DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. A ridge over western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is producing mild/cool temperatures in western Canada, cool central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western U.S extending into western portions of the central U.S. and a ridge on the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska. Weak ridges and troughs over northern Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge in the eastern pacific. A broad trough over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. This will be a mild/warm pattern for the central U.S. between the trough to the west and the ridge to the east. It will be a limited rainfall pattern with disturbances ejecting eastward from the western trough.

This pattern will feature mostly above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10. Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures early in the period, near to above normal thereafter. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see mostly above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 5 days, near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...103 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...26 AT SAWMILL PARK (RAWS) WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM TUESDAY…DES MOINES IA 2.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair-to-good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, and in fair agreement during the last part of the period. I favor a blend between the models Wednesday. The mean trough position is over the Pacific Northwest during the first part of the period. Wednesday's European model shows this trough moving across the northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by the middle of the period and over the western Midwest late in the period. The U.S. model is somewhat slower with this trough and only moves it to the Northern Plains by the end of the period. Tuesday's European model was even slower than that with this trough, so a compromise between the models is likely. In either case, a warm or very warm period is ahead of this trough and only somewhat cooler behind it, even if it does reach the western Midwest as the European model suggests. Rainfall is likely ahead of this trough, especially over the Northern Plains but possibly into the northwest Midwest again towards the end of the period. Rainfall outside of these areas is dependent on the movement of a disturbance now located just north of the Caribbean islands. The models both pick up this disturbance, moving it into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and then northward toward the southeast U.S. area. Eventually the European model brings it as far north as the eastern Midwest while in the U.S. model, it moves to the south. I did not factor this rain chance into my forecast mainly due to disagreement between the models and also due to a drier-looking mean map from the European ensemble run. However it will bear watching. In either case a dry weather pattern continues over the central and Southern Plains region during the six- to 10-day period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no organized tropical systems in the Atlantic at this time, but a few areas are being watched. The closest is moving over the Turks and Caicos just north of the central Caribbean islands. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. Further development is possible when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Near to above and well above normal temperatures during the next 10 days will favor crop development, which remains well behind normal in many areas. Heavy rains through northwest and north-central areas likely means local flooding of fields and is generally unfavorable for crops at this late date.

NORTHERN PLAINS: A turn to above and well above normal temperatures after the next one-to-three days will favor crop development, which is running well behind normal in many areas. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days. Heavy rainfall during this week is likely to slow seasonal field work, including the harvest of spring wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Above and sometimes well above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 10 days will deplete soil moisture for winter wheat planting. This situation bears watching.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Cool, wet weather this week will be somewhat unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvests, especially through south-central and east areas. Crop development will slow due to cool daytime temperatures during the next few days, but it should turn warmer again after that, possibly much warmer for a time. No significant freeze events are expected during the next 10 days, however low sun angle and increasing length of night will likely mean some upper or middle 30s F at times.

WEST EUROPE: Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. The highest risk to crops appears to be in France, Belgium and parts of western Germany. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall occurred last weekend from south and eastern Germany into east Europe but missed most of France. The outlook suggests mostly below normal rainfall during the next 10 days for the west and central Europe area.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER/WINTER GRAINS): Late summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. The region is likely to see below normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Very warm weather continues this week but it may be cooler early next week. Conditions for planting winter grains appears better in south and east Ukraine and South Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Adequate-to-surplus soil moisture for late reproductive-to-filling crops at this time. Heavy weekend rains through southeast areas due to a weakening tropical system may have caused local flooding. Drier, warmer weather will be needed to improve conditions for maturing crops during the coming weeks. This week looks to be drier and somewhat warmer. However, next week it may turn much cooler again.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness, and in some cases, drought this summer is likely to impact summer crops within the region while also depleting soil moisture and irrigation supplies for planting winter wheat. Southern and east-central areas are expected to be drier than normal during the next 10 days. However, during the past few days moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms have occurred from north and west Henan northward to Hebei and Shanxi. These areas will benefit from these rains following a very dry summer.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): A very active late Monsoon rainy season continues. Another round of heavy-to-very-heavy rain moved from east-central areas through central interior location, the southern Ganges Plain and into Gujarat this past weekend. This is likely to mean severe flooding for some locations. This may impact some crops.

AUSTRALIA: The eastern winter wheat and summer crop areas are likely to remain drier or much drier than normal during the next seven-to-10 days. Drought has impacted winter wheat in the region and will impact sorghum and cotton if this pattern does not break soon.

West Australia wheat has been in much better condition this season, so far. However it has recently turned much warmer/hotter and it looks to continue hot and drier this week. This situation will bear watching. The longer range outlook suggests much cooler weather may return to the region late in the 10-day period.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after Sept. 15, weather permitting. The weather is currently dry and quite hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures 100 F or higher have been reported. Temperatures averaging above normal with rainfall below normal are likely during the next seven-to-10 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary: West: Moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms Tuesday or overnight from south and east South Dakota and north Nebraska through northwest Iowa, west and central Minnesota. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier also in south-central and southeast Iowa Tuesday. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. Highs ranged from 79 to 91 F Tuesday.

East: Scattered light showers with locally heavier mainly occurred in Wisconsin and Michigan during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. Highs 81 to 95 F Tuesday, mostly 88 to 95 F outside of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Forecast:

West: Days 1-3: Moderate-to-heavy rain and thunderstorms from northern Nebraska and northern Iowa northward Wednesday and tonight. A few thundershowers may occur into central areas during this time. Scattered thundershowers favoring east and south areas during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday. Temperatures average above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Days 4-6: A few light-to-locally moderate showers and thundershowers during Saturday, favoring east-central areas. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Days 1-3: Scattered showers and thunderstorms north, especially in Wisconsin, Wednesday and tonight. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring western areas during Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers in the east and south during Friday. Temperatures average above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Days 4-6: Dry or with only a few light-to-moderate showers in north Illinois and Wisconsin during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday, and above to well above normal on Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Rainfall near to below normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Light rain or showers, favoring south and east Montana, southwest and central North Dakota, Tuesday or during the night. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows Tuesday, below normal north and above normal south for the afternoon highs. Highs Tuesday mostly 61 to 77 F.

Forecast: Days 1-3: Moderate-to-heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms favoring west and south areas Wednesday and tonight, central and east areas Thursday. Drier on Friday. Temperatures average below normal west and northeast Wednesday, most areas Thursday, central and east areas Friday as well. Somewhat warmer in the west Friday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers developing Monday. Temperatures average above normal west and southeast and near normal northeast Saturday, well above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average well above normal early in this period, near-to-above normal late in the period. Rainfall near-to-below normal west, near-to-above normal central and east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. High Tuesday were mostly 88 to 97 F, hottest southeast Colorado, southwest Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

Forecast: Days 1-3: Mostly dry Wednesday. A few thunderstorms tonight will mainly occur in west and central Nebraska. Light-to-moderate showers and thundershowers favoring southeast Kansas, northeast to southwest Oklahoma and west Texas during Thursday. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in north Texas Friday. Temperatures average above normal Wednesday, near normal north and west and above normal elsewhere in the region Thursday, near normal north and above normal south Friday.

Days 4-6: Dry or with only isolated light showers in eastern areas Saturday. Dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average above-to-well-above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above-to-well-above normal early in this period, near-to-above-normal late in the period. Rainfall near to below normal, with near normal most likely in northern areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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