DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska and a trough across northern Canada extending into northern Greenland. This is producing variable temperatures in western and central Canada, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific extending into the western U.S. A trough over south-central Canada. A weak ridge over the plains. A weak trough over the eastern U.S. A wek ridge over eastern interior Canada and along the east coast of the U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over northwest Mexico and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through the 10 day period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska. A trough over Canada and some ridging over Greenland. This will produce mild/cool temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western U.S. A west to east flow across the north-central and northeast U.S. A weak trough over the south-central U.S. and a trough over the western atlantic. The combination of the west to east flow in the north-central U.S. The weak trough in the south-central U.S. and the trough off the east coast of the U.S. will limit rainfall in the central U.S. and allow for warmer temperatures. This will favor developing corn and soybeans in the Midwest and maturing and harvesting wheat in the southern plains.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...112 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...25 AT GATES PARK MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BROWNSVILLE TX 3.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period as it concerns the upper level charts. There are some differences as it concerns the surface weather during the period.

This is a split jet stream pattern. The northern branch of the jet stream will feature a building ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska and a deepening trough over north-central and central Canada. The southern branch of the jet stream features a trough over the Pacific northwest, a weak trough over the south-central US lifting northward into the Midwest during the period and a weak ridge over the Midwest early in the period shifting into the southeast US and then the southwest Atlantic later in the period.

The shower activity is most likely to occur east of the PNW trough and south of the Canada trough, especially if the Canada trough is also associated with cooler temperatures. The above normal rainfall is mostly over the northern plains but may extend to the northwest and north-central Midwest and northward into the southern Canadian Prairies. This is on both models but a little more expansive on the European model. There indications of near to above normal rainfall in the central Rockies region on the US model and in southeast Texas on the European model. This is likely due to the southern plains trough mentioned above. We may need to keep an eye on the western Gulf of Mexico during this period for signs of any tropical development associated with this southern trough. The models feature near or below normal rainfall elsewhere in the key US growing areas, well below normal over the southeast US. However, I am a little concerned that once the ridge weakens over the eastern plains and Midwest regions and the weak trough moves in it might lead to more thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are indicated at near to above normal over the Midwest and through the southeast to east-central US on both models. The European model is indicating below normal temperatures through the northern Rockies, the northwest and southeast plains and east and south Texas. The US model shows below normal temperatures through the southeast plains and east Texas but mostly near normal over the northern Rockies and the northwestern plains. The models both show near normal temperatures over the Delta.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGAR BEETS): West and central Europe is expected to experience above to well above normal temperatures during the next 5 days with little rainfall. The hottest temperatures, highs upper 90s and low 100s F, should occur through southern and central France during Wednesday through Friday. However low 90s F will also occur as far north as northeast France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland at times. Reports suggest that record highs for the month of June may be met in some locations of France. Stress to filling wheat and rapeseed and early developing corn, sunflower and sugar beets will be high. The hot/dry pattern seems to relax somewhat during the 6-10 day period helping to ease stress to crops somewhat but this is an area that we will need to keep an eye on during the balance of the summer.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Warmer, drier weather is needed for developing corn and for developing and any remaining planting of soybeans. A turn to warmer temperatures during the next 10 days will favor developing crops. Drier weather helps ease the flooding risk, however in north and east areas there remains some risk for local thunderstorms to occur.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat although warmer weather would benefit. The region is likely to turn warmer during this week, especially over central and east areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Heavy rain, hail and high winds are reported to have caused damage to wheat during this past weekend. Some fields reported major hail damage. Unfavorable conditions also for mature wheat and wheat harvesting. The region is expected to trend drier and warm to hot during this week and into next week. This should help improve conditions for maturing wheat and wheat harvests.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Episodes of rain, showers and thunderstorms late last week and during the weekend period. Improving soil moisture conditions for developing crops. Cooler temperatures slowed development, however. The region is expected trend warmer during the next 6-10 days, especially central and east areas. Episodes of scattered showers may still occur in the region during the next 5-7 days. Crops in the region need continued warmer temperatures and periodic showers to recover from early season drought conditions.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWER): As the ridge has shifted westward into Europe this will allow for cooler and then much cooler weather to move into Ukraine, west and south Russia. Dryness and above normal temperatures has recently stressed filling winter crops and developing summer crops. Cooler temperatures and scattered showers will help ease stress to these crops.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): The region turned hotter and drier at the end of last week and early this week, especially central and southern areas. Crops have adequate or better soil moisture at this time so should be able to withstand a brief hot/dry spell. Especially in early growth stages. Showers and cooler temperatures should redevelop in the area during the next few days.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/CORN/GROUNDNUTS/RICE/COTTON): The North China Plain is expected to remain drier and hotter during the next 6 to 10 days or so. This is due to a delay in seasonal rains reaching into this area from the south. This may favor mature winter crops and harvesting but it will increase stress to developing summer crops in the region. Increasing usage of irrigation will be needed to prevent significant stress to crops.

INDIA: As of June 26th the Indian Met department shows the leading edge of the Monsoon at about 21 degrees north along the west coast, now a little north or where it should have been at June 10th. The Monsoon front has also moved westward across northern India into central Uttar Pradesh. This is a little west of where it should have been on June 15th. Satellite pictures over the region show large gaps in the cloud cover and rainfall. Not very well organized at this time. The leading edge of the Monsoon is now in a position where it may bring thunderstorms to at least a portion of the key growing areas for groundnuts, soybeans, cotton and sugarcane in west-central India. However, until such time as the overall Monsoon improves this rainfall will be more hit or miss for this area. Temperatures will be hot during periods of little rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: A few thunderstorms, some containing hail and high winds, in north-central and east Nebraska, southern most Iowa and northwest Missouri yesterday or overnight last night. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

East: Light to locally moderate thundershowers in central Illinois, light showers in northeast Illinois, southern Wisconsin and southern Michigan yesterday or overnight. High winds associated with a few of the thundershowers, especially in central Illinois. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring north and west-central areas today, northeast areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Thursday and Friday. Highs 85 to 92F Thursday, 88-95F Friday...hottest western areas.

Mostly dry or with only a few scattered thundershowers in Minnesota during Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few afternoon or evening thundershowers during Monday, again favoring northern areas. Temperatures average above to well above normal. High temperatures 91 to 97F Saturday and Sunday, 88 to 93F Monday.

East: Dry or with only a few light or locally moderate showers favoring north and west areas this afternoon or tonight. Scattered thundershowers mainly in Wisconsin, northern Illinois and western Michigan during Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers in the north Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Friday.

Dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers favoring north and east areas Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal west, above to near normal east, during this period. High temperatures 88 to 93F, except mostly 83 to 88 in Michigan and Ohio.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, near normal later. Rainfall near to above normal north, near to below normal central and south.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry yesterday. Light rain or showers moved across northern areas of South Dakota during the night. Temperatures averaged below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring south and west areas today or tonight. Scattered showers and thundershowers mainly in Montana and western North Dakota during Thursday and Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal tomorrow, above normal Friday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring central and eastern areas during Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered showers favoring southern areas during Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered showers favoring south and west areas during Monday. Temperatures average near normal west and above to well above normal east Saturday and Sunday, mostly near normal Monday. High temperatures Saturday 70s and low 80s Montana, low 80s to low 90s elsewhere in the region.

Highs 70s to upper 80s Sunday, 70s to low 80s Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, above normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to above normal, except possibly near to below normal in South Dakota.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Scattered thunderstorms, 0.25-1.00 inch, occurred in southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas yesterday or last night. Mainly dry or with only isolated showers elsewhere in the region. A few thunderstorms may have contained hail and high winds. Temperatures averaged near to above normal north-central and southwest areas, somewhat below than normal otherwise.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and northeast and near to below normal southeast today, above normal west and north and near normal southeast tomorrow and Friday. High temperatures reach the low to the upper 90s F during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light or locally moderate afternoon or evening thundershowers Monday. Temperatures 93 to 100F Saturday, 88 to 97F Sunday, 86 to 96F Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal north and west, near to below normal southeast, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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