DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

July corn closed up 3/4 cent per bushel and December corn was up 1/4 cent. July soybeans closed down 5 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cent, September Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 3 3/4 cents.

The September U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.158 at 95.645. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 107.35 points at 26,620.19. August gold is up $8.20 at $1,426.40, July silver is down $0.02 at $15.36 and July copper is up $0.0225 at $2.7280. August crude oil is up $0.06 at $57.96, August heating oil is up $0.0149, August RBOB is up $0.0256 and August natural gas is down $0.003.

Corn:

December corn closed up a quarter-cent at $4.57 1/2 Tuesday, eking out a slight gain after USDA lowered its good-to-excellent crop rating for corn from 59% to 56% as of June 23. The rating is among the lowest seen for this date in the past 20 years and was pulled down by poor conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt. Missouri had the lowest state rating of 28% good to excellent, followed by Ohio at 39% and Michigan at 40%. In the Western Corn Belt, Nebraska held the highest good-to-excellent rating of 77%. Friday's Acreage report from USDA will give us the first credible attempt at estimating planted acres in 2019. Even though the work was done in early June before planting was finished, there is a good chance this imperfect estimate will decide which direction prices take between Friday and harvest. Dow Jones' survey of analysts puts most guesses between 86 million and 89 million acres, but the uncertainty level is high in this unprecedented planting season. Fundamentally, an 89 million acre planting estimate is neutral for corn prices and may result in some profit-taking. Obviously, the lower the estimate, the more bullish the impact on future prices. Technically, the trend in corn remains up with cash prices among the highest in five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.29 Monday, 18 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.16, while August gold is trading up $8.20, its fourth consecutive day higher.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 6 1/4 cents at $9.26 1/2 Tuesday, the seventh consecutive day at roughly the same price. Late Monday, USDA said 85% of soybeans were planted, but the figure lacks meaning, knowing prevented planting acres are also included in the total. Fifty-four percent of soybeans were said to be rated good-to-excellent, the worst start in over 20 years. As with corn, the first credible, yet imperfect estimate of soybean acres will come in Friday's acreage report from USDA. A Dow Jones survey shows most guesses between 84 million and 85 million acres but the uncertainty level is also high for soybeans. The bullish hope currently seen in November soybean prices above $9.00 is that perhaps plantings and yield will be down enough in 2019 to take some of the excess off of the 1 billion bushels of old-crop carry. With U.S. soybean exports struggling and trade terms still not good with China, the bullish argument for soybeans remains difficult to make, but there is room for surprise in Friday's reports. In the fields, the seven-day forecast is looking drier with higher temperatures on the way, which is more favorable for crop conditions. Technically, the trend is up in cash soybeans and prices are not far from their one-year high at $8.41. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.34 Monday, down from its highest price in a year and 75 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cent at $4.78 1/4, a relatively quiet day of trading after getting a boost on Monday from news of hot temperatures in Europe this week. The forecast is still hot for Europe, but has been tempered by news that southern Russia has a chance for helpful showers the next five days. Late Monday, USDA said 15% of winter wheat has been harvested, mostly in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas. Kansas was reported 5% harvested, and it is helpful that the seven-day forecast looks drier for both the southwestern U.S. Plains and for the eastern Midwest. The Pacific Northwest is also getting closer to harvest, but Montana will have to wait with only 45% of crops headed. USDA said 75% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent with no major problems cited. The situation in Europe deserves monitoring, but so far in 2019, threats to major wheat regions have been limited and that is keeping bearish pressure on wheat prices. Technically, the trend is currently up for cash SRW wheat and sideways for HRW and HRS wheats. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.46 Monday, down from its recent three-month high and 20 cents below the July contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.23, back near its highest price in 10 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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