DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features a moderate to somewhat strong trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. and the Vancouver area of Canada today. Ahead of this trough we see upper level ridging building north over the eastern plains and the Western Midwest as far north as Minnesota and the southeast Canadian Prairies. The jet stream dips southward again over the northeast U.S. and eastern Canada. This is a very warm period for the plains, the Canadian Prairies and the Midwest regions and it is cooler in the Pacific Northwest and also in the northeast U.S. Rainfall mainly associated with the PNW trough at this time. Hurricane Humberto is in the southwest Atlantic well to the east of northern Florida and tracking east-northeast away from the U.S., mostly south of the northeast US trough but it may get caught up in the flow associated with this trough eventually.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period. The European model appears to be doing a better job on the handling of Hurricane Humberto in the Atlantic. The models are off a little on timing of systems moving through the north-central U.S. and Midwest regions but similar in nature. I favor the European model on Humberto and a blend between the models otherwise.

A short wave trough moving through the north-central U.S. region very early in the period and a weaker trough a little further north late in the period will be the focus for rainfall over the northern plains and eastern Canadian Prairies region during the outlook period. Somewhat cooler behind the first trough but mostly near or above normal otherwise in these areas during this period. The first trough will send a cold front into the Midwest early in the period. This front may lead to scattered thunderstorms over southwest and central areas and is the reason for the near to above normal rainfall in those areas during the 6-10 day period. No significant cold weather for the Midwest region due to this front and not much as all due to the second front that might reach the area at the end of the period. The southern plains region may see thundershowers associated with the first trough and surface cold front over east-central and southeast areas. Also of interest for this region is what looks like a weak southern branch trough developing in the southwestern U.S. region. This will need to be watched as it may mean somewhat better rainfall for the southern plains winter wheat belt, especially if it were to also pick up moisture associated with tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. For now I mention this chance but have not as yet added it into the forecast for the 6-10 day period over the southern plains region.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...110 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...22 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…PORTLAND OR 0.76 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period. The European model appears to be doing a better job on the handling of Hurricane Humberto in the Atlantic. The models are off a little on timing of systems moving through the north-central US and Midwest regions but similar in nature. I favor the European model on Humberto and a blend between the models otherwise.

A short wave trough moving through the north-central US region very early in the period and a weaker trough a little further north late in the period will be the focus for rainfall over the northern plains and eastern Canadian Prairies region during the outlook period. Somewhat cooler behind the first trough but mostly near or above normal otherwise in these areas during this period. The first trough will send a cold front into the Midwest early in the period. This front may lead to scattered thunderstorms over southwest and central areas and is the reason for the near to above normal rainfall in those areas during the 6-10 day period. No significant cold weather for the Midwest region due to this front and not much as all due to the second front that might reach the area at the end of the period. The southern plains region may see thundershowers associated with the first trough and surface cold front over east-central and southeast areas. Also of interest for this region is what looks like a weak southern branch trough developing in the southwestern US region. This will need to be watched as it may mean somewhat better rainfall for the southern plains winter wheat belt, especially if it were to also pick up moisture associated with tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. For now I mention this chance but have not as yet added it into the forecast for the 6-10 day period over the southern plains region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Humberto, with 85 mph winds, is located near 29.7n/77.3w at 5 am EDT Monday or about 760 miles west of Bermuda in the southwest Atlantic.

The system has been moving towards the northeast at 5 mph during the past 6 hours. An east-northeastward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is forecast to approach Bermuda late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Showers and thundershowers have increased during the night in the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is expected to form within the next 2-3 days. This system should track west-northwest to northwest to a position just northeast of the Caribbean during the next 5 days.

A weak disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico is also being watched. This system could become a tropical depression but is not expected to be much more than that before bring rain to the southeast Texas area during the next few days.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Above to much above normal temperatures will favor corn and soybean development which continues to run well behind normal in most areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor filling crops. There are no signs of damaging cold for at least the next 10 days.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Above to much above normal temperatures favors corn and soybean development which is running well behind normal in most areas. There is no sign of damaging cold for at least the next 10 days. Rain favors filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: More rain would benefit winter wheat planting in some western areas.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Cool, wet weather last week was unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvests, especially through south-central and east areas. Warmer during weekend and much of this week, for a time very warm. Drier during the weekend and early this week but it may become wet again late in the week over southeast and south-central areas. No significant freeze events are expected during the next 10 days, however temperatures may return to readings closer to normal late in the ten day period which means some could see lows dip into the 30s F.

WEST EUROPE: Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. The highest risk to crops appears to be in France, Belgium and parts of western Germany. Dryness is also of some concern in southeast Europe due to a recent stretch of below normal rainfall. The forecast shows below normal rainfall chances through west and central Europe during the next 5 days. There appears to be some chance for better rainfall in the region during the 6-10 day period. The southeast may be drier during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER/WINTER GRAINS): Late summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. The region is likely to see below normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Temperatures much cooler this week may be warmer again next week.

Conditions for planting winter grains appears better in south and east Ukraine and South Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for late reproductive to filling crops at this time. Drier, warmer weather will be needed to improve conditions for maturing crops during the coming weeks. The region should be drier during the next 10 days with a variable temperature pattern.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness and drought is of increasing concern for winter wheat and rapeseed areas from the south and east-central areas of the NCP into the Yangtze river valley. These areas are likely to continue drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. The area from northern Henan and western Shandong north and west has received generous rainfall during this past week and is in much better shape for planting wheat, weather permitting.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): The Monsoon appears to be weakening over northwest and north-central areas of India at this time, as is normal for this date. August and early September rainfall has likely improved prospects for many summer crops in India and also improved irrigation and soil moisture for planting winter wheat and rapeseed later this year.

AUSTRALIA: The east-central Australia area likely remains drier than normal for another 5 days. There is a chance that rainfall may improve in the area during the 6-10 day period. If verified it would still be too late to improve a drought impacted winter wheat crop but could improve conditions for planting and early development of Sorghum and Cotton, assuming this is a trend and not just a brief period of better rain chances. The wheat in West Australia is likely in good shape at this time. This region may be trending drier with time.

Variable conditions for wheat in southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Some wheat in these areas would be in good condition, some poor.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after September 15, if conditions allow. The weather is currently dry and extremely hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures 105F or higher have been reported. There does not appear to be a break in this pattern within the next 7 days, possibly longer. It is unlikely that farmer would plant under there conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered to widely scattered moderate and locally heavy showers in southeast and central Iowa during the weekend period. A few thundershowers in the west as well. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday, well above normal Sunday. Highs Sunday averaging low 80s to low 90s F.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers through northern Illinois during the weekend period. Light to locally moderate showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the north areas during this time. Mainly dry south. Temperatures averaged above normal, well above normal southern areas.

Highs Sunday 70s north to low 90s south.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers favoring northwest to west-central areas late Tuesday or during Tuesday night. Light to locally moderate showers favoring north Iowa and south Minnesota late Wednesday or during Wednesday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Days 4-6: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Thursday into Friday. Drier Saturday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

East:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry during today through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period, warmest western locations.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in northwest areas Thursday and Friday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers west, continued drier east, during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal west and northeast areas, somewhat cooler southeast locations.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period but mostly in a near to above normal range. Rainfall near to above normal southwest and central areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Highs Sunday averaging low 80s to low 90s, warmest western Dakotas and Montana.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier tomorrow. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Tuesday, near to above normal west and above to well above normal east Wednesday.

Days 4-6: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Showers or rain may linger in the east, drier west, during Saturday. The heaviest rainfall should occur over North Dakota, eastern South Dakota and northern Minnesota during this period. Temperatures average above to well above normal through eastern areas during this period. Somewhat cooler in the west, especially later in the period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during the first day or two of the period, warmer again after that. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier in southern areas during the weekend period, mostly very earl in the period.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. Highs Sunday averaging 90 to 97F.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry or with only isolated showers in northeast areas today through Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Days 4-6: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Thursday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers favoring east and south areas Friday.

Scattered thundershowers south, fair central and north, during Saturday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal Thursday and Friday, above normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period. Rainfall near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal southeast and possibly south-central locations.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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