DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level charts feature the sub-tropical ridge centered over the southern Rockies and Texas but extending to the southern Delta and northward to the central Rockies and the southwestern plains. North of this ridge we see a relatively strong jet stream moving across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies before dipping southward over the northern plains and Midwest regions and moving eastward off the east coast south of New England. A high latitude ridge is also shown over the Gulf of Alaska, southwest Alaska and northwest British Columbia. A second, somewhat weaker, high latitude ridge is in northeast Canada and west Greenland. This ridge bridges across to another center in Siberia. High latitude lows are shown in northwest Canada and northeast Canada, west and south of the Greenland ridge. The trough associated with the northeast Canada low extends southward over eastern Canada into the northeast U.S.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in only fair agreement today, fair to poor agreement as it concerns the Canadian Prairies Region and the northern plains. I favor a blend between the models today as it concerns this area. The subtropical ridge is expected to be located over the south and central Rockies and the southwestern plains early in the outlook period. This ridge moves east and weakens somewhat as it moves over the Midwest region late in the period. The European model is much more progressive with this movement and also with the movement of the trough behind the ridge. The European model shows the trough moving across the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and into the upper Midwest and Ontario Canada at the end of the period. A strong ridge is depicted over the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic at the end of the period, using this model. The U.S. model is much less progressive with features during the period. The trough on the U.S. model never gets much beyond western Canada, the ridge reaches the eastern Midwest but does north reach the east coast and a weak trough is indicated in the western Atlantic. As a result of these differences the European model features colder conditions over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains during the 6-10 day period and also much wetter weather for the northeast plains, the northwest Midwest and the Great Lakes region. A look at the ensemble runs and also the Canadian model suggests that more progression of features may be the way to go with the trough and ridge, however not as much as the European model suggests and not as strong with the anomalies later in the outlook period.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...119 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...24 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…EVANSVILLE IN 2.10 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement today, fair to poor agreement as it concerns the Canadian Prairies Region and the northern plains.

I favor a blend between the models today as it concerns this area.

The subtropical ridge is expected to be located over the south and central Rockies and the southwestern plains early in the outlook period. This ridge moves east and weakens somewhat as it moves over the Midwest region late in the period. The European model is much more progressive with this movement and also with the movement of the trough behind the ridge. The European model shows the trough moving across the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and into the upper Midwest and Ontario Canada at the end of the period. A strong ridge is depicted over the eastern US and the western Atlantic at the end of the period, using this model. The US model is much less progressive with features during the period. The trough on the US model never gets much beyond western Canada, the ridge reaches the eastern Midwest but does north reach the east coast and a weak trough is indicated in the western Atlantic. As a result of these differences the European model features colder conditions over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains during the 6-10 day period and also much wetter weather for the northeast plains, the northwest Midwest and the Great Lakes region. A look at the ensemble runs and also the Canadian model suggests that more progression of features may be the way to go with the trough and ridge, however not as much as the European model suggests and not as strong with the anomalies later in the outlook period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Dryness has recently increased stress to reproductive and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans from the central Iowa area eastward. However there has been no significant heat during this period so this should limit the overall impact on crops. Showers that have occurred this week along with a cooler trend should help ease stress, however more rain is still needed. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas and the cooler weather moving in will not help the situation. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage. Cooler temperatures this week will slow development of crops. The longer range outlook is somewhat uncertain. See the above discussion. There is at least some risk that cooler weather would return to the area during the 6-10 day period, again slowing development.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Some stress to spring grains and oilseeds in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies due to dryness but recent rain will help ease stress. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Crop development remains behind normal and a fall freeze could mean significant damage or quality reductions. This is especially the case as it concerns canola. Temperatures averaging below normal during the next 3-5 days will further slow development of crops. The longer range outlook is more uncertain today. It may also feature below normal temperatures as well.

EUROPE: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures will ease stress to corn in western and central Europe. Hot, dry weather in July coincided with tasseling and silking corn. This, along with dry soils will lead to some yield losses.

Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to soybeans and sunflowers. Hot, dry weather in July will have some impact on soybean and sunflowers although these crops are more heat tolerant than corn. Southeast Europe has recently turned hotter. A cold front should cool temperatures in the short range but more hot weather may return following this cool weather, increasing the risk to filling crops.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Southwest and central Ukraine has turned hot early this week, highs in the 90s F. This heat continues today but should shift into east Ukraine and south Russia at the end of this week.

Crops were doing well prior to this heat so a brief period of heat is not overly concerning at this date. However it will be watched.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Rain during early August has helped eased dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Central and eastern areas have seen a turn to hot/dry weather following favorable weather in July. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Good/excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans in northeast China. Low pressure associated with former typhoon Lekima spread more rain into northeast China crop areas during the past 24 hours, heavy rains over south and central areas. This system brought heavy rains and high winds to east-central China during the weekend, likely leading to severe flooding and some wind damage to crops.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Widespread monsoon rain continues to favor developing oilseeds and cotton in west-central India.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather continues to impact wheat in the minor growing areas of northeast Australia causing a further decline in wheat conditions. Some beneficial rains in southern New South Wales and northeast Victoria for vegetative wheat. However more is needed to maintain crop conditions. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the remainder of Victoria, South Australia and West Australia. However more rain would benefit.

BRAZIL: Some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing temperatures in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Scattered showers in eastern Minnesota during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal yesterday.

East: Light showers with some heavier in Wisconsin, Ohio, northern Kentucky and extreme south areas of both Indiana and Illinois. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today and early Thursday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring western and southern areas during Thursday night into Friday and again Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures average below normal today and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring east and south areas during Saturday. A few showers and thundershowers Sunday, also favoring eastern areas.

Mainly dry Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest during Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

East: Dry or with only isolated light showers today. Mostly dry Thursday.

Scattered showers may develop in western areas during Friday or Friday night.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers mainly occurring in Wisconsin, north and west-central Illinois Saturday and Saturday but possibly also occurring in Michigan. Mainly dry during Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Northern plains highlights...

A few light showers northeast areas yesterday. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday, mainly due to well below normal daytime highs.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers, favoring east and south areas, during Thursday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas Friday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Thursday, near to below normal west and southeast and near to above normal northeast Friday.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier possible during Saturday.

Showers may linger in the east, drier central and west, during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Grains) - Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Dry or with only a few sprinkles or light showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Mostly dry today and most of Thursday. Showers or light rain favoring northern areas during Thursday night. Showers or light rain north and southwest areas during Friday, little elsewhere in the region Friday.

Temperatures average near normal northwest and below normal elsewhere in the region today, mostly near normal Thursday, below normal west and near to above normal east Friday.

Days 4-6: Chance for mostly light showers in the east and northwest areas Saturday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures average below to well below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, below normal northwest and near normal elsewhere in the region Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during this period. Rainfall near to below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal in Manitoba.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio