Commodities Market Impact Weather

Flooding Risk in Northern Plains, Upper Midwest

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , Associate Managing Editor
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Flood risk from heavy rains in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, warmer weather favoring behind-normal crops, and no risk of a hard freeze in the extended outlook are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

NO DAMAGING COLD WEATHER IN MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for near- to above-normal temperatures in the next 10 days to favor crop development, which remains well behind normal in many areas of the Midwest. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days. Heavy rains through northwest and north-central areas are generally unfavorable for crops at this late date. Repeated heavy to very heavy rains -- especially with storms going over the same saturated areas -- are leading to flood and flash flood concerns in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

WET IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a turn to near- to above-normal temperatures after the next couple days will favor crop development, which is running well behind normal in many areas. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days, although it may cool back to normal late in the period. Heavy rainfall during this week is likely to slow seasonal fieldwork, including the spring wheat harvest.

HOT, DRY TREND IN S. PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days will deplete soil moisture for winter wheat planting. A few fields in southeast Kansas and Oklahoma may benefit from thundershowers Thursday night, but no widespread rainfall is indicated.

COOL, WET IN PRAIRIES

Cool, wet weather this week in the Canadian Prairies will be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvesting efforts, especially through south-central and eastern areas. Crop development will slow due to low temperatures during the next few days, but it should turn somewhat warmer again after that. No major freeze events are expected during the next 10 days, however temperatures may return to readings closer to normal late in the 10-day period.

TROPICAL UPDATE

A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. A tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 miles per hour across the Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday and across Florida during the weekend.

HOT, DRY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after Sept. 15, weather permitting. The weather is currently dry and quite hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures of 100 Fahrenheit or higher have been reported. Temperatures averaging above normal with rainfall below normal are likely during the next seven to 10 days.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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