DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada. A weak ridge over the Davis Straits between Canada and Greenland and a weak trough over eastern Greenland. This is producing mild/warm temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the western and central U.S. and a trough along the east coast. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the southwest U.S. and in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will produce mild/warm temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A low to moderate amplitude jet stream will embedded disturbances across southern Canada and subtropical ridging dominating much of the U.S. This will produce near to above normal temperatures and mostly below normal rainfall in the Midwest due to the ridging. This will be favorable to corn and soybeans at this time as they have been impacted so far this growing season by cool, wet weather.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal northwest, below normal south and east. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days due to the impact from Barry, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...120 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...30 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ALLENTOWN PA 2.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

Wednesday July 17th to Sunday July 21st.

The mean maps from the ensemble runs of the US and European models covering the 6 to 10 day period are in fair to good agreement. The mean trough position during this period is expected to be over western Canada and the northwestern US. This trough is of moderate to somewhat strong intensity. The sub-tropical ridge continues to build northeast from the southern Rockies into the central plains region during this time and is of moderate to somewhat strong intensity, above 5910 meters on average but below 5940 meters. The European model is somewhat stronger and a little more towards the southwest Midwest region with this ridge. A strong jet stream, for the time of year, tracks from the Pacific Northwest east-northeast over the northern plains, through Great Lakes region and then dips southward over the northeast US. This southward dip is more pronounced on the European model. The trough-ridge-trough pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures except in the northwest US and west Canada where it will be cooler. The greatest departures from normal on the warm side would occur through the southwest and central plains due to the building ridge and from the northern Midwest to the northeast US just to the south of the strong jet stream. There appears to be some weakness in the ridge through the southeast US region which may mean more seasonal temperatures for the area.

Rainfall during this period will be associated with the remnants from TS Barry which by next Wednesday should be moving through the east-central or northeast US, the deepening trough through the Pacific Northwest and disturbances moving rapidly through the strong jet stream from the northeast plains through the northern Midwest. A weak monsoon flow is also indicated west of the ridge, which could mean showers from northwest Mexico into the southern Rockies region. Other than these areas rainfall chances are rather limited.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 90.2 West or 95 miles southwest of the mouth of the Miss river. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).

A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, a few hours ago, indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane tonight or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEANS,WINTER WHEAT): Heavy to extreme rains due to tropical storm and then depression Barry moving in off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause flooding, extreme flooding in areas of heaviest rain. Current indications suggest rainfall potential of 10-15 inches in southeast Louisiana, 6-10 inches in southern Mississippi, 4-6 inches in northern Mississippi, west Tennessee and east Arkansas. However, the axis of the heaviest rain could shift a little either way, west or east.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): The winter wheat harvest and development of corn and soybeans will benefit from a trend towards somewhat hotter, drier weather in the Midwest during the next 4-5 days. Rainfall from TS Barry, if it reaches the southeast Midwest next Tuesday, is not overly concerning. Especially as it looks drier and warm to hot again during the 6-10 day period.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. Crops will benefit from adequate soil moisture, periods of showers and warmer temperatures during the next 6-10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Improving conditions for mature wheat and wheat harvests during the next 6-10 days due to somewhat hotter temperatures and little rainfall. Summer crops will do well with favorable irrigation supplies and adequate soil moisture. Some stress to summer crops during the hottest part of the day during this period, western areas early in the period and eastern areas as well later in the period.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGAR BEETS): Rainfall and temperatures forecasts in key growing areas of France, Belgium, the Netherlands and western Germany during the next week to ten days will be watched. Corn, sunflower and sugar beets are under stress due to recent heat and dryness, although currently it is cooler. It appears that west and south France will trend towards above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during this period, key growing areas for corn and sunflower. Northeast France, Benelux and Germany will see some showers and cooler temperatures in the short range and warmer, drier weather during the 6-10 day period. Key growing areas for sugarbeets.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Crops through northern and eastern areas will benefit from periodic showers and a variable temperature pattern during the next week to ten days, although somewhat warmer temperatures on a consistent basis might be preferred. Southwest crop areas trend towards drier conditions again during this period and this is somewhat concerning.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWER): Corn and sunflower in south and east Ukraine and south Russia will benefit from increasing rain activity and cooler temperatures during the next 5-7 days.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for corn and soybean growth at this time. Periodic showers and limited hot weather will favor developing crops.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN/GROUNDNUTS/RICE/COTTON): An unusual mid-summer pattern for the region. An upper level trough over the North China Plain has been causing scattered thunderstorms to occur in northeast and some central areas and is responsible for cooler temperatures. Typically by this time the southeast China ridge has developed and forced the seasonal, Monsoon, rainfall northward into the area. The trough is holding off the monsoon flow, for now. The risk is that once the trough weakens and lifts out of the area a period of heat and dryness may develop until the Monsoon can become better established. This would threaten developing summer crops in the area.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): A trend towards dry, hotter weather appears to be setting up over key growing areas of west-central India...Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Madhya Pradesh. Generous monsoon rains during the past two weeks should support favorable development of soybeans, cotton and sugarcane in West Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra for awhile. However in cotton and groundnut areas of west Gujarat soil moisture is much more limited. Stress to these crops will quickly become high. Possibly limiting the ability of these crops to recover even if it rains well later in the Monsoon season. Heavy rains have also occurred in Uttar Pradesh during this week. This area produces sugarcane and rice this time of year and winter wheat late in the year. Dryness remains a concern in southeast India crop areas but this is not that unusual during the middle Monsoon period.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry or with only isolated showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today. Thunderstorms may develop in a narrow band from southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa through southern Minnesota overnight tonight. Dry or with only a few light showers northeast areas Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures 88 to 92 today, 86-93 Saturday, 89-94 Sunday...warmest western and southern areas.

Mostly dry Monday. A few thundershowers at night favoring north and northwest areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers from northern Iowa northward during Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures low to middle 90s Monday, upper 80s to middle 90s Tuesday, upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier, favoring northwestern areas, today through Sunday. Temperatures mostly in the 80s today, 80s and low 90s tomorrow and Sunday..warmest western areas.

Mostly dry Monday. Chance for rain or showers and thundershowers through southeast areas during Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry elsewhere in the region Tuesday. Showers may develop in northern areas Wednesday. The rain chance in the southeast areas is due to the remnant low associated with tropical storm Barry and is somewhat uncertain. Temperatures average upper 80s to low 90s, except middle 80s may occur if rain reaches southeast areas as expected.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to above normal north, near to below normal central and south.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry or with only isolated showers favoring east and south areas yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southeast areas today. Mostly dry Saturday. Light to locally moderate showers may occur Sunday, favoring northeast Montana, northern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

Temperatures average near normal west and below normal east today, above normal west and near normal east Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers Tuesday into Wednesday. The heaviest of this activity may favor south and east areas. Temperatures average near normal west and above normal east Monday, near to above normal south and east areas and somewhat cooler northwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal east and south and near to below normal northwest during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and southeast areas, near to above normal northeast.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperature variable. Mostly above normal northwest, far west and south areas. Highs 86 to 93F southern Nebraska and Kansas, 90-97F elsewhere in the region... except in southeast Colorado where readings topped out at 101F yesterday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures low to upper 90s each day, hottest western areas.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Tuesday or Wednesday. The activity may favor western areas.

Temperatures low to upper 90s F each day, possibly 100F in some locations.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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