DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 60 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 20 lower. Energies are flat to weaker. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 2.00 lower.

CORN

Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade pulling back towards the upper end of the range with storms moving through the belt again last night, and little other fresh news. Wet weather is expected to remain in place for much of the western and central Corn Belt keeping the slow pace slow with rising temps will help emergence in spots, and the second week a little less wet potentially. Ethanol margins are negative on a spot basis with ethanol futures unable to keep pace with corn with only slight gains this a.m. and the energy complex selloff narrowing blender margins. Basis has seen selling pressure from farmer movement. Mexico bought 113,000 metric tons on the daily wire. On the July nearby chart support is the 200-day at $3.86 3/4 with the 100-day at $3.81 below that, and the with the next level of resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.99, and then the recent high at $4.00.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade still working to escape the lower end of the range with weather concerns and trade not knowing how to handle the MFP announcement yet. Meal is flat to 1.00 higher and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal still remaining below $300 still capping strength. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, with the export wire quiet this week. Fieldwork should generally remain slow in the near term but more progress is likely into next week with little incentive for farmers to push right now along with acres possibly shifting to corn or milo with the corn\soybean ratio the narrowest in 8 years and the trade deal doesn't look to switch acres into soybeans yet. The July chart support is the $7.98 lower Bollinger Band with the $7.91 low below that, and the resistance the 10-day at $8.26, which we are just above, with the next round the 20-day at $8.31, which we are tested but failed to hold yet again.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 10 to 13 cents higher with spreads swinging back to favor Chicago after narrowing the first half of the week with disease and demand concerns dominating along with spillover support from the row crops. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched with dryness in the Volga Valley expected to be eased in the near term, with spring wheat planting still catching up with disease issues in the winter wheat from wet weather. The dollar is back at the upper end of the range. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $4.26 with the 100-day at $4.61 the next round up.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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