Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- The continued wet pattern, including the threat of severe thunderstorms today in the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, and more rain next week, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MORE RAIN ACROSS MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for excessive rainfall to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting in the Midwest. Corn planting progress is the lowest on record for this date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted. Episodes of rain and thunderstorms will continue for at least another seven days, possibly longer, centering on the western and northern Midwest. Rain, showers and thunderstorms appear to be heaviest centered on Nebraska and Iowa late in the five-day period. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west and above to near normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

COLD, WET PATTERN AGAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, wet conditions remain disruptive to spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Low temperatures slow germination and early development. In addition, Wednesday's snow in western South Dakota increases stress to livestock.

WET AND COOL IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, wet weather will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest-hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. An exception to these concerns is in east Colorado where dryness is reported of some concern and temperature lows Wednesday may be of some concern for heading winter wheat. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to be near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal, except possibly somewhat drier in northwest and southeast areas.

WARM AND DRY IN DELTA

The Delta will have mostly dry and warm-to-somewhat-hot weather that will improve conditions for planting. Early developing crops will benefit from favorable soil moisture, except in areas of local flooding.

DRY AND COOL IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies have drier conditions that allow planting through northwest and central areas this week, while areas closer to the U.S. border and in Manitoba may see rain slowing progress during the week. Lower temperatures will slow germination and emergence of earlier-planted crops and could burn back any already emerged plants.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS

In Brazil, there are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm, dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into Mato Grosso do Sul may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn, but in general should favor the filling crop.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN UKRAINE

Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet recently, likely slowing spring fieldwork. South and East Ukraine have been drier. Showers and rain should move into eastern Ukraine during the next five to seven days. These are favorable conditions for winter wheat. There's some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet recently.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In eastern Australia wheat areas, New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures will be above normal through five days and then will be lower. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

NORTH CHINA RAINS

In north China, there was general moderate-to-heavy rain during the weekend and Monday. This will provide adequate-to-surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans, but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops. Drier, hotter weather today and Friday will be followed by more rain and cooler weather during the weekend.

HOT, DRY IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

The North China Plain remains caught between the heavy rain to its north and the building monsoon rainfall to the south. This leads to periods of hot, dry weather. Filling wheat and maturing rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation, so there is little concern for these crops. Drier weather favors the planting effort for corn, soybeans, rice and cotton but also depletes available soil moisture.

EUROPE SEES MORE RAIN

A recent increase in rain through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area, but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas had recently been drier, but during last week, this area also had needed rain.

HOT IN INDIA

As it typical for May, India is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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