DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...116 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...29 AT SNIDER BASIN WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…NEW ORLEANS LA 2.60 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The mean maps from the ensemble runs of the US and European models covering the 6 to 10 day period are in fair to good agreement today. These maps feature a strong upper level trough from the eastern Gulf of Alaska into far west Canada, a moderate ridge from the southern Rockies to the southern plains, a weak trough from the lower Miss river to south of the Ohio river, a weak ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. We also note a strong jet stream running from the base of the west Canada trough across the northwest and far north-central areas of the US and dipping a little to the south over the northeast US area. This is mostly a near to above normal temperature pattern for the US, except in the PNW where it will be cooler. Warmest areas in the southern Rockies to southwest plains associated with the ridge and in the northern Midwest to the northeast US just south of the strong northern jet stream. Rainfall potential during the 6-10 day period is highest in the Pacific Northwest to the west Canada area associated with the strong trough in the northeast Pacific/west Canada area and from the Great Lakes to New England, associated with the strong jet stream. The wild card during this period is where and how heavy is the rainfall of what by then will be a remnant low left over from whatever forms in the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.

There is likely to be heavy rains in the Delta this weekend or early next week.

From there there is much more uncertainty. The European model holds this package together a bit more than the US model as it moves through the southeast Midwest next Tuesday or Wednesday. However, light steering currents in the area where the system is likely to be mean uncertain tracks and speed of movement.

The national weather service rain forecast center brings the heavy rain potential to the southeast Midwest on their 6 to 7 day forecast but I have more uncertainty in this outlook.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance (Not yet a depression) was centered near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West or 125 MI SSE of the mouth of the Miss river. The system is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late Friday.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEANS,WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rains due to tropical moisture moving in off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause flooding and potential wind damage to crops. Severe flooding is likely in Louisiana and southern Mississippi, possibly more widespread than that.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): The winter wheat harvest and development of corn and soybeans will benefit from a trend towards warmer, drier weather in the Midwest during the next 5 to 6 days. We will be watching the tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico for possible impact in this region beyond the 5 day forecast period. At this time this chance is rated as low.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. Although recent cooler temperatures will have slowed development of crops, warmer weather during the coming days will be more favorable.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Improving conditions for mature wheat and wheat harvests during the next 5-7 days due to warmer to somewhat hotter temperatures and little rainfall. Summer crops will do well with favorable irrigation supplies, adequate soil moisture and no extreme heat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGAR BEETS): Rainfall and temperatures forecasts in key growing areas of France, Belgium, the Netherlands and western Germany during the next week to ten days will be watched. Corn, sunflower and sugar beets are under stress due to recent heat and dryness, although currently it is cooler. The outlook suggests that temperatures in the region will vary somewhat during the next 10 days. Rainfall mostly below normal. Dryness remains a significant risk to crops in these areas.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Crops through northern and eastern areas will benefit from periodic showers and a variable temperature pattern during the next week to ten days, although somewhat warmer temperatures on a consistent basis might be preferred. Southwest crop areas trend towards drier conditions again during this period and this is somewhat concerning.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWER): Temperatures are expected to be cooler during the next week to ten days. Rainfall chances increase as well, especially in eastern Ukraine and the Black Soils region but also in southern Ukraine and south Russia as well. Improving conditions for sunflower and corn.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for corn and soybean growth at this time. Periodic showers and limited hot weather will favor developing crops.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN/GROUNDNUTS/RICE/COTTON): An unusual mid-summer pattern for the region. An upper level trough over the North China Plain is causing scattered thunderstorms to occur in northeast and some central areas and is responsible for cooler temperatures. Typically by this time the southeast China ridge has developed and forced the seasonal, Monsoon, rainfall northward into the area. The trough is holding off the monsoon flow, for now. The risk is that once the trough weakens and lifts out of the area a period of heat and dryness may develop until the Monsoon can become better established. This would threaten developing summer crops in the area. However, crops have likely benefited from the recent rain and cooler temperatures.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Recent rains have improved conditions for crop areas of the central interior and the Ganges plains in north India. However, key growing areas of Gujarat did not see this rain nor are they likely to during the next week or more. This is concerning for cotton and groundnuts grown in that area. Also of note, the northwest part of south India and the central interior region that have received generous rains recently may be trending drier and hotter during the next 5-7 days. This area grows soybeans, sugarcane, sorghum and cotton. Crops should do well after recent rains but this break in the rain will need to be watched.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in northern areas and a few thundershowers in west-central Missouri. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, near to above normal south.

East: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers in east and south Illinois, Indiana and northwest Ohio yesterday or overnight. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday. High temperatures mostly 89 to 96F.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today and most of Friday. A few showers may occur in northern areas Friday night. A few showers favoring north and east areas Saturday.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern areas, during Monday. Scattered to widely scattered light and moderate showers Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near to above normal. Highs mostly upper 80s to low 90s F.

East: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average low to middle 80s today and Friday, middle 80s to very low 90s Saturday.

Mainly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring southeast areas, Sunday and Monday. Showers and thundershowers favoring southern and eastern areas during Tuesday or Tuesday night. This may become locally heavy, depending on the influence of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico system...mainly near the Ohio river. Temperatures upper 80s to low 90s each day.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to above normal northwest and southeast areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures average below normal west and above normal east for the morning lows, above normal west and below normal central and east for the afternoon highs.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast and south areas today or tonight. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring southern areas during Friday. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal west and northeast and below normal southeast today, near to above normal west and near to below normal east tomorrow, above normal west and central areas and near normal east Saturday.

Scattered showers favoring Montana and western North Dakota during Sunday or Sunday night. Mainly dry Monday. Scattered to widely scattered showers favoring central and east areas Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. High temperatures upper 80s to low or middle 90s Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal east and somewhat more variable west during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and southeast areas, near to above normal northeast.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Scattered light showers with locally heavier in east Kansas, east and far west Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and northeast Texas. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal north, above normal south. Highs ranging from the low 80s in southwest Nebraska to 100F in southwest Oklahoma and north-central Texas yesterday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Dry or with only lingering light showers in southwest areas today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal west and near to below normal east tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west, near normal east. High temperatures mostly 90 to 96F Sunday and Monday, 92 to 97F Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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