DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge between Alaska and Siberia. A trough over northwest Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada extending into northern Greenland. This is producing hot temperatures in far western Canada, cool central, mild/warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough off the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough in the eastern US. And a ridge in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located in the southwest U.S., southwest atlantic and western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge between Siberia and Alaska. A trough over northwest Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada extending into western Greenland.

This will produce mild/cool temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. A flat ridge over the central U.S. and a trough over southeast Canada and the northeast U.S. This pattern will feature frequent but limited shower activity in the Midwest along with variable temperatures, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. This is similar to yesterday's run. Today's run of the U.S. model is different from yesterday with no significant ridging. It now features a low amplitude jet stream with embedded disturbances across the northern U.S. This would actually be a little cooler and unsettled pattern for the Midwest than what the European model is indicating.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU…114 DEG AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU..36 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY… 3.10 INCHES AT MIAMI BEACH FL

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the period. Both models feature a trough along or off the coast of the northwest US. And a low amplitude jet with embedded disturbances over southern Canada and the northern US. The center of subtropical high pressure is over the southwest US on the European model, the south-central US on the US model. This pattern will feature frequent but limited shower activity in the Midwest along with variable temperatures, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for pollinating and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans in the western Midwest with no significant heat stress and mostly adequate moisture. Dry weather in the eastern Midwest is stressing corn and soybeans. However, the lack of any significant heat is limiting stress. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions or developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage.

EUROPE: Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to corn in western and central Europe.

Hot, dry weather in July coincided with tasseling and silking corn. This, along with dry soils will lead to some yield losses. Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to soybeans and sunflowers. Hot, dry weather in July will have some impact on soybean and sunflowers although these crops are more heat tolerant than corn. Favorable crop conditions in southeast Europe.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Some stress to spring grains in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Some stress to canola in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies.

Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Some of the crop is as much as 2 weeks behind normal development raising concerns over an early fall freeze causing damage.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for corn, sunflowers and soybeans in Ukraine and Russia.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Rain eased dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Central and eastern areas have seen a turn to hot/dry weather following favorable weather in July. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Good/excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans in northeast China. Improving moisture conditions on the North China Plain.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Widespread monsoon rain continues to favor developing oilseeds and cotton in west-central India.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather continues to impact wheat in the minor growing areas of northeast Australia causing a further decline in wheat conditions. Some beneficial rains in southern New South Wales and northeast Victoria for vegetative wheat. However more is needed to maintain crop conditions. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the remainder of Victoria, South Australia and West Australia. However more rain would benefit.

BRAZIL: Some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing temperatures in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Mostly dry weather observed. Temperatures variable.

East: Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s f.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Dry weather Friday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Saturday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. Some moderate to heavy totals are possible in northern areas. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, variable Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

East: Mostly dry weather Friday-Saturday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Sunday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to below normal.

Northern Plains highlights...

Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Episodes of scattered light showers with locally heavier Friday-Saturday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Monday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Mostly dry weather Tuesday.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday.

Temperatures variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday, variable Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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