DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...118 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...25 AT GATES PARK MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LINCOLN NE 3.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair to good agreement during the last couple of days of the period. The US model more trough moving across the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains during the period than does the European model. I favor a blend between the models today with a little more weight giving to the US model.

The main features of the weather pattern during the 6-10 day period will be the mean ridge position from the southwest US through the south and central Rockies region to the southwestern plains, short wave troughs moving west to east across southwest and central Canada and the northern plains region to the north of this mean ridge and a weak through between the eastern Midwest and the northeast US regions.

Temperatures are expected to average above normal due the southwest ridge from the southwest US through the central and south Rockies to the southwest plains. Temperatures vary somewhat through the northern plains, Canadian Prairies region and the Midwest due to the short wave troughs moving through the jet stream north and northeast of the ridge position. Temperatures mainly near normal through the Delta and in the southeast US. Rainfall near to mostly below normal central and south plains, Delta, the southeast US and the south and east Midwest. Through the northwest Midwest, the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies region I am using a near to below normal category as well but would not be surprised if rainfall in these areas came in a little higher.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: A trough of low pressure moving through the Central Bahamas is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and to the east of the trough axis. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days while the trough moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional development is not anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Weekend rainfall and cooler temperatures early this week will ease stress to developing corn and soybeans especially pollinating corn after recent hot weather. However crop development remains well behind normal in most areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable weather for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. However crop development for corn and soybeans is significantly behind normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM): The winter wheat harvest is nearing completion in Kansas and is increasing in Colorado and Nebraska.

Recent hot weather stressed corn and soybeans especially pollinating corn. A turn to cooler temperatures during the next few days will ease stress.

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGAR BEETS): Key growing areas in France are expected to see above to well above normal temperatures during the next 3-4 days, somewhat more variable temperatures after that.

Showers later this week but little otherwise. Crops in France need more rain to support favorable development at this time.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Crops mostly will benefit from episodes of showers during the next week to ten days. A variable temperatures pattern with periods of cool and warm weather may keep development behind normal during this period. However, early this week it will be turning warmer, for a time.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Corn and sunflower in south and east Ukraine, west and south Russia will benefit from periodic shower activity and a variable temperature pattern during the next 10 days. Warmer weather during the weekend and early this week before it turns much cooler again.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Hot, dry weather has recently impacted spring wheat areas from the Volga valley of Russia across the Urals region to the northwestern Kazakh area. The area is likely to see variable temperatures but little rainfall this week. Longer range forecasts suggest cooler temperatures and some increasing in rainfall early next week.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered moderate to heavy thunderstorms favoring north and east areas during the weekend period. Somewhat drier, hotter through southwest and central areas. Crops will benefit from somewhat cooler temperatures and scattered shower activity during this week.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers occurred from east and south areas of West Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra through south and central areas of Gujarat. This included key growing areas for soybeans, groundnuts, cotton and sugarcane. The region is likely to see additional moderate to heavy rain during the middle to later part of this week. Improving conditions for crop development at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Showers and thunderstorms, 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier, through northern and southwestern areas... heaviest south-central and southeast Nebraska and western Missouri. Light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to near normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Moderate to heavy thunderstorms developed during the weekend period through north and east Wisconsin, Michigan, northeast and extreme south Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Scattered light showers through northwest and central Illinois. Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday, near normal north and above normal central and south Sunday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Highs mostly the 70s today, upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Light showers with isolated heavier Thursday night or during Friday, possibly favoring northern areas. Mainly dry Saturday. A few thundershowers Saturday night from northern Iowa through southern Minnesota.

Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Showers may linger near the Ohio river during early Monday, dry later Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal.

Highs mostly the 70s today, 70s and low 80s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northwestern areas Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to slightly above normal during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal, possibly near to above normal northwest areas.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers south, a few light showers with isolated heavier north, during the weekend period.

Temperatures averaged below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal west and below normal central and east today, above normal west and near normal east tomorrow, above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, through east and south areas, during Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to slightly above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period but not very far from normal. Rainfall near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal through eastern areas.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred through southern Nebraska during the weekend period. Light to moderate thundershowers with locally heavier in east-central and southeast Colorado, west and extreme east Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and northeast Oklahoma. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Saturday with highs 95 to 105F from northern Kansas and southern Colorado southward. Temperatures below normal north and central areas and continued above normal south during Sunday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry or with only lingering light showers in southernmost areas today. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today and Tuesday, near to mostly below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below to near normal east during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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