Commodities Market Impact Weather

No Hard Freeze in Extended Outlook

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , Associate Managing Editor
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Above-normal temperatures in the 14-day outlook, rain in the Northern Plains and Prairies, and a worsening drought in Australia, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MIDWEST AVOIDS FREEZE

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for near- to above-normal temperatures to favor crop development, which remains well behind normal in many areas. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days. Heavy rains through northwest and north-central areas may mean local flooding of fields and is generally unfavorable for crops at this late date.

HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a turn to near- to above-normal temperatures during the six-to-10-day period will favor crop development, which is running well behind normal in many areas. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days. Heavy rainfall during this week is likely to slow seasonal fieldwork, including the spring wheat harvest.

SOIL MOISTURE DEPLETING IN S. PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days will deplete soil moisture for winter wheat planting. This situation bears watching. West Texas has some weather advisories Tuesday for possible flood and flash flood concerns from thunderstorms.

COOL, WET IN PRAIRIES

Cool, wet weather this week in the Canadian Prairies will be somewhat unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvests, especially through south-central and eastern areas. Crop development will slow due to low temperatures during the next few days, but it should turn somewhat warmer again after that. No major freeze events are expected during the next 10 days, however low sun angle and increasing length of night will likely mean some upper or middle 30s Fahrenheit at times.

HOT, DRY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Soybean planting can begin in central Brazil after Sept. 15, weather permitting. The weather is currently dry and quite hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures of 100 F or higher have been reported. Temperatures averaging above normal with rainfall below normal are likely during the next seven to 10 days.

VARIABLE EUROPE RAIN

Dryness remains a concern for late-filling summer crops in western and central Europe and for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. The highest risk to crops appears to be in France, Belgium and parts of western Germany. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall occurred this weekend from southern and eastern Germany into eastern Europe, but missed most of France. The outlook suggests mostly below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days for western and central Europe.

WARM, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine continue with a warm and dry forecast this coming week. Filling summer crops may have been affected by the dry weather. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains may be limited. The region is likely to see below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Very warm weather continues this week but it may be cooler early next week. Conditions for planting winter grains appears better in southern and eastern Ukraine and South Russia.

DRIER, WARMER FOR NORTHEAST CHINA

There's adequate-to-surplus soil moisture for late reproductive to filling crops at this time in northeast China. Heavy weekend rains through southeastern areas due to a weakening tropical system may have caused local flooding. Drier, warmer weather will be needed to improve conditions for maturing crops during the coming weeks. This week looks to be drier and somewhat warmer. However, next week may turn much cooler again.

DRIER THAN NORMAL IN CENTRAL CHINA

Dryness, and in some cases drought, this summer is likely to affect summer crops within the region while also depleting soil moisture and irrigation supplies for planting winter wheat. Southern and east-central areas are expected to be drier than normal during the next 10 days.

HEAVY INDIA MONSOON RAIN

A very active late Monsoon rainy season continues in India. Another round of heavy-to-very-heavy rain moved from east-central areas through central interior locations, the southern Ganges Plain and into Gujarat this past weekend. This is likely to mean severe flooding for some locations. This may affect some crops.

CONTINUED DRY AUSTRALIA FORECAST

In Australia, the eastern winter wheat and summer crop areas are likely to remain drier or much drier than normal during the next seven to 10 days. Drought has affected winter wheat in the region and will affect sorghum and cotton if this pattern does not break soon. Western Australia wheat has been in much better condition this season, so far. However, it has recently turned much warmer to hotter and it looks to continue hot and drier this week. This situation will bear watching. The longer-range outlook suggests cooler weather may return to the region late in the 10-day period.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: