DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Large decreases in average retail fertilizer prices were seen the second week of August 2019, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the first time in a couple of years that prices have declined in unison.

Prices for all eight of the major fertilizer were lower from the prior month with half down by a considerable amount.

Leading the way lower were anhydrous and UAN32, which both were down 7% from last month. Anhydrous had an average price of $543 per ton while UAN32 had a price of $295 per ton.

Prices for both MAP and UAN28 were also significantly lower, down 6% from the previous month. The phosphorus fertilizer (MAP) had an average price of $503 per ton and UAN28 was at $258 per ton.

Prices for the remaining four fertilizers were down from last month, but not by a significant amount. DAP had an average price of $493/ton, potash $387/ton, urea $413/ton and 10-34-0 $475/ton

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.45/lb.N, anhydrous $0.33/lb.N, UAN28 $0.46/lb.N and UAN32 $0.46/lb.N.

Digging through the DTN/Progressive Farmer retail fertilizer price data shows it has been awhile since prices for all fertilizers have moved lower in the same week. You have to go all the way back to the second week of September 2017 -- almost two full years -- to find a week in which prices for all eight fertilizer were lower.

Each week, I write down how many fertilizers are lower and higher in price, and it took me seven steno note pads to find this information.

Looking at this time frame, during the entire months of August and September 2017, a majority of retail fertilizer prices were lower, according to the data. This represents the last major move lower in the retail fertilizer market.

Prices for a couple fertilizers have either moved or could move into interesting territory soon if this price trend continues.

UAN32's price, for example, was at $295 per ton last week, the first time the fertilizer's price has been under $300 per ton since the first week of December 2018 when the price was at $293 per ton.

The price of MAP last week was at $503 per ton. If it drops below $500 per ton, it would be the first time since the fourth week of February 2018 when the price was at $497 per ton.

Retailers have told me quite often over the last couple of years that retail fertilizer prices never "reset" themselves, which was why prices were higher. Previously, the normal pattern was for retail fertilizer prices to move higher in the fall and spring due to increased demand and then decline in the summer and winter with lower demand. However, prices haven't followed this pattern for the last several years for some reason.

Now, for the first time in almost two full years, it appears retail fertilizer prices are seeing a uniform price decline. In a world full of negative agricultural news, this might be one piece of good news for crop producers if prices continue to decrease.

With prices significantly lower this week, one fertilizer's price is now lower than it was a year ago. MAP is now 1% less expensive from last year at this time.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers continue to be higher compared to last year. DAP is 1% higher, 10-34-0 is 7% more expensive, both potash and UAN32 are now 9% higher, UAN28 is 11% more expensive, anhydrous is 13% higher and urea is 14% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 13-17 2018	487	508	356	363
Sep 10-14 2018	491	518	362	380
Oct 8-12 2018	501	523	365	393
Nov 5-9 2018	506	529	368	407
Dec 3-7 2018	501	529	369	410
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	508	533	381	407
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	513	536	384	407
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	511	535	386	404
Mar 25-29 2019	509	534	385	401
Apr 22-26 2019	497	530	388	408
May 20-24 2019	497	527	392	428
Jun 17-21 2019	496	532	392	435
Jul 15-19, 2019	497	532	392	430
Aug 12-16 2019	493	503	387	413
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 13-17 2018	446	481	233	271
Sep 10-14 2018	449	487	238	278
Oct 8-12 2018	452	488	238	280
Nov 5-9 2018	458	517	245	287
Dec 3-7 2018	457	524	249	293
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	460	571	267	304
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	468	585	271	313
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	470	596	270	318
Mar 25-29 2019	470	597	269	318
Apr 22-26 2019	483	594	268	315
May 20-24 2019	487	595	270	314
Jun 17-21 2019	487	589	270	318
Jul 15-19, 2019	485	585	275	317
Aug 12-16 2019	475	543	258	295

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/CZ)

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