DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a ridge over southern Greenland. This is producing mild weather in western Canada, variable central cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A strong trough over the southwest U.S. A migratory trough over the north-central U.S. A strong ridge over the south-central and eastern U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the northern gulf coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature mostly ridging extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. To the south of this ridging the polar vortex will be located over southern Canada. This will produce cool/cold temperatures across most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Some ridging in the eastern pacific. A broad trough over the central and southern U.S. and some ridging over the gulf states and southwest atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern for most of the central U.S. as disturbances move along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. Only in the far western plains could rainfall be more limited next week due to the speed of movement of systems. Temperatures will be cool in the north, variable central, warm in the south.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 8-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall above normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 8-10. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT CASTOLON BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK TX LOW WED...10 AT PIKES PEAK SUMMIT CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…RAPID CITY SD 1.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the period, fair agreement late in the period. I favor a blend between the models today.

A significant portion of the western US trough is expected to move across the central plains, western and northern Midwest later in the 5 day period and early in the 6-10 day period. The southeast US ridge is strong early in this period and somewhat weaker later in this time frame. Rain, shower and thunderstorm activity appears to be heaviest centered on Nebraska-Iowa late in the 5 day period and centered on the southeast plains to the southwest Midwest early in the 6-10 day period. Temperatures much warmer south and east of this activity and fairly cool north and west or these locations.

The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period show a strong trough in Canada.

The European model trough is centered over and just east of James Bay Canada while the trough on the US model is centered over or just southwest of Hudson Bay. It is likely to be fairly cool near and west of this trough position. The further east position on the European model allows for a possible warm up in the western Canadian Prairies and the western portion of the northern plains but this is uncertain. The further west position on the US model would keep these areas cool. The northerly flow around the trough allows for continued drier weather in the Canadian Prairies which might also include the northern plains region as well.

The European model holds more trough within the southern branch of the jet stream over the southwestern US which allows for heavier rains in the southern plains region. The US model suggests more of a west to east flow over the central and south plains which would not be as wet in the region.

The mean maps show a somewhat weaker sub-tropical ridge, mainly over the Gulf of Mexico on the European model and also into the southeast US on the US model. This ridge is likely being pushed down by the further east position of the Canada trough, especially on the European model. Less ridge in the southeast and less trough in the southwest might allow for less overall rain and thunderstorm activity in the plains and Midwest regions. However this is highly uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS: Wet weather disrupts and delays spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Cold temperatures slow germination and early development. Snow in western South Dakota increases stress to livestock.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Excessive rainfall continues to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting. Corn planting progress is the lowest on record for this date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted. Episodes of rain and thunderstorms will continue for at least another 7 days, centering on the western and northern Midwest, possibly longer.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Wet weather will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn-soybean-sorghum. An exception to these concerns is in east Colorado where dryness is reported of some concern and cold morning lows yesterday may be of some concern for heading winter wheat.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Mainly dry, warm to somewhat hot weather will improve conditions for planting. Early developing crops will benefit from favorable soil moisture, except in areas of local flooding.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions continue to allow for planting through northwest and central areas this week while areas closer to the US border and in the Manitoba area may see rain slowing progress during the week. Colder temperatures will slow germination and emergence of earlier planted crops and could burn back any already emerged plants.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Key growing areas in New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures above normal through 5 days and then cooler. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/WHEAT): No significant concerns for filling and maturing second crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm/dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into MGDS may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn but in general should favor the filling crop.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Near general moderate to heavy rain during the weekend period and Monday. This will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops. Drier, hotter weather today and Friday will be followed by more rain and cooler weather during the weekend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): The North China Plain remains caught between the heavy rain to its north and the building Monsoon rainfall to the south. This leads to periods of hot, dry weather. Filling wheat and maturing rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation so there is little concern for these crops. Drier weather favors the planting effort for corn, soybeans, rice and cotton but also depletes available soil moisture.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet recently, likely slowing spring field work. South and East Ukraine have been drier. Showers and rain should move into eastern Ukraine during the next 5 to 7 days. Favorable conditions for winter wheat. Some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet recently.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER): A recent increase in rain activity through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas had recently been drier but during last week this area also had needed rain.

INDIA: As it typical for May the region is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The Monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light rain and strong winds northwest and north areas yesterday. Showers at night mainly northern Missouri and extreme southeast Iowa. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal north and central areas, near normal south, yesterday.

East: Showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.00 inch and locally heavier, through north and central Illinois, north and central Indiana and southwest Michigan yesterday or during the night. Strong winds and isolated hail and maybe a tornado with these storms. Scattered light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in Indiana, Michigan and western most Ohio during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal, warmest west and south areas.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry during the daytime hours today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, possibly favoring western locations. Showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern and southern areas Friday, southern and east-central locations again Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mainly dry during the daytime hours of Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday, possibly favoring western and northern areas.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas during Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near normal north and above normal elsewhere in the region Sunday and Monday, near to below normal north and west and above normal southeast Tuesday.

East: Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern and southern areas today. Scattered thunderstorms northwest and a few thundershowers east during Friday. Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier during Saturday or Saturday night, heaviest north and central Illinois, north and central Indiana. Temperatures average near normal north and above normal elsewhere in the region today and Friday, above to well above normal during Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered light and locally moderate showers during Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers mainly in northern areas Monday, especially northwest areas. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop through western and northeast areas Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near to above normal north, above normal central and south, during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, above to near normal east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Windy with light to locally moderate rain through South Dakota, southern and eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota yesterday... except southwest South Dakota had snow and rain yesterday. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal, especially as it concerns daytime highs across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry during the daytime hours today. Showers and rain, 0.25-0.75 inch, tonight into Friday. Drier again during Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal today and Friday, not as cool but still below normal Saturday.

Light to moderate rain or showers favoring western and southern areas Sunday or Sunday night, eastern areas during Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this period, although there is a slight chance that western areas will be warm late in this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal south, near to below normal north.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Thunderstorms with numerous reports of tornados in northeast Oklahoma, southwest, central and northeast Missouri yesterday or overnight. Also clipping the extreme southeast corner of Kansas. Windy but drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal through north and central areas, above normal through the south.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Thunderstorms this afternoon or tonight from the Texas Panhandle, west and north Oklahoma through central and east Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers through southwest, central and east areas Friday and Saturday. Drier north, west-central and also southeast locations. Temperatures average below to well below normal north and west and above normal southeast today, near to below normal west and above normal east tomorrow and Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday or Sunday night, favoring west, central and northeast areas. Dry or with only a few afternoon or evening thundershowers during Monday. Scattered thundershowers develop through eastern and southeast areas Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near normal west and south and above normal elsewhere in the region Sunday and Monday, below normal west and near normal east Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal, except possibly somewhat drier northwest and southeast areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.