DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Hog Prices Tumble Late Friday

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Strong pressure has continued to develop in hog trade with triple-digit losses quickly developing late Friday. This may add increased long-term pressure ahead of the long holiday weekend. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade. July corn futures are 11 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 109 points higher with NASDAQ up 33 points.


Live cattle futures are steady to moderately lower with increased pressure developing in all but front-month June futures. Growing concern of expected growth in cattle on feed numbers is causing traders to take protection in front of the report and long holiday weekend. With markets closed Monday, traders will have to wait until Tuesday before reacting to the report, which may add increased volatility through the entire complex. Cash cattle trade remained quiet with no additional bids seen Friday. Cash trade is expected to be done for the week in all areas, with prices steady to $2 per cwt lower than last week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.95 higher (select) and up $0.71 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 64 total loads reported (28 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).


Feeder cattle futures have moved firmly lower in late day trade with prices 22 to 90 cents per cwt lower as traders prepare for the upcoming cattle on feed report. Expectations that sharp increases in cattle placements will be seen in the afternoon cattle on feed report has eroded any previous support and added a weaker market trend.


Active pressure has quickly moved into lean hog futures trade through the last couple hours of trade Friday. The concern that markets will remain closed over the next three days is sparking increased uncertainty through the entire lean hog complex surrounding the relationship between the U.S. and China. Even though volume in the complex remains extremely light late Friday, the focus on market protection is pushing prices $2 to $2.50 per cwt lower at the end of the week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $2.52 at $77.96 per cwt with the range from $72.00 to $78.53 on 5,095 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values continued higher following strong gains in rib primal cuts. Pork cutouts added $0.90 per cwt at $83.52 per cwt with 167 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/22 is $84.36, down 0.03, with a projected two-day index at $84.02, down 0.34.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com


Rick Kment