DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 55 higher. The dollar index is 20 lower. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are weaker with crude 0.30 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 1.80 lower.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs before fading a little bit into the a.m. session with spreads weakening. The forecast looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, before potential pattern changes into the end of the month. Ethanol margins will remain tight, with the blenders being squeezed more, with ethanol futures trying to follow corn to a bigger extent with flat trade this a.m. The weekly export inspections were only at 653,875 metric tons. The weekly crop progress is expected to show planting near complete depending on how many acres are expected to be prevented planting or go to beans or another crop since it is so late. Crop ratings are expected to be steady to down with emergence getting close to the average pace. On the July nearby chart, support is the 10-day at $4.30, with the new high printed last night at $4.64 resistance. With the new high today, then more than a dime correction, and a light rebound at this juncture, it will be an important close today for the chart.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade moving back towards the top end of the contract range. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher, and oil up 40 to 50 points. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal just above $325. World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap. Fieldwork will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans. Weekly export inspections were inline at 675,302 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show emergence passed 50%, giving us a condition report, with planting passing the two-thirds complete mark. The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.95, with next resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $9.14.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher with trade following row crops higher as HRW harvest expands on the Plains. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is swinging back to Kansas City overnight, getting back to 59 cents so far before relaxing again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with maturity still lagging overall. The dollar moved back above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains mixed. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. Weekly export inspections were softer at 375,365 metric tons. Weekly crop progress will likely show steady conditions for winter and spring wheat, with winter harvest remaining behind pace, and spring wheat emergence close to normal. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then the 10-day at 4.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.92 as resistance.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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