DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level chart features a strong high latitude upper level ridge centered over the Aleutians and southwest Alaska nosing towards the coast of British Columbia. We note an upper level low to the east of Alaska in northwest Canada. The jet stream moves from northwest to south-southeast between the ridge and the trough over western Canada into a weak trough over southwest Canada and then turns east over theU.S. to a second trough over the Midwest and finally east-northeast over the northeast U.S. and into the Atlantic. This jet is expected to send some fairly cool weather, for the time of year, southward into the Canadian Prairies this weekend and eventually a modified version will reach into the Midwest next week. Subtropical ridging on this chart is mostly in the Atlantic and in the Pacific but not much over the U.S. region at this time.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in poor agreement early in this period, fair to poor agreement late in the period. I am using a little more of today's ensemble runs of the US and European models, which is somewhat closer to the European model than to the U.S. operational model.

The European model features a cool high pressure system moving over the Midwest region early in the outlook period and then a weak upper level trough moving into the Midwest late in the period. A secondary trough is also shown tracking over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains late in the period. The model shows the cold front moving more rapidly through the Midwest which leads to a quicker end to the rain chances in the Midwest but it also increases the chance for rain in the central plains region during the period. The midwest temperature pattern would be cool early and warm later using this model.

The U.S. model does not show much of a surface high over the Midwest region during the first couple days of the period. This model features a significant upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest and into the plains region late in the outlook period. This suggest temperatures not very cool in either the Midwest or the central plains region and it also pushes the rain chance further to the north over the western Midwest and the northeast plains region.

The ensemble run of the U.S. model is a compromise between the operational runs of the U.S. and European models and is preferred, along with the ensemble run of the European model. This suggests somewhat cooler than normal weather for the Midwest region, bias towards early part of the 6-10 day period. It also suggests that near to above normal rainfall would mainly occur in the east-central plains and west Midwest regions. The rainfall anomalies on the Ensemble runs are not as great as on either operational run.

The mean maps at 8-10 days have some features that are similar and important in the longer range outlook. We see significant upper level trough in far northwest Canada and a mean trough over southwest of Alaska. This suggests a west to east flow with embedded short wave troughs moving over southern Canada, underneath these troughs. This is a changeable temperature pattern for Canada but not very cool for the U.S. region. There is also no sign, on these maps, of the ridge that currently is over Alaska. This also takes the pressure off, at least for this period, in terms of additional cold weather threats moving southward towards the U.S. The Canadian model has elements of the U.S. and European models. The Canadian features a fast west to east flow mainly in Canada which again suggests changeable temperatures in Canada and warmer temperatures in the U.S.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...122 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...29 AT GRAND LAKE (HARBISON MEADOW) CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TAMPA FL 2.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in poor agreement early in this period, fair to poor agreement late in the period. I am using a little more of today's ensemble runs of the US and European models, which is somewhat closer to the European model than to the US operational model.

The European model features a cool high pressure system moving over the Midwest region early in the outlook period and then a weak upper level trough moving into the Midwest late in the period. A secondary trough is also shown tracking over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains late in the period.

The model shows the cold front moving more rapidly through the Midwest which leads to a quicker end to the rain chances in the Midwest but it also increases the chance for rain in the central plains region during the period. The midwest temperature pattern would be cool early and warm later using this model.

The US model does not show much of a surface high over the Midwest region during the first couple days of the period. This model features a significant upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest and into the plains region late in the outlook period. This suggest temperatures not very cool in either the Midwest or the central plains region and it also pushes the rain chance further to the north over the western Midwest and the northeast plains region.

The ensemble run of the US model is a compromise between the operational runs of the US and European models and is preferred, along with the ensemble run of the European model. This suggests somewhat cooler than normal weather for the Midwest region, bias towards early part of the 6-10 day period. It also suggests that near to above normal rainfall would mainly occur in the east-central plains and west Midwest regions. The rainfall anomalies on the Ensemble runs are not as great as on either operational run.

The mean maps at 8-10 days have some features that are similar and important in the longer range outlook. We see significant upper level trough in far northwest Canada and a mean trough over southwest of Alaska. This suggests a west to east flow with embedded short wave troughs moving over southern Canada, underneath these troughs. This is a changeable temperature pattern for Canada but not very cool for the US region. There is also no sign, on these maps, of the ridge that currently is over Alaska. This also takes the pressure off, at least for this period, in terms of additional cold weather threats moving southward towards the US. The Canadian model has elements of the US and European models. The Canadian features a fast west to east flow mainly in Canada which again suggests changeable temperatures in Canada and warmer temperatures in the US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Dryness has recently increased stress to reproductive and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans from the central Iowa area eastward. However there has been no significant heat during this period so this should limit the overall impact on crops. Showers that have occurred this week along with a cooler trend should help ease stress, however more rain is still needed. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas and the cooler weather moving in will not help the situation. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage. Cooler temperatures this week will slow development of crops. The longer range outlook remains uncertain but the trend from yesterday is less threat of further cold weather during the 6-10 day period.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Some stress to spring grains and oilseeds in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies due to dryness but recent rain will help ease stress. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Crop development remains behind normal and a fall freeze could mean significant damage or quality reductions. This is especially the case as it concerns canola. Temperatures averaging below normal during the next few days will further slow development of crops. There is even a slight risk for some frost in central and north Alberta as temperatures may dip into the 30s F this weekend. The highest risk is in the Peace River area this weekend. The longer range outlook remains uncertain today but compared to yesterday it is not as cool looking.

EUROPE: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures will ease stress to corn in western and central Europe. Hot, dry weather in July coincided with tasseling and silking corn. This, along with dry soils will lead to some yield losses.

Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to soybeans and sunflowers. Hot, dry weather in July will have some impact on soybean and sunflowers although these crops are more heat tolerant than corn. Southeast Europe has recently turned hotter. A cold front should cool temperatures in the short range but more hot weather may return following this cool weather, increasing the risk to any late filling crops.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Southwest and central Ukraine turned hot early this week, highs in the 90s F. This heat moved into east Ukraine and south Russia at the end of this week. Crops were doing well prior to this heat so a brief period of heat is not overly concerning at this date.

However it will be watched.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Rain during early August has helped ease dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Central and eastern areas have seen a turn to hot/dry weather following favorable weather in July. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages. The east is expected to turn cooler while the west turns hot again during the next 3-5 days.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Good/excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans in northeast China. Episodes of light to moderate rain and cooler weather this weekend will mostly favor developing crops. Drier, hotter weather is expected through central China but following recent heavy rains this is not overly concerning.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Widespread monsoon rain continues to favor developing oilseeds and cotton in west-central India. Also key winter grain and oilseed areas of northwest India have had significant rain this week.

This helps to build irrigation for this fall planted crop.

AUSTRALIA: Wheat approaching reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is in need of significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. The chance for this rain to occur remains low during the next 10 days. In addition there is at least some risk for unusual late winter cold weather in this area next week. This will need to be watched as flowering wheat could be hurt if temperatures fall to 32 F.

BRAZIL: Some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing temperatures in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Moderate to locally heavy showers through central and southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri mainly during the night. Light to locally moderate showers in Minnesota. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal north, near to above normal south.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry during the daytime hours today. Scattered thundershowers at night will mainly occur in northern Missouri, possibly southern most areas of Iowa. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers late Saturday or during Saturday night. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near normal Saturday, near to above normal south and east and below normal northwest Sunday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Monday. Chance for thundershowers Monday night into early Tuesday in southern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. A few thundershowers Tuesday night into early Wednesday will tend to favor southern and southwest locations. Dry or with only a few scattered thundershowers through southern areas Thursday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

East: Dry or with only a few light showers today. Scattered thundershowers tonight will mainly occur in southern Illinois. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers Saturday or Saturday night will tend to favor west and north Illinois and north Indiana. Dry or with only a few afternoon or evening showers favoring north and west areas Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier during Monday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during Tuesday. Dry or with only a few thundershowers in southern areas Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, cooler Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Northern Plains highlights...

Scattered light to locally moderate showers, favoring central and east areas, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, below normal central and east.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing in Montana today or tonight. Light to locally moderate showers during Saturday, heaviest in the east. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below to well below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and above normal south Monday, below normal Tuesday, above normal west and below normal east Wednesday, above normal west and central areas and near to below normal east Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal in the west, below to above normal in the east, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Grains) - Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light rain in northern Alberta during the past 24 hours. A few very light showers through central and southeast Saskatchewan and in Manitoba.

Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Light to moderate showers north, a few light showers south, today or tonight. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers east and northwest areas Saturday. Dry or with only a little light rain northwestern areas Sunday.

Temperatures average below normal west and near normal east today, below to well below normal Saturday, below normal north and east and near normal southwest Sunday. The low temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s F as far south as the Edmonton area of Alberta this weekend, low 30s may occur in the Peace River region with the chance for frost or light freeze conditions.

The northwest portion of Saskatchewan's crop belt may also see upper 30s F this weekend.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only light showers favoring north and east areas Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, near normal west and below normal east Tuesday, above normal west and near normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to be warmer early in this period, cooler again later in the period. However it does not look as cool late in this period as it will be this weekend. Rainfall near to below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal in Manitoba.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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