DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a ridge over southern Greenland. This is producing mild/warm weather in western Canada, mild/cool central, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong trough over the western U.S. extending into the northern plains. A migratory trough over the northeast U.S. A strong ridge over the south-central and eastern U.S. including the Gulf of Mexico and southwest atlantic and a trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature mostly ridging extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. To the south of this ridging the polar vortex will be located over southern Canada. This will produce cool/cold temperatures across most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Some ridging in the eastern pacific. A broad trough over the central and southern U.S. and some ridging over the gulf states and southwest atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern for most of the central U.S. as disturbances move along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. Only in the far western plains could rainfall be more limited next week due to the speed of movement of systems. Temperatures will be cool in the north, variable central, warm in the south.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 6-10. The Delta states will see mostly above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT CASTOLON BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK TX LOW THU...18 AT PIKES PEAK SUMMIT CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SPRINGFIELD MO 4.29 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period today, although there is some difference on the details. I favor a blend between the models today to smooth out any differences. I also have used a little more of the ensemble mean maps than the operational maps from each model.

The strong southeast US ridge is shown weakening and flattening out over the Gulf of Mexico early in the outlook period. It may try to move back north into the southeast US states very late in the period. The southwestern trough weakens somewhat during the period but does remain on the maps through the end of the period. The strong polar trough will be centered over the Hudson Bay area for much of this period but may weaken somewhat later in the period.

The flatter ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico and the weaker and further west trough in the southwest US does tend to reduce the inflow of Gulf moisture and allow for less overall coverage of scattered thunderstorms in the extended range, beyond the 5 day period, and less very heavy rainfall. Please note, some areas will still see thunderstorm activity, just not as widespread as is occurring currently. It also suggests a more variable temperature pattern.

The strong trough over the Hudson Bay area and Ontario Canada maintains a cooler pattern for the eastern Canadian Prairies and the northeast plains but does allow for a warm up in the western areas of the northern plains and the western areas of the Prairies, especially later in the period when this trough weakens. Drier than normal also for these areas, although there is a weak upper level trough and surface low in the area at the end of the period.

The southeast US and at least the east and south Delta region will likely continue drier and warmer or much warmer than normal during the outlook period... even with a weaker and somewhat flatter ridge.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS: Wet weather disrupts and delays spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Cold temperatures slow germination and early development. Some improvement may become possible during the 6-10 day period.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Excessive rainfall continues to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting. Corn planting progress, as of last Monday, was the lowest on record for the date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted. Episodes of rain and thunderstorms will continue for at least another 5 days, centering on the western and northern Midwest. Some improvement may become possible during the 6-10 day period but this is uncertain.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn-soybean-sorghum. An exception to this is in east Colorado where dryness is reported of concern and cold morning lows this week may be of some concern for heading winter wheat.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Mainly dry, warm to somewhat hot weather will improve conditions for planting. Early developing crops will benefit from favorable soil moisture, except in areas of local flooding.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions continue to allow for planting through northwest and central areas this week while in areas closer to the US border and in the Manitoba rain slows fieldwork. Rain will be needed to ensure favorable germination and early development of recently planted crops in many areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Key growing areas in New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures above normal during the next few days and then cooler. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/WHEAT): No significant concerns for filling and maturing second crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm/dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into MGDS may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn but in general should favor the filling crop.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Near general moderate to heavy rain during this past weekend period and Monday. This will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops. Drier, hot weather yesterday and today will be followed by more rain and cooler weather during the weekend and early next week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): The North China Plain has turned very hot at the end of this week while remaining mostly dry. Filling wheat and maturing rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation so there is little concern for these crops. Dry weather favors the planting effort for corn, soybeans, rice and cotton while hot/dry weather depletes available soil moisture. A cold front should break the heat wave this weekend with thunderstorms expected but overall a drier weather pattern with above normal temperatures will continue a little while longer.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet recently, likely slowing spring field work. South and East Ukraine have been drier. Showers moved through eastern Ukraine during the last part of this week. Favorable conditions for winter wheat. Some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet recently. Drier, hotter weather may develop over the eastern Ukraine during the 6-10 day period.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER): A recent increase in rain activity through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas had recently been drier but during last week this area also had needed rain.

INDIA: As it typical for May the region is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The Monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms developed in the west later yesterday or yesterday evening and moved across during the night. The heaviest activity appears to have occurred in Nebraska and Iowa during this time frame. Temperatures averaged below normal north and central areas, near normal south.

East: Scattered showers early yesterday mainly through southeast areas, drier later in the day. Showers and thundershowers have moved over northwest and some west-central areas during the night. Temperatures averaged near normal north, above normal south, yesterday. Highs low 70s northwest to near 90 southeast.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Rain lingers in the north and east areas early today. Showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon or tonight favoring east and south areas. Showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas during Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop during Sunday or Sunday night.

Temperatures average near to below normal north and above normal central and south during this period.

Episodes of showers and thundershowers continue during Monday and Tuesday.

Somewhat drier Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, somewhat cooler Wednesday.

East: Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers from southern Wisconsin, west-central and north Illinois east-northeast to southern Michigan and including northwestern Indiana today or tonight. Episodes of light to moderate showers with isolated heavier will tend to favor central areas during the weekend period. Temperatures average near to below normal north, above normal central and south, today, above to well above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring northern areas during Monday, western and northeast areas during Tuesday or Tuesday night. This activity may be heavy, possibly severe. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal north, above normal central and south, during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, above to near normal east, during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal northwest and southeast areas, near to above normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry yesterday. Light to locally moderate showers through South Dakota and into southern North Dakota during the night. Temperatures averaged below normal during the morning, somewhat more variable during the afternoon.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Light to moderate rain through North Dakota and northern Minnesota today.

Drier Saturday. Light to moderate showers redevelop during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, below normal north and near to above normal south Sunday.

Episodes of light to locally moderate showers will mostly occur in South Dakota Monday and Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west and near to below normal east during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred yesterday or last night from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and west Kansas through central Kansas and across southern Nebraska. Numerous reports of hail and high wind gusts and several reports of tornados during this time. Showers will reach into east Kansas and north-central Oklahoma before the 24 hour rainfall totals are issued. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal north and west-central areas, somewhat warmer east-central and south areas.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Scattered showers and thundershowers during today mainly east and south-central Kansas, north and west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers during the weekend period through most of Kansas and Nebraska, north and west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Drier through eastern Colorado and through southeast areas of the region. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east today, near normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Windy Monday with only a few showers or thundershowers expected. Scattered thundershowers Tuesday mainly north and east areas. Scattered light to moderate showers southeast and south-central areas during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, cooler Tuesday and Wednesday... especially through western areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, cooler early and warmer later. Rainfall should average near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal east-central, southeast and south-central areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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