and near to above normal east during this period.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring northwest and west-central areas Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers west, continued dry east, during Saturday. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during Sunday. The heaviest activity may favor southwest and central areas during this period. Temperatures average above normal, except possibly near to above normal southeast areas.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal southwest and central areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only very light showers in the western most areas and a few light showers in southeast locations. Temperatures averaged well above normal. High temperatures upper 80s to low 90s F.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Light to moderate showers mainly in Minnesota, western North Dakota and northeast Montana today or tonight. Dry or with only a few light showers during Wednesday. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring the North Dakota area Thursday. Temperatures average well above normal again today, near to above normal west and above to well above normal central and east tomorrow and Thursday.

Days 4-6: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers favoring north-central and east areas Friday into Saturday. Drier Sunday. Temperatures average near normal west and well above normal east Friday, near to below normal west and above normal east Saturday, mostly near normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures mostly 88 to 96F.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few isolated thundershowers in the northeast and a few light showers in the southwest during Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Days 4-6: Dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers developing in the north and southeast areas during Friday or Friday night. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and south-central areas Saturday or Sunday.

Temperatures average above normal Friday and Saturday, near normal northwest and above normal south and east Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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