DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level charts feature a broad upper level ridge over the southwest portion of the U.S., extending from California eastward into west and south Texas. The jet stream moves west to east north of this ridge over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies before dipping southward over the northern plains and Midwest regions and moving eastward off the middle Atlantic coast region. The high latitude ridge continues over the Gulf of Alaska and southwestern Alaska while also nosing towards the northern British Columbia coast. A somewhat weaker high latitude ridge is shown extending from west of Greenland through northwest Greenland, across the North Pole to Siberia. High latitude low centers are west of northern Alaska, over far northwest Canada and over eastern Hudson Bay into northeast Canada. A broad trough covers the eastern part of North America, bottoming out over Tennessee. A short wave trough is moving east-southeast through the jet stream over the northern plains region.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement only during the first day or two of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I favor a compromise between the models today but with a slight bias towards the European model. The period begins with the upper level ridge covering the southern and central Rockies and the central plains regions. This ridge is shown somewhat stronger on the European model. The European model shows a strong short wave trough moving west to east across west and central Canada early in the period, reaching to Hudson Bay and Ontario later in the period. This causes a dip in the jet stream over the northern plains and upper Midwest early in the period and eventually over the northern and eastern Midwest later in the period. When this happens the ridge shifts back to the west into the Rockies mountain area towards the end of this period. This is a cool outlook for the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and the upper Midwest late in the 6-10 day period. The Ensemble run from the European model is not as deep with the trough and therefore has less cool weather associated with it. The U.S. model shows a much weaker trough moving east across northern Canada, across Hudson Bay and towards Greenland during the outlook period. This trough never really impacts the jet stream east of the Miss river in the U.S. As a result the model is much warmer for the U.S. regions and even in the Canadian Prairies the coolest weather actually occurs prior to the 6-10 day period when using this model.

At 8-10 days the mean map from the US model shows a weak trough along the west coast and an even weaker trough over the northeast U.S. with a weak to moderate ridge over the Midwest. The mean map from the European model has the ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the Great Lakes region and the northeast U.S. The Canadian Model is similar to the European model, although not as strong with the jet stream over the Great Lakes region. I am leaning in the direction of the European/Canadian models today but with some uncertainty.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...120 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...28 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BATON ROUGE LA 2.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement only during the first day or two of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I favor a compromise between the models today but with a slight bias towards the European model.

The period begins with the upper level ridge covering the southern and central Rockies and the central plains regions. This ridge is shown somewhat stronger on the European model. The European model shows a strong short wave trough moving west to east across west and central Canada early in the period, reaching to Hudson Bay and Ontario later in the period. This causes a dip in the jet stream over the northern plains and upper Midwest early in the period and eventually over the northern and eastern Midwest later in the period. When this happens the ridge shifts back to the west into the Rockies mountain area towards the end of this period. This is a cool outlook for the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and the upper Midwest late in the 6-10 day period. The Ensemble run from the European model is not as deep with the trough and therefore has less cool weather associated with it. The US model shows a much weaker trough moving east across northern Canada, across Hudson Bay and towards Greenland during the outlook period. This trough never really impacts the jet stream east of the Miss river in the US. As a result the model is much warmer for the US regions and even in the Canadian Prairies the coolest weather actually occurs prior to the 6-10 day period when using this model.

At 8-10 days the mean map from the US model shows a weak trough along the west coast and an even weaker trough over the northeast US with a weak to moderate ridge over the Midwest. The mean map from the European model has the ridge over the western US and a trough over the Great Lakes region and the northeast US. The Canadian Model is similar to the European model, although not as strong with the jet stream over the Great Lakes region. I am leaning in the direction of the European/Canadian models today but with some uncertainty.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Dryness has recently increased stress to reproductive and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans from the central Iowa area eastward. However there has been no significant heat during this period so this should limit the overall impact on crops. Showers that have occurred this week along with a cooler trend should help ease stress, however more rain is still needed. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas and the cooler weather moving in will not help the situation. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage. Cooler temperatures this week will slow development of crops. The longer range outlook is somewhat uncertain. See the above discussion. There is at least some risk that cooler weather would return to the area during the 6-10 day period, again slowing development.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Some stress to spring grains and oilseeds in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies due to dryness but recent rain will help ease stress. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Crop development remains behind normal and a fall freeze could mean significant damage or quality reductions. This is especially the case as it concerns canola. Temperatures averaging below normal during the next few days will further slow development of crops. There is even a slight risk for some frost in central and north Alberta as temperatures may dip into the 30s F Saturday morning. The longer range outlook is more uncertain today. It may also feature below normal temperatures as well, especially if today's European model is more correct.

EUROPE: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures will ease stress to corn in western and central Europe. Hot, dry weather in July coincided with tasseling and silking corn. This, along with dry soils will lead to some yield losses.

Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to soybeans and sunflowers. Hot, dry weather in July will have some impact on soybean and sunflowers although these crops are more heat tolerant than corn. Southeast Europe has recently turned hotter. A cold front should cool temperatures in the short range but more hot weather may return following this cool weather, increasing the risk to any late filling crops.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Southwest and central Ukraine has turned hot early this week, highs in the 90s F. This heat should shift into east Ukraine and south Russia at the end of this week. Crops were doing well prior to this heat so a brief period of heat is not overly concerning at this date. However it will be watched.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Rain during early August has helped eased dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Central and eastern areas have seen a turn to hot/dry weather following favorable weather in July. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages. The east is expected to turn cooler while the west turns hot again during the next 3-6 days.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Good/excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans in northeast China. Low pressure associated with former typhoon Lekima spread more rain into northeast China crop areas early this week, heavy rains over south and central areas. This system brought heavy rains and high winds to east-central China during the weekend, likely leading to severe flooding and some wind damage to crops.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Widespread monsoon rain continues to favor developing oilseeds and cotton in west-central India.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather continues to impact wheat in the minor growing areas of northeast Australia causing a further decline in wheat conditions. Wheat approaching reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is in need of significant rain soon to prevent even further declines to prospects.

Some beneficial rains in southern New South Wales and northeast Victoria for vegetative wheat. However more is needed to maintain crop conditions. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the remainder of Victoria, South Australia and West Australia. However more rain would benefit.

BRAZIL: Some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing temperatures in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: A few light showers, favoring northeast and central Iowa, during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday, mainly due to below normal daytime highs.

East: Scattered light to locally moderate showers, favoring north and east-central areas, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday, except the northwest was somewhat cooler.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Showers and thunderstorms later today or during tonight will be heaviest over west-central and southwest locations. Light to locally moderate showers in the north, drier otherwise, during this time. Showers or thundershowers Friday or Friday night may occur mainly in northern Missouri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday or more likely Saturday night will favor south and east-central areas. Temperatures average below to well below normal today, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring extreme east and extreme north areas Sunday and Monday. A few isolated to widely scattered thundershowers during Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry today. Scattered thundershowers may develop through southern Illinois and into southern Indiana later Friday or during Friday night. Only a few light showers elsewhere in the region Friday. Mainly dry early Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms later Saturday or Saturday night will favor west-central and northwest areas. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Sunday and Monday, favoring western and northern areas. A few to scattered thundershowers, favoring western and southern areas, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal north, above normal central and south. Highs in the upper 80s to the low 90s through central and south areas during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Northern Plains highlights...

Light to locally moderate showers moved through west and central North Dakota during the night. Little elsewhere in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal west, below normal central and east.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Light to moderate showers favoring southern and eastern areas today into tonight. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring eastern areas, tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring eastern areas Tuesday. Temperatures average near normal west and below normal east Sunday, above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, especially through eastern areas. Rainfall near to below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Grains) - Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: A few sprinkles or light showers favoring southern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in the northwest, below normal elsewhere in the region, yesterday.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Showers or light rain through northern Alberta into northwestern Saskatchewan today or during tonight and across northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba during Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring north and east areas Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal northwest, near to below normal central and near to above normal east today, below normal west and central areas and near to above normal east Friday, below to well below normal Saturday. The low temperatures Saturday morning may be fall into the 30s F through north and central Alberta.

Days 4-6: Showers favoring northwest and north-central areas during this period. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers otherwise during this period. Temperatures average mostly below normal through northern areas during this period, somewhat more variable through the south.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during this period. Rainfall near to below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal in Manitoba.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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